{"as_of":"2026-10-31","record_rule":"Every run completed on the production API under method 1 (multiverse-1) is on the record. None can be removed.","price_noise":{"median_pts":7,"p90_pts":29,"predictions":47,"runs":10,"measured":"2026-10-07"},"runs":11,"predictions":52,"resolved":0,"pending":52,"hit_rate":null,"tripwires":{"signposts":52,"warned":{"yes":0,"of":0},"splits":{"yes":24,"of":52},"pointed":{"yes":0,"of":0},"direct":{"signposts":0,"pointed":{"yes":0,"of":0}},"context":{"signposts":0,"pointed":{"yes":0,"of":0}},"runs":{"pointed_right":0,"of":0}},"maps":{"judged":0,"covered":{"yes":0,"of":0},"sharp":{"yes":0,"of":0},"partitioned":{"yes":0,"of":0},"success":{"yes":0,"of":0}},"brier":{"n":0,"mean":null,"coin_baseline":0.25,"n_paired_with_control":0,"mean_paired":null,"control_mean_paired":null},"severity_lean":{"counted":0,"misses":0,"severe_side_misses":0,"calm_side_misses":0,"lean":null},"entries":[{"run_id":"0ec0fe39","question":"Will brands keep treating public backlash, like Jones Road's naming controversy, Meta's smart glasses lawsuits or the ongoing Sydney Sweeney jeans ad fallout, as free marketing rather than a crisis through the rest of 2026?","recorded":"2026-10-07","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":15,"rough":65,"worlds":[{"value":32,"low":27,"high":40},{"value":38,"low":31,"high":45},{"value":30,"low":25,"high":39},{"value":37,"low":30,"high":44},{"value":48,"low":35,"high":58},{"value":37,"low":31,"high":45},{"value":32,"low":25,"high":40},{"value":32,"low":26,"high":40},{"value":38,"low":32,"high":46},{"value":30,"low":24,"high":37},{"value":37,"low":31,"high":45},{"value":42,"low":36,"high":48}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"By December 31, 2026, a public settlement or judgment with a disclosed payment is reported in a Meta smart glasses lawsuit.","tests":"Separates a narrowly contained Meta legal exception from a broader legal spillover into ad content.","signal":"Meta lawsuit resolution","metric":"Public disclosure of a settlement or court judgment, with a payment amount, in a Meta smart glasses related lawsuit","threshold":"a disclosed settlement or judgment payment becomes publicly reported","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.reuters.com/legal/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"American Eagle Outfitters reports comparable sales growth above 0 percent year over year for fiscal Q3 2026.","tests":"Separates a sales-punished backlash outcome from the backlash as free marketing branches.","signal":"American Eagle sales health","metric":"American Eagle Outfitters comparable (same store) sales growth reported in its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release","threshold":"above 0 percent year over year","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://investor.ae.com","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"By January 31, 2027, a major advertising trade publication reports at least one third of top 100 consumer brands formally treat backlash as a marketing tactic.","tests":"Separates the institutionalized marketing branch from the uneven, minority-adoption branches.","signal":"Trade press adoption count","metric":"Share of top 100 consumer brands described by a major ad trade publication as formally adopting backlash tolerant marketing tactics","threshold":"at least one third of top 100 brands","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-31","source":"https://adage.com","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"No federal law specifically regulating controversial advertising content has been enacted by June 30, 2027, according to Congress.gov.","tests":"Separates the regulatory vacuum branches from any scenario where legal exposure spreads beyond Meta.","signal":"Federal advertising regulation status","metric":"Enactment status of federal legislation specifically regulating controversial or outrage based advertising content, tracked on Congress.gov","threshold":"zero such laws enacted","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.congress.gov","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.95,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"8436e296","question":"As Gen Z gets 44 percent of its daily news from social video feeds and trusts what it sees more than it pays for journalism, will TikTok keep replacing news apps as the midterms approach?","recorded":"2026-10-06","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":42,"rough":28,"worlds":[{"value":36.5,"low":35,"high":38},{"value":34,"low":33,"high":36},{"value":33,"low":30,"high":37},{"value":37,"low":33,"high":40},{"value":33,"low":28,"high":38},{"value":36,"low":33,"high":40},{"value":36,"low":34,"high":38},{"value":35,"low":33,"high":37},{"value":34,"low":31,"high":38},{"value":34,"low":29,"high":39},{"value":35,"low":32,"high":38},{"value":34,"low":32,"high":36}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The TikTok app remains available for download on both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store in the United States on November 3, 2026.","tests":"Separates the Access Disruption Hits Vulnerable Segments branch from branches assuming TikTok stays stable.","signal":"TikTok availability and ownership status","metric":"TikTok app listing status on Apple App Store and Google Play in the United States","threshold":"available versus unavailable/banned","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-03","source":"https://apps.apple.com/us/app/tiktok/id835599320","probability":0.8571428571428571,"probability_control":0.92,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"TikTok's Transparency Center has published an update describing new election-content labeling or civic integrity measures for the 2026 midterms by November 3, 2026.","tests":"Separates the Modest Turnout Decline / trust-repair branch from branches where no cooperative fix emerges.","signal":"Platform election-content labeling","metric":"TikTok Transparency Center published policy updates on election or civic-integrity content labeling","threshold":"published versus not published","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-03","source":"https://www.tiktok.com/transparency","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"At least one AP Fact Check or Reuters Fact Check article verifies or debunks a political claim about the 2026 midterms that originated primarily on TikTok, published before November 3, 2026.","tests":"Separates the Single Disinformation Event Dents Turnout branch from calmer branches.","signal":"Speed of fact-checking a viral political claim","metric":"AP Fact Check or Reuters Fact Check coverage of a TikTok-originated political claim about the 2026 midterms","threshold":"published before election day versus after","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-03","source":"https://apnews.com/hub/ap-fact-check","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"CIRCLE's preliminary national estimate of 2026 midterm turnout among voters aged 18 to 29 is below 36 percent.","tests":"Separates System Holds Despite Fragmentation from the Modest Turnout Decline or Cascade branches.","signal":"Early youth turnout read","metric":"CIRCLE (Tufts University) preliminary estimate of 2026 midterm turnout among voters aged 18-29","threshold":"below 36 percent","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-11-15","source":"https://circle.tufts.edu/","probability":0.6428571428571429,"probability_control":0.82,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Pew Research Center's next News Use Across Social Media Platforms report finds at least 40 percent of U.S. adults under 30 report regularly getting news from TikTok.","tests":"Separates continued TikTok dominance from the Platform War / no-clear-winner branch.","signal":"Gen Z's reliance on TikTok for news","metric":"Pew Research Center News Use Across Social Media Platforms report, share of under-30 adults citing TikTok as a regular news source","threshold":"at or above 40 percent","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-30","source":"https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/news-habits-media/","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Census Bureau's Voting and Registration Supplement reports a 2026 midterm turnout rate for ages 18 to 29 below 30 percent.","tests":"Separates the severe end of the range (near the Access Disruption or Cascade branches) from the more moderate outcomes.","signal":"Official confirmation of youth turnout level","metric":"U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement, turnout rate for ages 18-29","threshold":"below 30 percent","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-05-01","source":"https://www.census.gov/topics/public-sector/voting.html","probability":0.07142857142857142,"probability_control":0.58,"probability_worlds":0.07142857142857142,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":0,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"fc36eba8","question":"As parents open TikTok accounts just to monitor what their teenagers watch, does this 'digital integration' parenting style actually keep kids connected to religion and family, or just delay the moment phones win anyway?","recorded":"2026-10-04","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"TikTok is still downloadable from both the US Apple App Store and Google Play Store on 2026-12-31.","tests":"Separates a world where a regulatory shock disrupts the platform (s3, s5) from one where oversight theater continues on an unchanged app (s4).","signal":"US TikTok availability status","metric":"Whether the TikTok app remains downloadable in the US Apple App Store and Google Play Store","threshold":"removed from one or both US app stores would count as a 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passed","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1748","probability":0.07142857142857142,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.07142857142857142,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":0,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Pew Research Center has published an updated Teens, Social Media and Technology report by 2027-06-30.","tests":"It would give independent outside data on whether trust first parenting (s1) or monitoring illusion (s4) better describes typical households.","signal":"Updated independent research on teen social media and parental monitoring","metric":"Publication of a new Pew Research Center Teens, Social Media and Technology report","threshold":"report published versus not published by date","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/internet-technology/teens/","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"TikTok has published its Transparency Report covering July to December 2026 by 2027-03-31.","tests":"A published report with real enforcement detail would support crisis driven reckoning (s3); silence or vague disclosure would support oversight theater (s4).","signal":"TikTok's own transparency reporting on family safety tools","metric":"Publication of TikTok's Transparency Report covering the second half of 2026, including Family Pairing related disclosures","threshold":"report published versus not published by date","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-03-31","source":"https://www.tiktok.com/transparency","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"2965af4a","question":"As Oura rings, Apple Watches and take home blood panels spread through everyday wellness routines, will consumer spending data through the end of 2026 show health tracking becoming a permanent line item, not a passing fitness trend?","recorded":"2026-10-04","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":3,"rough":18,"worlds":[{"value":7.5,"low":6,"high":9.5},{"value":7,"low":5.5,"high":9.5},{"value":10,"low":8,"high":12},{"value":9.5,"low":8,"high":11.5},{"value":6,"low":4.5,"high":7.5},{"value":10,"low":8.5,"high":12},{"value":9.5,"low":7.5,"high":11.5},{"value":10,"low":8,"high":12.5},{"value":9,"low":7,"high":12},{"value":11,"low":9,"high":13},{"value":8,"low":6,"high":10},{"value":10,"low":8.5,"high":12}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings release, published by October 31, 2026, shows Wearables, Home and Accessories segment revenue up more than 5% year over year.","tests":"Separates durable-growth branches (premium concentrated or legitimacy anchored) from a stalling, fad-like outcome.","signal":"Apple's wearables segment revenue growth for the July to September 2026 quarter","metric":"Year over year revenue growth for Apple's Wearables, Home and Accessories segment","threshold":"above 5% year over year growth","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-31","source":"https://investor.apple.com","probability":0.8571428571428571,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Wearable Device Tracker report for Q3 2026, typically released by mid December 2026, shows global shipments up more than 5% year over year.","tests":"Separates mass market or premium concentrated growth from the external constraints branch where supply limits flatten unit growth.","signal":"Global wearable device shipment growth reported by IDC's quarterly tracker","metric":"Year over year global wearable device shipment growth, Q3 2026","threshold":"above 5% year over year shipment growth","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.idc.com/promo/wearablevendor","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November 2026, released around November 24, 2026, is lower than its October 2026 reading.","tests":"Distinguishes scenarios where confidence drag slows spending from scenarios where legitimacy and habit formation offset confidence wobble.","signal":"Direction of change in the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index","metric":"Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, November 2026 reading versus October 2026","threshold":"a month over month decline","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-11-25","source":"https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The FDA publishes a final guidance document distinguishing general wellness wearables from regulated medical devices by December 31, 2026.","tests":"Separates the internal politics branch resolving quickly, which supports faster insurer and clinical integration, from continued regulatory ambiguity.","signal":"Whether FDA issues clearer rules separating wellness wearables from medical devices","metric":"FDA publication of final guidance on wellness versus medical device classification for wearables","threshold":"publication of a final guidance document","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/digital-health-center-excellence/digital-health-guidance-documents","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Apple's fiscal Q1 2027 earnings release, expected around January 29, 2027, shows Wearables, Home and Accessories segment revenue up more than 8% year over year.","tests":"Tests whether holiday season demand pushes toward the stronger end of the steady growth range or stays flat, which would favor the capped growth branch.","signal":"Apple's wearables segment revenue growth for the holiday quarter","metric":"Year over year revenue growth for Apple's Wearables, Home and Accessories segment, October to December 2026","threshold":"above 8% year over year growth","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-29","source":"https://investor.apple.com","probability":0.6428571428571429,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A major market tracker's full year 2026 wearables spending report, published by February 15, 2027, shows year over year category growth between 6% and 13%.","tests":"Separates confirms or rejects the dominant steady growth, premium concentrated reading against both the fad collapse and mass breakout extremes.","signal":"Annual wearable and connected health device spending reported by market trackers for full year 2026","metric":"Full year 2026 year over year growth in wearable and connected health device spending","threshold":"growth between 6% and 13% year over year","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-02-15","source":"https://www.idc.com/promo/wearablevendor","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"80cee8bb","question":"Will a Democrat win at least one of the five Republican-held US Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio (special election) or Texas in the 3 November 2026 election, as shown by certified results by 15 December 2026? NYTimes/Siena polls of likely voters released 3 October had Peltola 50, Sullivan 43 in Alaska; Talarico 51, Paxton 45 in Texas; Brown 49, Husted 46 in Ohio; Hamilton 45, Marshall 45","recorded":"2026-10-03","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Alaska Division of Elections certified U.S. Senate result, published by December 15, 2026, shows Mary Peltola with more certified votes than Dan Sullivan.","tests":"Separates the near-universal Alaska-flip story lines from the one scenario where Republicans stabilize Alaska and only Ohio flips.","signal":"Alaska Senate certification","metric":"Alaska Division of Elections certified U.S. Senate general election result","threshold":"Peltola's certified vote total exceeds Sullivan's certified vote total","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-results/","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.42,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Ohio Secretary of State's certified result, published by December 15, 2026, shows Sherrod Brown with more certified votes than Jon Husted.","tests":"Separates scenarios where Ohio is the lone flip from scenarios where Ohio holds Republican alongside Alaska.","signal":"Ohio special election certification","metric":"Ohio Secretary of State certified U.S. Senate special election result","threshold":"Brown's certified vote total exceeds Husted's certified vote total","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.ohiosos.gov/elections/election-results-and-data/","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.33,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Texas Secretary of State's certified result, published by December 15, 2026, shows James Talarico with more certified votes than Ken Paxton.","tests":"Separates the multi-pickup story lines (two or three flips) from the single Alaska-only outcome.","signal":"Texas Senate certification","metric":"Texas Secretary of State certified U.S. Senate general election result","threshold":"Talarico's certified vote total exceeds Paxton's certified vote total","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/index.shtml","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.22,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Kansas Secretary of State's certified result, published by December 15, 2026, shows a margin of two percentage points or less between Marshall and Hamilton.","tests":"Tests whether the tied October poll in Kansas translated into a genuinely close certified result or widened as late deciders broke one way.","signal":"Kansas Senate margin","metric":"Kansas Secretary of State certified U.S. Senate general election result margin between Marshall and Hamilton","threshold":"certified margin at or below two percentage points","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://sos.ks.gov/elections/26elec/2026-general-election.html","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Certified results from the relevant state election authorities, compiled by December 15, 2026, show at least one of the five seats won by a Democrat.","tests":"Directly resolves the core question this whole exercise was built to test.","signal":"Overall pickup outcome","metric":"Count of the five named seats (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas) certified for a Democratic candidate","threshold":"one or more of five seats certified Democratic","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/03/us/elections/results-senate.html","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.72,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"a63ef877","question":"Will the UAE or US government publicly present evidence linking Hamam al-Hammami, the Omani co-pilot who attacked the captain of flydubai flight FZ1073 on 30 September 2026, to Iran or an Iran-backed group by 15 December 2026? Evidence means an official statement, charge or filing that names a specific link (direction, funding, training, contact or membership), not an unsupported assertion. On 1 O","recorded":"2026-10-03","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The UAE Public Prosecution or Attorney-General issues an official charge or statement naming a specific Iran or Iran-backed group link to al-Hammami on or before 15 December 2026.","tests":"Separates the narrow charge branch from the lone actor and contradiction branches.","signal":"UAE formally charges al-Hammami with a named Iran link","metric":"UAE Public Prosecution or Attorney-General official statement or charge filing","threshold":"formal charge or official statement naming Iran or an Iran-backed group, versus no such naming","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://wam.ae","probability":0.14285714285714285,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The White House, State Department, or Department of Justice issues an official statement or filing naming a specific Iran link to al-Hammami on or before 15 December 2026.","tests":"Separates any formal US evidentiary action from rhetoric-only paths.","signal":"US government presents formal evidence of an Iran link","metric":"Official US government statement, indictment, or declassified intelligence finding naming Iran","threshold":"formal naming of Iran link versus continued unsupported public remarks only","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.state.gov/press-releases/","probability":0.07142857142857142,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.07142857142857142,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":0,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Israeli security officials publicly state al-Hammami had a confirmed Iran or Iran-backed contact, replacing the lone actor assessment, on or before 15 December 2026.","tests":"Separates the trilateral alignment and contradiction branches from a surprise Israeli reversal.","signal":"Israeli security services reverse the lone actor assessment","metric":"Public statement from Mossad, Shin Bet, or Israeli government naming an Iran link","threshold":"public reversal naming Iran versus continued lone actor framing","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/","probability":0.07142857142857142,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.07142857142857142,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":0,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The UAE Public Prosecution publicly files any criminal charge against al-Hammami on or before 15 November 2026.","tests":"Separates early signal of case tempo ahead of the full 15 December evidentiary deadline.","signal":"UAE files any criminal charge against al-Hammami, regardless of Iran naming","metric":"UAE Public Prosecution charge sheet filing date and content","threshold":"any formal charge filed versus case remaining uncharged","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-15","source":"https://wam.ae","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"No UAE, US, or Israeli government body has issued an official statement, charge, or filing naming an Iran link to al-Hammami by 15 January 2027.","tests":"Separates confirms the lone actor or contradiction branches if the case stays open without resolution a month past the original deadline.","signal":"Case remains formally unresolved past the deadline with no Iran naming","metric":"Absence of any official Iran-naming statement or filing from UAE, US, or Israel","threshold":"continued absence of formal Iran-naming evidence","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-15","source":"https://wam.ae","probability":0.8571428571428571,"probability_control":0.72,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"17edfe18","question":"Will the US Treasury designate the International Criminal Court itself as a sanctioned entity by 15 December 2026, after Reuters and the Wall Street Journal reported on 20 and 21 September that the Trump administration had readied court-wide sanctions? Until now only individual ICC judges, prosecutors and officials have been sanctioned.","recorded":"2026-09-27","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":95,"rough":45,"worlds":[{"value":67,"low":60,"high":74},{"value":72,"low":65,"high":79},{"value":68,"low":61,"high":75},{"value":78,"low":66,"high":88},{"value":78,"low":68,"high":85},{"value":74,"low":61,"high":84},{"value":68,"low":54,"high":80},{"value":68,"low":62,"high":74},{"value":68,"low":62,"high":74},{"value":68,"low":54,"high":80},{"value":70,"low":64,"high":77},{"value":72,"low":58,"high":83}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The OFAC SDN List includes an entry for the International Criminal Court as an organization (not merely individual officials) on or before 15 December 2026.","tests":"Separates paths where designation lands at all from the blocked-or-delayed-by-courts branch.","signal":"Treasury lists the ICC itself, not just officials","metric":"Presence of an International Criminal Court organizational entry on OFAC's Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List","threshold":"entity-level listing appears by the deadline","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/","probability":0.8571428571428571,"probability_control":0.38,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The EU updates the Annex of Regulation 2271/96, the Blocking Statute, to include the US ICC sanctions measure by 15 December 2026.","tests":"Separates euro-banking-survival and narrowed-by-cooperation branches from paths with no EU pushback.","signal":"EU moves to shield the court financially","metric":"EU Blocking Statute (Council Regulation 2271/96) annex update naming a US ICC sanctions measure","threshold":"annex update naming the US measure appears","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:31996R2271","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"OFAC publishes a general license authorizing categories of ICC-related transactions, such as payroll or non-Israel casework, by 30 January 2027.","tests":"Separates licensed-and-cushioned outcomes from a broad unlicensed freeze.","signal":"A broad license softens any designation","metric":"OFAC general license explicitly authorizing categories of ICC-related transactions","threshold":"general license text published","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-30","source":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A US federal district or appellate court issues an injunction that blocks or narrows enforcement of the ICC entity sanctions by 31 March 2027.","tests":"Separates the court-injunction-blocks branch from paths where designation proceeds largely unchecked.","signal":"Courts step in to block or narrow enforcement","metric":"US federal court injunction ruling on ICC entity sanctions enforcement","threshold":"injunction issued","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-03-31","source":"https://www.courtlistener.com","probability":0.8571428571428571,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"89207d6c","question":"With Texas voting on its new Republican-drawn congressional map and the Supreme Court sending Missouri back to its 2022 map on 25 September, will Republicans keep control of the US House in the 3 November 2026 midterms, with Trump's approval at a career-low 32% in the 21 September Reuters/Ipsos poll?","recorded":"2026-09-26","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"seats","calm":12,"rough":-35,"worlds":[{"value":-14,"low":-20,"high":-8},{"value":-16,"low":-24,"high":-8},{"value":-17,"low":-23,"high":-10},{"value":-14,"low":-18,"high":-9},{"value":-14,"low":-8,"high":-20},{"value":-14,"low":-6,"high":-22},{"value":-18,"low":-24,"high":-10},{"value":-17,"low":-24,"high":-10},{"value":-14,"low":-22,"high":-4},{"value":-18,"low":-8,"high":-28},{"value":-16,"low":-22,"high":-10},{"value":-18,"low":-28,"high":-8}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Associated Press's 2026 U.S. House race tracker shows Democrats winning at least 218 seats by November 10, 2026.","tests":"Separates the dominant national-fundamentals flip scenarios from any path where Republicans hold the majority.","signal":"House control outcome","metric":"Number of U.S. House seats won by each party, per Associated Press election results","threshold":"at least 218 Democratic-held seats","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-10","source":"https://apnews.com/hub/2026-midterm-elections","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.62,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The RealClearPolling generic congressional ballot average shows a Democratic lead of at least 5 percentage points in its final update before November 3, 2026.","tests":"Distinguishes a narrow Democratic majority scenario from a wider wave scenario.","signal":"Generic ballot trend","metric":"National generic congressional ballot polling average","threshold":"Democratic lead of 5 points or more","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-01","source":"https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/generic-congressional-vote","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A Reuters/Ipsos poll released before October 31, 2026 shows Trump's approval rating at or below 33 percent.","tests":"Tests whether the approval-crash driven scenarios continue or whether a rebound scenario takes hold.","signal":"Trump approval trajectory","metric":"Reuters/Ipsos presidential approval poll","threshold":"33 percent or lower","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-10-31","source":"https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/ipsos-reuters-core-political-polling","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Official Texas Secretary of State results show Republicans winning at least 30 of Texas's 38 U.S. House seats in the November 3, 2026 election.","tests":"Separates scenarios where Texas's new map delivers as designed from scenarios where Latino-vote defection erodes it.","signal":"Texas redistricting payoff","metric":"Republican share of Texas's U.S. House delegation","threshold":"at least 30 of 38 seats","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-10","source":"https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/index.shtml","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Certified 2026 election results show Democrats holding at least 230 U.S. House seats by December 15, 2026.","tests":"Separates the narrow-majority scenarios from the deeper-wave and landslide scenarios in the replay mix.","signal":"Size of the Democratic majority","metric":"Total Democratic-held U.S. House seats after the election","threshold":"at least 230 seats","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.house.gov/representatives","probability":0.14285714285714285,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"b70cc41b","question":"Nearly 13,000 US medspas now rival McDonald's in number, as beauty, health and GLP-1 spending merge into one category. Over the next six months, does US consumer spending on personal care services keep growing faster than total consumer spending, as the BEA's monthly personal consumption data will show, or does the wellness boom flatten?","recorded":"2026-09-26","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"basis points (relative spread: personal","calm":15,"rough":-10,"worlds":[{"value":8,"low":3,"high":11},{"value":7,"low":-4,"high":17},{"value":8,"low":-4,"high":17},{"value":9,"low":2,"high":18},{"value":-3,"low":-10,"high":4},{"value":3,"low":0,"high":7},{"value":8,"low":-2,"high":15},{"value":3,"low":-4,"high":11},{"value":6,"low":3,"high":10},{"value":6,"low":-3,"high":14},{"value":5,"low":1,"high":9},{"value":3,"low":-8,"high":13}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"BEA's October 2026 Personal Consumption Expenditures report, released around November 25 2026, shows personal care services spending growth above total PCE growth for October 2026.","tests":"Separates continued outperformance branches from early signs of fading or reversal.","signal":"October spending data test","metric":"Month-over-month percent change in BEA Personal Consumption Expenditures, personal care services versus total PCE (nominal, seasonally adjusted)","threshold":"personal care services month-over-month growth exceeds total PCE month-over-month growth","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-30","source":"https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main","probability":0.8571428571428571,"probability_control":0.62,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"BEA's November 2026 PCE report, released around December 23 2026, shows personal care services spending growth above total PCE growth for November 2026.","tests":"Separates a second consecutive positive reading strengthens the outperformance branch over the fading or scandal branches.","signal":"November spending data confirms or breaks the pattern","metric":"Month-over-month percent change in BEA Personal Consumption Expenditures, personal care services versus total PCE (nominal, seasonally adjusted)","threshold":"personal care services month-over-month growth exceeds total PCE month-over-month growth","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-23","source":"https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main","probability":0.8571428571428571,"probability_control":0.6,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The FDA issues a public safety communication or enforcement alert specifically about medspa injectable practices between now and December 31 2026.","tests":"Distinguishes the scandal-driven flattening branch from the smoother capacity-constrained or competition-driven branches.","signal":"Regulatory crackdown watch on injectable safety","metric":"Issuance of an FDA public safety communication or coordinated multi-state enforcement action on cosmetic injectable practices","threshold":"binary occurrence of a formal FDA communication or enforcement action","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.fda.gov/safety/medwatch-fda-safety-information-and-adverse-event-reporting-program","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"BEA's February 2027 PCE report, released around March 27 2027, shows personal care services growth averaged over the prior six months still above total PCE growth.","tests":"Separates the main test of whether the six-month window ends in the majority outperformance outcome or in a fading, reversed, or scandal-dented outcome.","signal":"Full six-month window read","metric":"Six-month average month-over-month percent change in BEA Personal Consumption Expenditures, personal care services versus total PCE (nominal, seasonally adjusted)","threshold":"six-month average personal care services growth exceeds six-month average total PCE growth","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-03-27","source":"https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main","probability":0.8571428571428571,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"ffe60c5e","question":"Words like '6-7,' 'aura farming,' 'looksmaxxing' and calling something 'so AI' have taken over classrooms this school year. What is actually speeding up Gen Alpha's slang cycle, and why should adults who don't get the joke pay attention?","recorded":"2026-09-26","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Google Trends US interest score (0-100 scale) for the search term '6 7 meme' below 20 on Google Trends' 0-100 scale on or before 2026-12-20.","tests":"Distinguishes the fast-burnout branches (cycle stays fast, public burns out) from a slower fade scenario.","signal":"6-7 meme search interest fades","metric":"Google Trends US interest score (0-100 scale) for the search term '6 7 meme'","threshold":"below 20 on Google Trends' 0-100 scale","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=6%207%20meme","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Google Trends US interest score (0-100 scale) for 'aura farming' below 20 on Google Trends' 0-100 scale on or before 2026-12-20.","tests":"Same fast-turnover check as the 6-7 indicator, confirms whether burnout is a general pattern rather than one term's fluke.","signal":"Aura farming search interest fades","metric":"Google Trends US interest score (0-100 scale) for 'aura farming'","threshold":"below 20 on Google Trends' 0-100 scale","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=aura%20farming","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.8,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Whether a major meme-tracking outlet names a new term, not 6-7, aura farming, looksmaxxing, or so AI, as the current defining Gen Alpha slang a genuinely new term reaches featured or trending status on or before 2026-12-31.","tests":"Distinguishes the cycle stays fast branch, about a third of the read, from scenarios where public turnover slows.","signal":"A brand-new slang term replaces today's set in youth culture coverage","metric":"Whether a major meme-tracking outlet names a new term, not 6-7, aura farming, looksmaxxing, or so AI, as the current defining Gen Alpha slang","threshold":"a genuinely new term reaches featured or trending status","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://knowyourmeme.com/","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Share of teens in a Pew Research Center survey naming private group chats or apps like Discord as their primary way of talking with friends over half (more than 50 percent) on or before 2027-06-30.","tests":"Distinguishes the public burns out, private multiplies branch and the visibility gained, deeper layers lost branch, together about half the read, from branches where slang stays mostly public.","signal":"Teens report private chats as their main place for slang, not public feeds","metric":"Share of teens in a Pew Research Center survey naming private group chats or apps like Discord as their primary way of talking with friends","threshold":"over half (more than 50 percent)","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/internet-technology/","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"61eba01c","question":"Will the EU's largest-ever sanctions package cut Russian oil and gas export revenue or will carve-outs for Hungary, Bulgaria, and Greek shipping firms keep the money flowing?","recorded":"2026-09-25","method":"multiverse-1","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":5,"rough":-35,"worlds":[{"value":-17,"low":-22,"high":-11},{"value":-9,"low":-14,"high":-4},{"value":-9,"low":-16,"high":-2},{"value":-11,"low":-4,"high":-19},{"value":-13,"low":-19,"high":-7},{"value":-8,"low":-12,"high":-4},{"value":-8,"low":-11,"high":-4},{"value":-8,"low":-13,"high":-3},{"value":-8,"low":-16,"high":-1},{"value":-9,"low":-18,"high":-2},{"value":-12,"low":-19,"high":-5},{"value":-9,"low":-16,"high":1}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"EU Council formal decision on Bulgaria's Kulevi refinery sanctions grace period formal extension confirmed rather than allowed to lapse on or before 2026-12-24.","tests":"Distinguishes the standing carve-out and modest dip branches from the meaningful enforcement 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vessel listing","metric":"Number of newly designated Dynagas-linked LNG vessels on the EU sanctions list","threshold":"at least one new vessel listed","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.sanctionsmap.eu/","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"CREA monthly estimate of Russian fossil fuel export revenue, year on year change decline greater than 10 percent year on year on or before 2026-12-24.","tests":"Distinguishes the meaningful enforcement branch from the modest dip and standing carve-out branches.","signal":"Russian fossil fuel export revenue tracker","metric":"CREA monthly estimate of Russian fossil fuel export revenue, year on year change","threshold":"decline greater than 10 percent year on year","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Signed long-term gas supply agreement between Hungary and Azerbaijan signed agreement confirmed on or before 2027-01-31.","tests":"Distinguishes the side-deal cooperative path from unresolved veto standoffs.","signal":"Hungary Azerbaijan gas supply deal","metric":"Signed long-term gas supply agreement between Hungary and Azerbaijan","threshold":"signed agreement confirmed","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-31","source":"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/","probability":0.14285714285714285,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"EU Council adoption of a sanctions package that formally ends the Kulevi and Dynagas exemptions formal closure of both carve-outs confirmed on or before 2027-03-25.","tests":"Distinguishes the meaningful enforcement branch from carve-outs surviving or hardening into permanent policy.","signal":"22nd EU sanctions package closing carve-outs","metric":"EU Council adoption of a sanctions package that formally ends the Kulevi and Dynagas exemptions","threshold":"formal closure of both carve-outs confirmed","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-03-25","source":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/","probability":0.14285714285714285,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]}],"newer":{"rule":"Every run completed on the production API under method 2 (multiverse-2) or method 3 (multiverse-3, which prices each signpost from the no-worlds control), judged on the signposts it had within a day of the run. 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the Supreme Court let barrier construction resume in Big Bend's contested stretch before the end of 2026, and must contractors and their surety insurers commit crews and capital before that ruling lands?","recorded":"2026-10-29","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Supreme Court's public docket shows an order, grant, deny, or conditional, on DOJ's stay application in the Big Bend case by December 24th, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where the Court rules before year end from the world where it punts Big Bend to 2027.","signal":"Supreme Court acts on the Big Bend stay application","metric":"Whether the Supreme Court's public docket shows an order on DOJ's emergency stay application in the Big Bend barrier injunction case","threshold":"an order entered on the docket, any outcome, by December 24th, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docket.aspx","probability":0.75,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"USAspending.gov shows a new obligation or notice to proceed on at least one of the five Big Bend barrier contracts by December 24th, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds with any real crew remobilization from worlds where contractors stand down entirely.","signal":"CBP issues notice to proceed on a Big Bend contract","metric":"Federal contract obligation or notice to proceed status for the five Big Bend barrier contracts on USAspending.gov","threshold":"at least one contract shows new obligation activity by December 24th, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.usaspending.gov/","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Western District of Texas court docket shows Judge Cardone's injunction stayed or vacated by December 24th, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where legal relief actually lifts the injunction from worlds where it stays in force into 2027.","signal":"Judge Cardone's injunction status in the district court docket","metric":"Western District of Texas docket entry showing whether Cardone's injunction remains in force","threshold":"injunction marked stayed or vacated by December 24th, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.txwd.uscourts.gov/","probability":0.45,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, or the Big Bend Sentinel reports that contractors have laid off or reassigned crews from the Big Bend barrier contracts to other border projects before December 1, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where crews are pulled off Big Bend and sent elsewhere before any court signal from worlds where crews remain staged, waiting, or partially remobilized pending the ruling.","signal":"Crews leave Big Bend before any ruling","metric":"Public reporting of contractors laying off or reassigning Big Bend barrier crews to other border segments","threshold":"first confirmed report of crew layoff or reassignment","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-01","source":"https://www.reuters.com","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"eae4143f","question":"Will a new Israeli government win a Knesset confidence vote by January 15th, 2027, and if so, is it led by Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud bloc or by Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc?","recorded":"2026-10-28","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Knesset's official session record shows a new Israeli government won a confidence vote on or before January 15th, 2027.","tests":"Separates any government forming from the mandate expiring with no vote held.","signal":"Whether the Knesset holds and passes a confidence vote on a new government before the deadline","metric":"Knesset official record of a passed confidence vote for a new government","threshold":"a passed confidence vote recorded on or before January 15th, 2027","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-20","source":"https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/News/Pages/default.aspx","probability":0.4,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Central Elections Committee's final seat certification shows Ra'am and Joint List combined hold below 15 seats, published by December 15th, 2026.","tests":"Separates the vetoes and seat cuts deadlock world from the opposition forming government worlds.","signal":"Whether the Central Elections Committee certifies Arab-led parties below 15 combined seats","metric":"Certified Knesset seat count for Ra'am and Joint List combined","threshold":"below 15 combined seats","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/","probability":0.12,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Beit HaNassi's official statement names Gadi Eisenkot, not Benjamin Netanyahu, as holding the mandate to form a government by November 30th, 2026.","tests":"Separates opposition-led paths from Netanyahu-led or hybrid unity paths.","signal":"Who the President's official statement names as receiving the mandate to try to form a government","metric":"Named mandate holder in the President's Residence (Beit HaNassi) official statement","threshold":"Eisenkot named as mandate holder rather than Netanyahu","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-30","source":"https://www.gov.il/en/departments/the_president_of_israel","probability":0.45,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Reuters or AP reports Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu formally endorsing either Netanyahu's or Eisenkot's bloc by December 20th, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where Liberman's posture resolves early from worlds where his ambiguity drags into deadlock.","signal":"Whether Liberman publicly commits his party to one bloc before the deadline","metric":"Reported public statement from Avigdor Liberman endorsing a bloc","threshold":"a formal public endorsement reported, naming the bloc","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/","probability":0.35,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Reuters reports a significant new Israeli strike or escalation tied to Iran or the West Bank between December 1st, 2026 and January 15th, 2027.","tests":"Separates the war-pressure world, Netanyahu unity government with fractured mandate, from the quieter reference and stabilization paths.","signal":"Whether a major Iran-linked or West Bank security incident is reported during the final stretch of talks","metric":"Reuters Middle East coverage of a significant Israeli military strike or escalation","threshold":"a reported significant strike or escalation in that window","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-16","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/","probability":0.65,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"context","warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A public prediction market shows Netanyahu's implied probability above Eisenkot's for Prime Minister on January 10th, 2027.","tests":"Separates netanyahu-led or hybrid unity worlds from Eisenkot-led opposition worlds.","signal":"What a public prediction market shows as the favorite to be the next Israeli Prime Minister","metric":"Implied probability for Netanyahu versus Eisenkot on a public prediction market","threshold":"Netanyahu's implied probability exceeds Eisenkot's","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-prime-minister","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"9918fcd3","question":"Will drugmakers and insurers lock in 2027 US launch prices and formulary terms before CMS's mandatory GLOBE international reference pricing model reshapes Medicare Part B reimbursement, and will Congress's PBM audit probe add a second compliance front first?","recorded":"2026-10-28","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2027-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":41.7,"rough":-48.8,"worlds":[{"value":3,"low":1,"high":5.5},{"value":3,"low":-5,"high":9},{"value":8.5,"low":2,"high":16},{"value":-4,"low":-11,"high":2},{"value":-6,"low":-20,"high":9},{"value":7,"low":2,"high":12},{"value":9,"low":3,"high":15},{"value":3,"low":-5,"high":11},{"value":4,"low":-2,"high":9},{"value":-2,"low":-10,"high":7},{"value":13,"low":6,"high":19},{"value":11,"low":4,"high":18}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"CMS's published mandatory GLOBE model participant list names five or fewer manufacturers as of January 15th, 2027.","tests":"Separates narrow-GLOBE-reach worlds from dual-compliance-front worlds where the mandatory pool stays larger.","signal":"How many manufacturers stay under mandatory GLOBE pricing","metric":"Count of manufacturers CMS lists as mandatory GLOBE participants","threshold":"five or fewer manufacturers","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-15","source":"https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/innovation-models","probability":0.72,"probability_control":0.72,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"CMS's published GENEROUS model enrollment list names fifteen or more manufacturers as of January 15th, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds with a broad GENEROUS exodus from worlds with a meaningful holdout cohort still inside mandatory GLOBE.","signal":"How large the GENEROUS exemption pool grows","metric":"Count of manufacturers CMS lists as enrolled in the GENEROUS model","threshold":"fifteen or more manufacturers","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-15","source":"https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/innovation-models","probability":0.42,"probability_control":0.42,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"CMS, in a public statement, press release, or GAO report, confirms that an operational or staffing backlog delayed confirming manufacturers' GENEROUS exemption status before the 2027 launch-price contracting deadline, on or before March 31, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where CMS's waiver office fails to confirm GENEROUS status in time, forcing manufacturers to sign on informal assurances and face retroactive exposure, versus worlds where confirmations proceed on schedule.","signal":"CMS waiver office backlog delays confirmations","metric":"Whether CMS publicly acknowledges a staffing or operational backlog delaying confirmation of manufacturers' GENEROUS exemption status before the 2027 contracting deadline","threshold":"public confirmation of a confirmation backlog","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-03-31","source":"https://www.cms.gov/newsroom","probability":0.12,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A Congressional PBM audit or compliance bill has passed at least one chamber, per Congress.gov's bill tracker, by June 30th, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where the PBM probe becomes a real second compliance front from worlds where it stays stalled or deferred.","signal":"Whether Congress's PBM audit bill actually advances","metric":"Legislative status of a PBM audit or compliance bill in Congress","threshold":"passed at least one chamber","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.congress.gov/","probability":0.33,"probability_control":0.33,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"CMS's Q2 2027 Average Sales Price pricing file shows median launch price growth for new 2027 Part B drugs at or above 8 percent year over year, released by April 30th, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where restraint is mostly talk from worlds where real price deceleration shows up in the data.","signal":"Whether reported launch prices keep climbing near their recent pace","metric":"Median year-over-year change in list and net launch prices for new 2027 Medicare Part B drugs","threshold":"8 percent or higher year over year","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-04-30","source":"https://www.cms.gov/medicare/payment/part-b-drugs/asp-pricing-files","probability":0.52,"probability_control":0.52,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The House Oversight Committee announces, via a committee statement, letter, or press release posted on oversight.house.gov, that its PBM audit probe has expanded to examine gross-to-net rebate restructuring or off-book discount practices like copay cards, on or before September 30, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where manufacturers and PBMs restructure rebate routing or use off-book discounts that draw expanded Congressional scrutiny, versus worlds where the audit probe stays confined to PBM contracting terms.","signal":"Oversight probe expands to rebate routing","metric":"Whether the House Oversight Committee's PBM audit probe publicly expands to scrutinize gross-to-net rebate restructuring or off-book discount mechanisms such as copay cards","threshold":"public expansion of probe scope to rebate-routing or copay-card practices","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-09-30","source":"https://oversight.house.gov","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"fca4a83a","question":"Will the trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks set for November 2026 produce a ceasefire framework before year end, or will European governments and reconstruction contractors have to keep planning around active war risk into 2027?","recorded":"2026-10-28","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Black Sea shipping corridor is confirmed reopened for regular commercial grain and cargo traffic by December 15, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where Black Sea trade reopens (partially or fully) alongside a narrow truce or frozen-front framework, versus worlds where the corridor stays shut amid collapsed talks or persistent distrust.","signal":"Black Sea corridor reopens for trade","metric":"Status of the Black Sea shipping corridor for Ukrainian grain and cargo exports (open vs. closed for regular commercial traffic)","threshold":"corridor status changes from closed/suspended to open for regular commercial traffic","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative","probability":0.1,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The World Bank, European Commission, or a G20-backed reconstruction fund confirms disbursement of a first reconstruction financing tranche to Ukraine's government by December 18, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where reconstruction money actually starts flowing under a signed framework or a functioning G20 fund, versus worlds where financing stays frozen, pilot-only, or diverted to contingency planning.","signal":"First reconstruction funding tranche disbursed","metric":"Whether a major reconstruction financing body has actually disbursed its first tranche of funds to Ukraine's government","threshold":"status changes from no disbursement/committed-only funding to an actual first tranche paid out","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-18","source":"https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en","probability":0.07,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"European governments or an EU-led 'coalition of the willing' publicly announce a formal non-NATO security guarantee plan for Ukraine by December 20, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where Europe builds its own guarantee plan to offset a frozen-front deal or a widening split with Washington, versus worlds where no such formal guarantee framework appears.","signal":"Europe announces own security guarantee plan","metric":"Whether European governments or an EU-led coalition formally announce a non-NATO security guarantee framework for Ukraine","threshold":"status changes from no formal guarantee framework to a publicly announced one","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"ISW's map shows Russian forces in full control of Pokrovsk as of December 1st, 2026.","tests":"Talks Collapse world versus Narrow Technical Deals or Framework Signed worlds.","signal":"Battlefield movement in Donetsk","metric":"ISW's daily control-of-terrain map for Pokrovsk and the Donetsk front","threshold":"full Russian control reported","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-01","source":"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessments","probability":0.58,"probability_control":0.58,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"c0588cae","question":"Will the IMF executive board approve Argentina's $900 million tranche before year end 2026, or will mounting mortgage defaults and missed fiscal targets push bondholders to reprice default risk first?","recorded":"2026-10-28","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The IMF's Argentina country page lists a completed Executive Board review for the $900 million tranche on or before December 24th, 2026.","tests":"Separates the eight approval-before-year-end worlds from the four worlds where the vote slips into 2027.","signal":"IMF Board holds or completes an Argentina review before the deadline","metric":"Whether the IMF's Argentina country page shows a completed Executive Board review for the Extended Fund Facility","threshold":"a recorded Board decision by December 24th, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG","probability":0.85,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Argentina's sovereign bond spread, as shown on World Government Bonds' Argentina page, is at or above 600 basis points on December 20th, 2026.","tests":"Separates bruising-fight, bank-failure, and reserve-bottleneck worlds from the clean or coordinated approval worlds.","signal":"Argentine sovereign bond spread stays contained or blows out","metric":"Argentina's sovereign bond spread over US Treasuries as tracked on a public bond data page","threshold":"above 600 basis points","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/argentina/","probability":0.35,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Argentina's 5 year CDS spread, per World Government Bonds' CDS data, implies a default probability above 50 percent on December 15th, 2026.","tests":"Separates the most extreme tail worlds (bank failure, hidden reserve gap) from all calmer or merely delayed worlds.","signal":"Argentina's credit default swap pricing signals extreme distress","metric":"Argentina's 5 year credit default swap spread converted to an implied default probability","threshold":"above 50 percent implied default probability","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/cds-historical-data/argentina/5-years/","probability":0.12,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"BCRA's weekly reserves report shows gross international reserves below $42 billion on or before December 10th, 2026.","tests":"Separates reserve bottleneck, hidden reserve gap, and drought and oil shock worlds from worlds near the $50 billion baseline.","signal":"BCRA reserves fall short of the levels the calmer worlds assume","metric":"BCRA's published gross international reserves level","threshold":"below $42 billion","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://www.bcra.gob.ar/PublicacionesEstadisticas/Principales_variables.asp","probability":0.35,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Argentina's Congress passes its 2027 budget law, as published in the official gazette, before any IMF Executive Board decision is announced, by December 24th, 2026.","tests":"Separates coordinated or stabilizer tested approval from diluted-budget or coalition-crack delay.","signal":"Argentina's budget vote lands before or after the IMF decision","metric":"Date Argentina's Congress passes its 2027 budget law relative to the IMF Board decision date","threshold":"budget law published before the Board decision","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.boletinoficial.gob.ar/","probability":0.2,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"BCRA's bank loan portfolio report shows mortgage non performance above 8 percent in its November or December 2026 release, by December 15th, 2026.","tests":"Separates mortgage-stress heavy worlds like bank failure shock or creditor fight from the baseline's slower-building stress.","signal":"Mortgage default data out of Buenos Aires worsens sharply","metric":"BCRA's reported non-performance ratio on UVA mortgage loans","threshold":"above 8 percent","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.bcra.gob.ar/PublicacionesEstadisticas/Default.asp","probability":0.88,"probability_control":0.88,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"acb3965f","question":"Will Volkswagen reinstate its canceled wage deal by the end of November 2026, or will Europe's largest automaker face coordinated strikes starting January 2027 just as labor law reforms in the UK, Canada and California embolden similar actions?","recorded":"2026-10-27","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2027-02-28","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":12.2,"rough":-8.2,"worlds":[{"value":-1.6,"low":-3.2,"high":-0.4},{"value":-2.3,"low":-5.5,"high":0.4},{"value":1.3,"low":0.2,"high":2.6},{"value":4.2,"low":3,"high":5.4},{"value":0.6,"low":-2,"high":2.3},{"value":4.1,"low":2.2,"high":5.9},{"value":1.1,"low":0.2,"high":2.4},{"value":0.4,"low":-1.8,"high":2.3},{"value":2.1,"low":0.8,"high":3.5},{"value":1.6,"low":0.4,"high":2.8},{"value":-2.1,"low":-3.3,"high":-0.9},{"value":1.5,"low":0.4,"high":3.1}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Volkswagen and IG Metall jointly announce a reinstated or renegotiated wage agreement on or before November 30th, 2026.","tests":"Separates mediated or cooperative worlds versus coordinated or contained strike worlds.","signal":"Wage talks reinstated before the deadline","metric":"Joint VW/IG Metall announcement of a reinstated or renegotiated wage deal","threshold":"a joint announcement of a reinstated or renegotiated wage deal","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-30","source":"https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en","probability":0.22,"probability_control":0.22,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"IG Metall confirms strike action began at Volkswagen's German plants on January 1st, 2027.","tests":"Separates coordinated or contained strike worlds versus mediated or patchwork worlds.","signal":"Strike actually begins on schedule","metric":"IG Metall's own confirmation of strike action at VW's German plants","threshold":"confirmed strike action effective January 1st, 2027","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-08","source":"https://www.igmetall.de","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Volkswagen's December 2026 delivery report shows German plant output down 15 percent or more year over year.","tests":"Separates supply chain collapse or cross border strike worlds versus mediated or lightly disrupted worlds.","signal":"Production actually drops in Germany","metric":"Volkswagen's December 2026 group delivery report, German plant output year over year","threshold":"German output down 15 percent or more year over year","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-20","source":"https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/investor-relations","probability":0.28,"probability_control":0.28,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Reuters or a major Mexican outlet confirms SITIAVW has carried out at least one coordinated strike, walkout, or slowdown at VW's Puebla plant on or before February 21, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where cross-border labor solidarity turns into real action across Germany and Mexico versus worlds where it stays symbolic, stalls, or never materializes.","signal":"Mexican union solidarity action at VW","metric":"Whether Mexico's SITIAVW union takes coordinated labor action (strike, sympathy walkout, or production slowdown) at VW's Puebla plant in solidarity with German workers","threshold":"1 (at least one confirmed coordinated action)","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-02-21","source":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Germany's Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs publicly confirms it mediated VW and IG Metall talks on or before December 31st, 2026.","tests":"Separates mediated deal world versus credibility collapse or baseline strike worlds.","signal":"Government mediation actually materializes","metric":"Public confirmation of mediation by Germany's Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs","threshold":"confirmed government mediation by December 31st, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.bmas.de/DE/Service/Presse/presse.html","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"a3101d25","question":"Will the Trump-Xi truce extension hold past its new deadline, or will Beijing reinstate extraterritorial rare earth export licensing controls that Pentagon suppliers and automakers cannot substitute for in time?","recorded":"2026-10-27","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2027-01-10","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"metric tonnes/month","calm":5840,"rough":-340,"worlds":[{"value":250,"low":185,"high":310},{"value":330,"low":150,"high":650},{"value":120,"low":40,"high":350},{"value":3200,"low":2300,"high":4100},{"value":110,"low":55,"high":280},{"value":2300,"low":1650,"high":2800},{"value":250,"low":60,"high":700},{"value":280,"low":90,"high":650},{"value":340,"low":150,"high":600},{"value":450,"low":250,"high":800},{"value":32,"low":12,"high":60},{"value":70,"low":20,"high":190}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"China's General Administration of Customs reports November 2026 rare earth magnet exports to the United States below 150 metric tonnes, as published by December 20th, 2026.","tests":"Separates near total embargo and shadow collapse worlds from strained-but-functioning or selective squeeze worlds.","signal":"China's monthly customs data on rare earth magnet exports to the US","metric":"General Administration of Customs of China, monthly export volume of neodymium iron boron magnets (HS 8505.11) to the United States","threshold":"below 150 metric tonnes","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statistics/index.shtml","probability":0.4,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"US Census Bureau trade data for October 2026, released by December 10th, 2026, shows Chinese magnet imports down more than 20 percent from September 2026.","tests":"Separates squeeze and collapse worlds from truce holds and stabilization worlds.","signal":"US import records for Chinese rare earth magnets","metric":"US Census Bureau USA Trade Online, imports of NdFeB magnets (HS 8505.11) from China","threshold":"more than 20 percent month over month decline","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://usatrade.census.gov/","probability":0.45,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The US Department of Defense confirms by January 3rd, 2027 that it has issued a formal DFARS rare earth waiver for at least one defense contractor.","tests":"Separates the world where Washington blinks first from the world where US hawks enforce the ban without broad waivers.","signal":"Whether the Pentagon waives its own rare earth sourcing ban","metric":"Department of Defense public confirmation of a DFARS rare earth content waiver","threshold":"formal waiver issued, yes or no","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-03","source":"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/","probability":0.35,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Fastmarkets' NdPr oxide price assessment, published around January 2nd, 2027, reaches a new twelve month high.","tests":"Separates worlds where scarcity bites hardest from worlds where supply eases.","signal":"Rare earth magnet material prices","metric":"Fastmarkets NdPr oxide price assessment","threshold":"new 12 month high","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-02","source":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/metals-and-mining/non-ferrous-industrial-minerals/rare-earths","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A Japanese or EU government body confirms by December 31st, 2026 a bilateral rare earth licensing deal with China distinct from Washington's arrangement.","tests":"Separates the allied split worlds from the worlds where the G7 keeps a common front.","signal":"Whether Japan or the EU strike their own rare earth deal with Beijing","metric":"Public government announcement of a bilateral rare earth licensing arrangement between China and Japan, or China and the EU, separate from the US framework","threshold":"confirmed separate deal, yes or no","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/index.html","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"China's Ministry of Commerce formally reinstates the 0.1 percent de minimis extraterritorial rare earth licensing rule before January 3rd, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where Beijing fully reinstates the extraterritorial package and squeezes US-bound magnet flows, versus worlds where the truce holds or only a partial, non-extraterritorial squeeze occurs.","signal":"Beijing reinstates full extraterritorial rare-earth rule","metric":"Whether China's Ministry of Commerce formally reinstates the 0.1% de minimis extraterritorial licensing rule for foreign-made goods containing Chinese-origin rare earths","threshold":"0.1% extraterritorial rule reinstated (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-03","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/china/","probability":0.07,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"2ef69abc","question":"Will Washington and New Delhi sign a trade deal and fix tariff rates before the US Trade Representative closes its Section 301 overcapacity probe, or will the revocable Graham Act waiver leave buyers of Indian goods exposed into 2027?","recorded":"2026-10-26","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2027-01-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":-18,"rough":139,"worlds":[{"value":26,"low":21,"high":31},{"value":31,"low":15,"high":64},{"value":24,"low":14,"high":52},{"value":12,"low":8,"high":19},{"value":78,"low":45,"high":112},{"value":19,"low":14,"high":46},{"value":19,"low":12,"high":52},{"value":27,"low":16,"high":44},{"value":21,"low":14,"high":34},{"value":23,"low":13,"high":47},{"value":29,"low":20,"high":45},{"value":30,"low":16,"high":48}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"USTR's public docket for the India Section 301 overcapacity investigation shows a final determination notice posted on or before January 24th, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where the probe closes cleanly from worlds where it drags or stays unresolved (constraints, informal shadow).","signal":"USTR posts its final Section 301 India determination","metric":"Presence of a final determination notice in USTR's Section 301 India overcapacity docket","threshold":"determination notice posted versus no notice posted","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-24","source":"https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/enforcement/section-301-investigations","probability":0.12,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Federal Register contains no notice revoking or suspending India's Graham Act waiver as of January 24th, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where the waiver survives revocable but unused from the discontinuity world where it is revoked.","signal":"No Graham Act waiver revocation notice appears","metric":"Presence of a Federal Register notice revoking or suspending India's Graham Act waiver","threshold":"no revocation notice published versus a revocation notice published","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-24","source":"https://www.federalregister.gov","probability":0.82,"probability_control":0.82,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"USITC's Harmonized Tariff Schedule shows a published preferential ad valorem rate for Indian textile imports at or below 15 percent as of January 24th, 2027.","tests":"Separates the cooperative, low-tariff lock-in world from worlds with stacking.","signal":"Applied tariff rate on Indian textiles stays in the lower band","metric":"Published preferential ad valorem tariff rate for Indian textile imports in USITC's Harmonized Tariff Schedule","threshold":"at or below 15 percent","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-24","source":"https://hts.usitc.gov","probability":0.08,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"USTR or India's Press Information Bureau issues a joint statement confirming a signed US India trade agreement text by December 15th, 2026.","tests":"Separates the ten deal-signing worlds from the discontinuity and informal shadow worlds where no clean deal emerges.","signal":"A signed US India trade agreement text is jointly announced","metric":"Joint official announcement confirming a signed US India trade agreement text","threshold":"joint announcement issued versus no announcement","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"India's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data shows Russian oil at below 20 percent of India's crude imports for December 2026.","tests":"Separates the resource biophysical world, where India cuts Russian oil hard, from worlds where high Russian oil purchases keep waiver pressure alive.","signal":"India's Russian oil share keeps falling or stays flat","metric":"India's share of crude oil imports sourced from Russia, as tracked in monthly Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data","threshold":"below 20 percent of crude import volume","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-15","source":"https://ppac.gov.in","probability":0.1,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Congress.gov shows a Senate or House resolution introduced to revoke or suspend India's Graham Act waiver, filed on or before January 17, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where continued oil purchases, token gestures, or patchy enforcement keep Congress pushing to pull the waiver, versus worlds where a locked-in deal eases tension.","signal":"Congress formally moves on waiver revocation","metric":"Whether a Senate or House resolution to revoke or suspend India's Graham Act waiver has been introduced","threshold":"at least one resolution introduced","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-17","source":"https://www.congress.gov/","probability":0.18,"probability_control":0.18,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"4d4e4d9d","question":"Will mortgage insurers and title underwriters reprice their businesses before FHFA finalizes the pilot to cancel mortgage insurance early and make the title-waiver program permanent, expected to move through rulemaking in the weeks after the November 3 midterms?","recorded":"2026-10-26","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"FHFA publishes a proposed or final rule for the PMI early cancellation pilot in the Federal Register before December 20th, 2026.","tests":"","signal":"FHFA publishes rule text for the PMI cancellation pilot","metric":"Publication of a proposed or final FHFA rule for the PMI early cancellation pilot in the Federal Register","threshold":"rule text published in the Federal Register by December 20th, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/federal-housing-finance-agency","probability":0.15,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"MGIC Investment Corp or Radian Group announces lower full-year 2026 guidance or a loss reserve increase in an SEC filing before December 24th, 2026.","tests":"","signal":"A mortgage insurer cuts guidance or raises reserves before the rule is final","metric":"MGIC Investment Corp or Radian Group 2026 earnings guidance or loss reserve disclosures","threshold":"a downward guidance revision or reserve increase disclosed before December 24th, 2026","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/","probability":0.08,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"FHFA, a federal court, or an official FHFA notice publicly delays, pauses, or extends the title waiver rulemaking process (e.g., an extended comment period, an injunction, or a postponement) before December 20, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where the title waiver is frozen by a court case, paused by a fraud case, stalled by internal friction, delayed through extended comment periods, or quietly stalls, versus worlds where it finalizes on the original schedule.","signal":"Title waiver rulemaking delay signal","metric":"Whether FHFA, a court, or the rulemaking record shows a public delay, pause, or extension of the title waiver pilot's timeline","threshold":"any officially announced delay, pause, or extension versus none","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/federal-housing-finance-agency","probability":0.22,"probability_control":0.22,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A congressional committee holds a hearing, introduces legislation, or issues a formal oversight letter referencing FHFA's PMI cancellation or title waiver pilots before December 24, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where Congress adds a sunset review, locks in an oversight-driven title freeze, builds a coalition pausing the appraisal expansion, or adds oversight noise, versus worlds with no congressional involvement.","signal":"Congressional action on FHFA pilots","metric":"Whether a congressional committee holds a hearing, introduces legislation, or issues an oversight letter on the PMI or title waiver pilots","threshold":"any formal congressional hearing, bill introduction, or oversight letter versus none","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.congress.gov","probability":0.4,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"First American Financial or Old Republic International announces a reserve increase or lowered 2026 guidance tied to title waiver exposure before December 24th, 2026.","tests":"","signal":"A title underwriter cuts guidance or raises reserves tied to the waiver","metric":"First American Financial Corp or Old Republic International 2026 earnings guidance or reserve disclosures","threshold":"a downward guidance revision or reserve increase disclosed before December 24th, 2026","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/","probability":0.07,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"9b56c4f9","question":"Will state governments, catastrophe reinsurers and muni bond investors line up replacement disaster funding before FEMA's administrator-confirmed plan to shift federal aid to states within six months of October 20, 2026 takes hold?","recorded":"2026-10-24","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2027-04-20","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":85,"rough":-2.6,"worlds":[{"value":18,"low":10,"high":28},{"value":11,"low":5,"high":19},{"value":27,"low":16,"high":41},{"value":21,"low":12,"high":33},{"value":18,"low":9,"high":28},{"value":22,"low":12,"high":34},{"value":14,"low":8,"high":24},{"value":16,"low":8,"high":27},{"value":15,"low":8,"high":24},{"value":19,"low":11,"high":29},{"value":13,"low":6,"high":22},{"value":19,"low":10,"high":33}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Artemis Deal Directory records a new Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) Alamo Re catastrophe bond or equivalent reinsurance placement priced by January 15th, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where Texas joins Florida/California in locking in real private catastrophe coverage, versus worlds where Texas stays uncovered or only partially assembles coverage.","signal":"Texas secures real catastrophe bond coverage","metric":"Whether Texas Windstorm Insurance Association places a new catastrophe bond or reinsurance treaty","threshold":"a new TWIA-linked cat bond or reinsurance placement is priced","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-15","source":"https://www.artemis.bm/deal-directory/","probability":0.15,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Artemis Deal Directory records a new Florida or California state-sponsored catastrophe bond priced between October 24th, 2026 and January 20th, 2027.","tests":"Separates whether early movers actually place new capital or stall.","signal":"A new state sponsored catastrophe bond actually pricing","metric":"New catastrophe bond issuance tied to a state-sponsored entity recorded in the Artemis Deal Directory","threshold":"at least one new state-sponsored deal priced","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-20","source":"https://www.artemis.bm/deal-directory/","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The California FAIR Plan Association or California Department of Insurance publicly announces a FAIR Plan assessment on member insurers due to wildfire losses exceeding available funds, by January 20th, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where a FAIR Plan insolvency scare triggers market contagion or a disaster outruns the funding fix, versus worlds where the FAIR Plan holds without a forced assessment.","signal":"California FAIR Plan hits insolvency point","metric":"Whether California's FAIR Plan announces an assessment on member insurers due to wildfire claims exceeding its funds","threshold":"a FAIR Plan assessment on insurers is announced","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-20","source":"https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Congress.gov shows a disaster relief supplemental appropriations bill enacted into law by December 31st, 2026.","tests":"Separates whether Congress buys states more time with new money.","signal":"Congress passing a disaster funding stopgap","metric":"Status of a disaster relief supplemental appropriations bill on Congress.gov","threshold":"bill enacted into law","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.congress.gov/","probability":0.2,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Swiss Re Cat Bond Price Return Index shows a month over month decline at its December 2026 update.","tests":"Separates whether the cat bond market splits into priced winners and shut out laggards.","signal":"Catastrophe bond market pricing splitting or holding steady","metric":"Month over month change in the Swiss Re Cat Bond Price Return Index","threshold":"month over month price decline","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-explorer/cat-bond-index.html","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The California State Treasurer's Office announces a new catastrophe bond or wildfire fund bond issuance by April 10th, 2027.","tests":"Separates whether California secures real coverage or stalls like most states.","signal":"California actually closing a new catastrophe bond or wildfire fund deal","metric":"California State Treasurer's Office announcement of a new catastrophe bond or wildfire fund bond issuance","threshold":"issuance announced","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-04-10","source":"https://www.treasurer.ca.gov/news/index.asp","probability":0.4,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"81b0795a","question":"Will the FCC win an en banc rehearing or Supreme Court review of the Fifth Circuit's ruling against its $9 billion Universal Service Fund within the roughly 90-day appeal window, or will rural carriers and E-Rate schools face a funding gap first?","recorded":"2026-10-24","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Supreme Court's public docket shows a stay of the Fifth Circuit's mandate granted in the Universal Service Fund case by December 10th, 2026.","tests":"Separates the stay-granted cluster from the funding-gap cluster.","signal":"Supreme Court grants a stay protecting USF funding","metric":"Supreme Court docket entry on a stay application in the Fifth Circuit USF case","threshold":"stay granted (yes/no) on the docket","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docket.aspx","probability":0.07,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"USAC publishes a public notice announcing it has suspended Universal Service Fund collection or disbursement before December 15th, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where money keeps flowing from worlds where a real gap opens.","signal":"USAC halts fund collection or disbursement","metric":"USAC public notice on Universal Service Fund contribution collection or disbursement status","threshold":"suspension notice posted (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.usac.org/about/newsroom/","probability":0.05,"probability_control":0.05,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Fifth Circuit's docket shows the en banc rehearing petition denied or dismissed by December 1st, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds that burn time on en banc first from worlds that go straight to the Supreme Court.","signal":"Fifth Circuit acts on the en banc rehearing petition","metric":"Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals docket entry resolving the en banc petition in the USF case","threshold":"en banc petition denied or dismissed (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-01","source":"https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/","probability":0.06,"probability_control":0.06,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Congress.gov shows a Universal Service Fund or USAC authorization bill passed by either chamber before December 10th, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where Congress acts under pressure from worlds where its bill stalls.","signal":"Congress moves a USF or USAC authorization fix","metric":"Congressional bill status for a USF or USAC authorization fix","threshold":"chamber passage (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://www.congress.gov/search?q=%22Universal+Service+Fund%22","probability":0.05,"probability_control":0.05,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"NTCA issues a public statement reporting member carriers cancelling USF-funded projects before December 17th, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds with visible real-world harm from worlds where carriers keep operating normally.","signal":"Rural carrier groups report cancelled or frozen USF-funded projects","metric":"NTCA public statements on USF-related funding disruption to member carriers","threshold":"disruption statement issued (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-17","source":"https://www.ntca.org/ruraliconnections/press-releases","probability":0.2,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"CoSN publishes a statement reporting E-Rate disbursement delays or school project cancellations before December 17th, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds with real school disruption from worlds where E-Rate keeps paying out.","signal":"Schools report E-Rate disbursement delays","metric":"CoSN public statements on E-Rate funding delays or project cancellations","threshold":"delay statement issued (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-17","source":"https://www.cosn.org/news/","probability":0.2,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"bf88fa96","question":"With 16 US trucking companies filing for bankruptcy protection between September 18 and October 21, 2026, will retailers and freight brokers secure holiday-season capacity contracts before Thanksgiving, or face a scramble as more carriers fail mid-season?","recorded":"2026-10-23","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-11-25","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The SONAR national dry van Outbound Tender Reject Index is above 15% at any point between October 23rd, 2026 and November 16th, 2026.","tests":"Separates the scramble-cascade and mid-peak-collapse worlds from the baseline and cooperative-lock worlds.","signal":"National tender rejection rate spikes on van freight","metric":"SONAR Outbound Tender Reject Index, national dry van","threshold":"above 15 percent","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-16","source":"https://sonar.freightwaves.com/","probability":0.75,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"DAT's national dry van spot rate on November 16th, 2026 is more than 20% above its October 23rd, 2026 level.","tests":"Separates worlds with a diesel shock or mid-peak carrier failure from worlds where capacity stays merely strained.","signal":"Spot shipping rates jump sharply","metric":"DAT national dry van spot rate, weekly average","threshold":"more than 20 percent above the October 23rd reading","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-16","source":"https://www.dat.com/industry-trends/dat-trendlines","probability":0.08,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Trade press (e.g., FreightWaves, Transport Dive) reports at least one case of a US trucking carrier failing while hauling an active load, stranding freight mid-transit, between October 22, 2026 and November 18, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where credit tightening and import/canal delays compound mid-season carrier collapse with stranded loads, versus worlds where carriers exit cleanly without stranding active freight.","signal":"Carrier fails mid-haul, stranding freight","metric":"count of reported incidents where a US trucking carrier files for bankruptcy protection while actively carrying a load, leaving freight stranded in transit","threshold":"0 to at least 1 incident","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-18","source":"https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tag/bankruptcy","probability":0.7,"probability_control":0.7,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The EIA weekly US average diesel retail price on November 9th, 2026 is more than 5% above its October 23rd, 2026 level.","tests":"Separates the diesel-shock scramble world from worlds where fuel costs stay flat.","signal":"Diesel prices move sharply before Thanksgiving","metric":"EIA US on-highway average diesel retail price, weekly","threshold":"more than 5 percent above the October 23rd reading","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-09","source":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/","probability":0.15,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Trade press reports more than 5 additional US trucking company bankruptcy filings between October 22nd, 2026 and November 16th, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where the bankruptcy wave keeps going into peak season from worlds where it levels off.","signal":"More carriers fail on top of the first sixteen","metric":"Count of new US trucking company bankruptcy filings reported in trade press","threshold":"more than 5 additional filings","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-16","source":"https://www.freightwaves.com/news/category/business/bankruptcy","probability":0.7,"probability_control":0.7,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"138cc7b7","question":"Before OPEC+'s next production review, expected in early December 2026, will major buyers in China and India lock in long-term supply deals tied to Aramco's new overseas storage and alternate-route plan, or keep hedging on the spot market while the Hormuz war continues?","recorded":"2026-10-23","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-12-10","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"China's General Administration of Customs report for October 2026 shows crude imports from Saudi Arabia above the September 2026 level.","tests":"Separates worlds where China leans toward Aramco commitments from worlds where it leans on Russian barrels or shadow trade.","signal":"China's Saudi crude imports relative to last month","metric":"China General Administration of Customs crude oil import volume from Saudi Arabia, month over month","threshold":"above September 2026 import volume","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-20","source":"http://english.customs.gov.cn/statistics","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"PPAC's report for October 2026 shows India's crude imports from Saudi Arabia higher than in September 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where India locks in more Aramco volume from worlds where India also pulls back toward spot.","signal":"India's Saudi crude imports relative to last month","metric":"PPAC (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell) monthly crude oil import report, India imports from Saudi Arabia","threshold":"above September 2026 import volume","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-25","source":"https://www.ppac.gov.in/","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The EIA's Europe Brent spot price for the week ending November 27th, 2026 is above 80 dollars per barrel.","tests":"Separates worlds where the Hormuz risk premium stays embedded in price from the world where it eases.","signal":"Brent crude spot price trend","metric":"EIA Europe Brent spot price, weekly average","threshold":"above 80 dollars per barrel","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-30","source":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm","probability":0.95,"probability_control":0.95,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"UKMTO records more than 3 new Houthi attack incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden between November 1st and November 30th, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where Houthi pressure stays live from the calmer de-risking world.","signal":"Rate of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping","metric":"UKMTO reported incident count, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden","threshold":"more than 3 incidents in November","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-01","source":"https://www.ukmto.org/","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Reuters reports at least one newly signed long term Aramco supply contract with a Chinese or Indian state refiner before December 3rd, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where Aramco's lock in plan gains real traction from worlds where it stalls or collapses.","signal":"Confirmed new Aramco long term supply contracts","metric":"News reports of signed long term Aramco supply contracts with Chinese or Indian state refiners","threshold":"at least one confirmed signed contract","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-02","source":"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/","probability":0.35,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"8c5393f6","question":"Will marine war risk insurers lock in sharply higher Black Sea premiums before winter crude and grain loadings peak around December 2026, or will rates ease if Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and the pace of attacks slow first?","recorded":"2026-10-23","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Gard's published Black Sea war risk additional premium guidance for crude tanker voyages is at or above $2.5 million per voyage on November 30th, 2026.","tests":"Separates locked-high worlds from truce-easing or stabilization worlds.","signal":"Whether P&I club guidance keeps Black Sea war risk premiums near the top","metric":"Gard's published Black Sea/Sea of Azov war risk additional premium guidance for crude tanker voyages","threshold":"at or above $2.5 million per voyage","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-30","source":"https://www.gard.no/web/updates","probability":0.62,"probability_control":0.62,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The JWC's Hull War Listed Areas document, as updated by December 15th, 2026, still lists the Black Sea and Sea of Azov as an enhanced risk area.","tests":"Separates sustained-severe worlds from worlds where strikes genuinely ease enough to shift official risk status.","signal":"Whether the Black Sea stays formally classed as an enhanced war risk zone","metric":"JWC (Joint War Committee) Hull War Listed Areas document status for the Black Sea and Sea of Azov","threshold":"still listed as enhanced risk area (versus removed or downgraded)","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.lmalloyds.com/LMA/Underwriting/Marine/JWC/LMA_JWC.aspx","probability":0.92,"probability_control":0.92,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"North Standard's published Black Sea war risk additional premium quote for grain bulk carriers is below $2.0 million per voyage on December 10th, 2026.","tests":"Separates partial-easing or physical-floor worlds from the fully locked-high worlds.","signal":"Whether a second insurer's circular confirms any real pullback in quoted premiums for grain-carrying ships","metric":"North Standard's published Black Sea war risk additional premium quote for grain bulk carriers","threshold":"below $2.0 million per voyage","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://www.north-standard.com","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Reuters reports a quoted Black Sea war risk marine insurance premium of $2.5 million or more per voyage for crude tankers by November 15th, 2026.","tests":"Separates locked-high and mixed-signal worlds from truce or stabilization worlds.","signal":"Whether trade press coverage keeps reporting premiums near the recent peak","metric":"Reported Black Sea war risk marine insurance premium level for crude tankers in Reuters coverage","threshold":"at or above $2.5 million per voyage","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-15","source":"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/","probability":0.58,"probability_control":0.58,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Open-source tracking (ISW daily campaign assessments) shows average daily Russian strikes falling below 45 per day for the week ending December 5th, 2026.","tests":"Separates easing worlds like the stabilization path from baseline and shock-stacking worlds.","signal":"Whether the daily pace of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure actually drops","metric":"Reported daily rate of Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian targets","threshold":"below 45 strikes per day, averaged over one week","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-05","source":"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessments","probability":0.4,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The White House or the Kremlin issues an official statement confirming a signed ceasefire covering strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure by December 1st, 2026.","tests":"Separates truce eases rates not fully from all locked-high and fractured worlds.","signal":"Whether Washington or Moscow confirms a real, signed truce on energy strikes","metric":"Official US or Russian government statement confirming a ceasefire covering Ukrainian energy infrastructure strikes","threshold":"confirmed signed ceasefire announcement (yes versus no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-01","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/","probability":0.07,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"UKMTO records a new Houthi or Iran-linked attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea or Gulf between October 24th, 2026 and December 15th, 2026.","tests":"Separates Middle East spillover and shock-stacking worlds from baseline or truce worlds without regional contagion.","signal":"Whether a separate Middle East flashpoint drains reinsurance capacity alongside the Black Sea","metric":"Reported Houthi or Iran-linked attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea or Gulf","threshold":"at least one recorded attack (yes versus no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.ukmto.org","probability":0.85,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"ded008dd","question":"Between 3 November and 30 November 2026, will President Trump publicly call the House midterm results rigged or fraudulent, or will his administration, his campaign or the RNC file a lawsuit to overturn or block certification of at least one House race?","recorded":"2026-10-22","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-11-30","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"A Kalshi or Polymarket market tracking whether Trump calls the 2026 midterms rigged trades above 55% implied probability on 2026-11-15.","tests":"Separates explicit rigged-claim worlds from the ambiguous grievance baseline.","signal":"Prediction market pricing on Trump making an explicit rigged-election claim","metric":"Implied probability on a political prediction market for Trump publicly calling the 2026 House results rigged before November 30","threshold":"above 55% implied probability","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-15","source":"https://kalshi.com/markets/politics","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"CourtListener's docket search shows lawsuits filed in three or more House races challenging certification by 2026-11-18.","tests":"Separates coordinated multi-district litigation from narrow one or two district suits.","signal":"Spread of certification lawsuits across multiple House districts","metric":"Count of RNC, Trump campaign, or DOJ lawsuits filed targeting House race certification, per CourtListener docket search","threshold":"3 or more districts","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-18","source":"https://www.courtlistener.com/","probability":0.18,"probability_control":0.18,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The U.S. Department of Justice is named as a plaintiff or intervenor in a lawsuit challenging certification of at least one House race, per a DOJ press release or court docket, by 2026-11-23.","tests":"Separates worlds where the administration's DOJ itself files suits backing a rigged-election claim, versus worlds where only the RNC or campaign sue without DOJ joining litigation.","signal":"DOJ itself sues over a House race","metric":"Whether the U.S. Department of Justice is named as a plaintiff or intervenor (not just the RNC or Trump campaign) in litigation challenging certification of a 2026 House race","threshold":"DOJ named as plaintiff or intervenor in at least one House certification suit","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-23","source":"https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr","probability":0.05,"probability_control":0.05,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A news report or official statement confirms Speaker Johnson has said he will delay seating at least one contested House winner, by 2026-11-20.","tests":"Separates worlds where Johnson holds back credentials from worlds where seating proceeds normally.","signal":"Speaker Johnson signaling a delay on seating winners","metric":"Whether Speaker Johnson's office issues any public statement indicating he will delay certifying or seating a contested House winner","threshold":"explicit delay statement made","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-20","source":"https://www.speaker.gov/press","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"At least five sitting Senate Republicans are reported on record opposing efforts to challenge House certification, by 2026-11-16.","tests":"Separates the GOP civil war world from worlds where Republican ranks hold together.","signal":"Senate Republicans publicly breaking from the challenge effort","metric":"Number of sitting Senate Republicans reported on record opposing efforts to challenge House certification","threshold":"5 or more senators on record","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-16","source":"https://www.rollcall.com","probability":0.18,"probability_control":0.18,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A Reuters/Ipsos or YouGov/Economist poll shows 50% or more of Republicans saying the 2026 House results were stolen, published by 2026-11-22.","tests":"Separates worlds with sustained public doubt from worlds where the dispute stays contained.","signal":"Public belief among Republicans that the House results were stolen","metric":"Share of self-identified Republicans telling a national pollster they believe the 2026 House results were stolen","threshold":"50% or more of Republican respondents","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-22","source":"https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/reuters-ipsos-polling","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"723e735b","question":"Will the German Bundestag pass the reformed Renewable Energy Act, cutting small-scale solar subsidies, in a vote expected the second week of November 2026, before the EU's current state aid approval lapses on December 31, 2026?","recorded":"2026-10-22","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-11-30","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"binary pass/fail + scope fraction","calm":1.29,"rough":-0.23,"worlds":[{"value":0.9,"low":0.75,"high":1},{"value":0.32,"low":0,"high":0.55},{"value":0.3,"low":0.15,"high":0.5},{"value":0.65,"low":0.5,"high":0.85},{"value":0.08,"low":0,"high":0.3},{"value":0.7,"low":0.35,"high":1},{"value":0.4,"low":0.15,"high":0.7},{"value":0.35,"low":0.15,"high":0.6},{"value":0.62,"low":0.42,"high":0.8},{"value":0.32,"low":0.15,"high":0.55},{"value":0.55,"low":0.3,"high":0.78},{"value":0.6,"low":0.35,"high":0.85}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Bundestag's official plenary agenda lists a floor vote on the reformed Renewable Energy Act for the week of November 9 to 13, 2026, as published by November 16, 2026.","tests":"Separates on-schedule worlds like the baseline, grand bargain, or early-buffer pass from delayed or compressed-clock worlds.","signal":"Bundestag plenary agenda lists the EEG reform vote in the second week of November","metric":"Presence of the reformed Renewable Energy Act floor vote on the Bundestag's official plenary schedule","threshold":"scheduled for that week versus not scheduled","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-16","source":"https://www.bundestag.de/tagesordnung","probability":0.62,"probability_control":0.62,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Bundesrat's official plenary agenda lists the reformed Renewable Energy Act for a consent or objection vote in its November 2026 session, as of November 23, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where the full Bundestag to Bundesrat to Brussels chain clears on time from the coalition-collapse bridge-law branch.","signal":"Bundesrat plenary calendar lists the reform for a November vote","metric":"Presence of the EEG reform item on the Bundesrat's official plenary agenda for November 2026","threshold":"listed for the November session versus not listed","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-23","source":"https://www.bundesrat.de/DE/plenum/plenum-kompakt/plenum-kompakt-node.html","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The EU Commission's state aid case register shows a new notification for the amended German renewable energy support scheme filed by November 23, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds on track to beat the December 31 deadline comfortably from compressed-clock or collapse worlds risking a lapse.","signal":"EU Commission's state aid register shows a new filing for Germany's amended renewable scheme","metric":"Filing of a new state aid notification case for the amended German renewable support scheme","threshold":"notification filed by that date versus not filed","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-23","source":"https://competition-cases.ec.europa.eu/search?caseInstrument=SA","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"No major German news outlet reports a coalition government crisis, resignation, or breakup attempt before November 23, 2026.","tests":"Separates the coalition-collapse bridge-law world from the eleven other branches where the government holds together.","signal":"News reports of a coalition crisis before the vote","metric":"Reported stability status of the German governing coalition","threshold":"no crisis reported versus a crisis reported","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-11-23","source":"https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news","probability":0.75,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Clean Energy Wire or a comparable German energy trade outlet reports BSW-Solar and the Economy Ministry reaching a transition-payment deal by November 23, 2026.","tests":"Separates the grand-bargain or negotiated-dilution worlds from the open industry-revolt or backroom-deal-leak worlds.","signal":"Trade press reports a truce between solar and wind groups and the Economy Ministry","metric":"Reported status of industry-ministry negotiations over the small-solar transition terms","threshold":"deal reported versus continued open revolt","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-23","source":"https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news","probability":0.18,"probability_control":0.18,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"c7b1edda","question":"Will Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU-SPD coalition still be in office on 31 December 2026 with its pension, long-term care and 2027 budget reforms passed by the Bundestag, still in office without them passed, or out of office through a chancellor change, a confidence vote under Article 68 or a collapse of the coalition?","recorded":"2026-10-20","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-12-01","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Politbarometer survey published closest to 24 November 2026 shows Merz's approval rating below its reading from around 20 October 2026.","tests":"Separates the diluted-but-stable and chancellor-change worlds from the clean-deal world.","signal":"Merz's approval rating trend","metric":"Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Politbarometer Chancellor approval rating for Friedrich Merz","threshold":"below the 20 October 2026 reading","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-11-24","source":"https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The wahlrecht.de poll of polls combined CDU/CSU and SPD share nearest 21 November 2026 is below its share from around 20 October 2026.","tests":"Separates the softened-reform and chancellor-change worlds from the clean-deal world.","signal":"Coalition polling support","metric":"Combined CDU/CSU plus SPD Sonntagsfrage polling share tracked by wahlrecht.de","threshold":"below the 20 October 2026 combined share","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-11-21","source":"https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/","probability":0.6,"probability_control":0.6,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Bundestag's official agenda page, checked on or before 24 November 2026, still lists the budget and reform vote for 27 November 2026, unchanged from today.","tests":"Separates orderly process worlds from the acute-crisis, discontinuity world.","signal":"Budget vote schedule stability","metric":"Bundestag official agenda listing for the 2027 budget and reform vote","threshold":"rescheduled or cancelled versus kept on 27 November","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-24","source":"https://www.bundestag.de/tagesordnung","probability":0.85,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Germany's 10-year government bond yield on 24 November 2026 is higher than its level on 20 October 2026.","tests":"Separates the market-spillover, chancellor-change world from the calmer worlds.","signal":"German bond market stress","metric":"Germany 10-year government bond yield","threshold":"above the 20 October 2026 level","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-24","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01DEM156N","probability":0.52,"probability_control":0.52,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Politico's Poll of Polls Germany AfD share, published nearest 21 November 2026, is higher than its reading from around 20 October 2026.","tests":"Separates the strained and severe worlds, where AfD gains from the spectacle, from the calm-deal world.","signal":"AfD polling momentum","metric":"AfD national polling share, Poll of Polls Germany","threshold":"above the 20 October 2026 reading","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-21","source":"https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/","probability":0.65,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"48a8c125","question":"What will the EU's aggregate gas storage fill level be on 1 January 2027, as published by GIE's AGSI platform, after the cold snap forecast to grip northwestern Europe from this week and with LNG freight and war-risk insurance costs elevated by Strait of Hormuz tensions?","recorded":"2026-10-20","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2027-01-01","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":12.5,"rough":88.7,"worlds":[{"value":67,"low":61,"high":73},{"value":52,"low":42,"high":61},{"value":61,"low":52,"high":70},{"value":75,"low":67,"high":82},{"value":49,"low":40,"high":58},{"value":64,"low":56,"high":73},{"value":66,"low":58,"high":74},{"value":64,"low":57,"high":70},{"value":60,"low":51,"high":69},{"value":61,"low":53,"high":69},{"value":61,"low":53,"high":70},{"value":58,"low":50,"high":66}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The GIE AGSI EU aggregate storage fill level published for November 15, 2026 is below 75%.","tests":"Separates if true, points toward the drawn-short-by-timing or crisis-depletion worlds; if false, points toward the reference, stabilizers, or coordinated-buying worlds.","signal":"EU aggregate storage reading in mid-November","metric":"GIE AGSI EU aggregate gas storage fill level","threshold":"below 75%","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-11-20","source":"https://agsi.gie.eu/data-overview/EU","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The GIE AGSI EU aggregate storage fill level published for December 1, 2026 is below 68%.","tests":"Separates if true, points toward the drawn-short or triple-shock cluster; if false, points toward the mid-60s normal-draw or coordinated-lift worlds.","signal":"EU aggregate storage reading in early December","metric":"GIE AGSI EU aggregate gas storage fill level","threshold":"below 68%","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-05","source":"https://agsi.gie.eu/data-overview/EU","probability":0.35,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The GIE AGSI Germany storage fill level published for December 15, 2026 is below 60%.","tests":"Separates if true, points toward crisis-depletion or drawn-short clusters where Germany leads the drag; if false, points toward reference or stabilizer worlds.","signal":"Germany's own storage reading in mid-December","metric":"GIE AGSI Germany country-level gas storage fill level","threshold":"below 60%","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-18","source":"https://agsi.gie.eu/data-overview/DE","probability":0.65,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The ICE Dutch TTF front-month settlement price exceeds 120 EUR per MWh on any trading day between November 1 and December 15, 2026.","tests":"Separates if true, points toward the EU-Enters-January-Short-and-Strained or triple-shock worlds; if false, points toward the calmer reference or bearish-narrative worlds.","signal":"TTF price spike","metric":"ICE Dutch TTF front-month natural gas price","threshold":"above 120 EUR/MWh","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-18","source":"https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures","probability":0.4,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"EIA or Lloyd's List Intelligence data show Hormuz tanker transit volume in November 2026 down more than 30% from the October 2026 baseline.","tests":"Separates if true, points toward the triple-shock or binding-constraint worlds; if false, points toward the reference case where Hormuz eases.","signal":"Strait of Hormuz tanker transit drop","metric":"Strait of Hormuz crude and LNG tanker transit volume","threshold":"more than 30% month-on-month drop","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-05","source":"https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","probability":0.2,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Copernicus data show the November to December 2026 temperature anomaly for northwestern Europe colder than minus 1.5 degrees Celsius versus the 1991-2020 average.","tests":"Separates if true, points toward the cold-snap-driven squeeze or triple-shock worlds; if false, points toward the reference case's normal winter draw.","signal":"Cold snap severity over northwestern Europe","metric":"Copernicus Climate Change Service surface air temperature anomaly for northwestern Europe","threshold":"colder than minus 1.5 degrees Celsius anomaly","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-maps","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"d2134100","question":"After EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic's talks this week with China's commerce minister Wang Wentao over the bilateral surplus and Chinese EV and hybrid imports, will the European Commission announce new duties, quotas or price undertakings on Chinese electric or hybrid car imports by December 31, 2026, or will European automakers and freight carriers plan 2027 around another stalemate?","recorded":"2026-10-19","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"binary outcome: announcement (yes) or stalemate/deferral","calm":-10,"rough":111,"worlds":[{"value":76,"low":52,"high":90},{"value":38,"low":22,"high":58},{"value":70,"low":55,"high":85},{"value":72,"low":55,"high":85},{"value":70,"low":52,"high":84},{"value":58,"low":35,"high":78},{"value":0.38,"low":0.15,"high":0.65},{"value":93,"low":82,"high":100},{"value":62,"low":42,"high":82},{"value":83,"low":68,"high":94},{"value":18,"low":7,"high":37},{"value":72,"low":56,"high":88}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Reuters or Bloomberg reports, citing EU officials, that the European Commission's draft proposal on Chinese EV or hybrid imports contains only price undertakings with no tariff-rate quota or volume cap, on or before 2026-12-10.","tests":"Separates worlds where a hard quota gets deferred or softened into a price-undertaking-only 'first phase' from worlds where a tariff-rate quota or volume cap is actually included.","signal":"Draft limited to price undertakings only","metric":"Whether the Commission's draft EV/hybrid trade proposal excludes any quota or volume cap, relying only on price undertakings","threshold":"report confirms a price-undertaking-only draft with no quota","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/","probability":0.12,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Bloomberg or Reuters reports a specific leaked numeric tariff-rate quota figure for Chinese hybrid imports, attributed to an internal Commission document, on or before 2026-11-30.","tests":"Separates worlds where a leak forces Brussels' hand or where industry plans 2027 around an unofficial leaked figure from worlds where any number surfaces only through an official announcement or not at all.","signal":"Leaked quota number predates formal deal","metric":"Whether a specific numeric tariff-rate quota figure for Chinese hybrid imports is reported as leaked from an internal Commission document before any official decision","threshold":"a specific leaked quota number is reported","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-30","source":"https://www.bloomberg.com/europe","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Reuters or Bloomberg reports that the European Commission's proposal for Chinese EV or hybrid import measures includes an exemption or reduced rate for vehicles assembled at EU-based plants by Chinese manufacturers, on or before 2026-12-15.","tests":"Separates worlds where the quota is undercut by a loophole letting Chinese makers dodge the cap through EU-assembled production from worlds with a clean quota or no quota at all.","signal":"EU-assembly exemption carve-out reported","metric":"Whether the Commission's proposed measure includes an exemption or reduced rate for Chinese automakers' vehicles assembled at EU-based plants","threshold":"exemption or carve-out for EU-assembled Chinese models confirmed","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"China's Ministry of Commerce publicly announces new restrictions or a documented slowdown on rare earth export licenses tied to the EV dispute on or before 25 November 2026.","tests":"Separates a rare earth squeeze that delays action from a steadier Chinese posture that rewards a softer EU choice.","signal":"China tightens rare earth export licensing tied to the dispute","metric":"Chinese Ministry of Commerce announcements on rare earth export license policy","threshold":"new restriction or documented slowdown announced on or before 25 November 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-25","source":"http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/","probability":0.08,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Reuters or Bloomberg reports that the EU and China have scheduled a follow-up ministerial meeting on EV tariffs for March 2027, published on or before 18 December 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where December's outcome is final from worlds where the fight visibly rolls into 2027.","signal":"A March 2027 follow-up meeting gets confirmed in reporting","metric":"News reporting of a scheduled EU-China follow-up ministerial meeting on EV tariffs","threshold":"confirmed March 2027 meeting reported on or before 18 December 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-18","source":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Reuters, Politico, or a major European outlet reports previously undisclosed side arrangements, such as a German port investment stake or French wine or brandy access deal, tied to the EU-China EV negotiations, on or before 2026-12-20.","tests":"Separates worlds where a quota deal rests on undisclosed side arrangements or a brandy side letter that later draw backlash from worlds where any deal is reached cleanly or no deal happens at all.","signal":"Hidden side deal on port stake or wine access exposed","metric":"Whether press reports reveal previously undisclosed side arrangements, such as a German port investment stake or French wine or brandy access deal, tied to the EV negotiations","threshold":"exposure of an undisclosed side arrangement is reported","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.politico.eu/section/trade/","probability":0.13,"probability_control":0.13,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"bdcc62c8","question":"With the IMF warning at the Bangkok meetings that growth alone cannot fix the US deficit path, Treasury dismissing the warning, and the 10-year Treasury yield already above 5 percent, will the 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) close above 5.00 percent on October 28, 2026, the day of the Fed's rate decision?","recorded":"2026-10-19","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-10-28","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":3.2,"rough":7.65,"worlds":[{"value":5.17,"low":5.05,"high":5.3},{"value":5.34,"low":5.15,"high":5.62},{"value":5.22,"low":5.03,"high":5.48},{"value":4.92,"low":4.78,"high":5.06},{"value":5.62,"low":5.4,"high":5.95},{"value":4.96,"low":4.85,"high":5.09},{"value":5.18,"low":5.03,"high":5.37},{"value":5.18,"low":4.9,"high":5.55},{"value":5.14,"low":5.02,"high":5.27},{"value":5.13,"low":4.94,"high":5.32},{"value":5.27,"low":5.14,"high":5.45},{"value":5.22,"low":5.08,"high":5.45}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Treasury's October 2026 10-year note auction records a bid-to-cover ratio below that of the September 2026 10-year note auction, as reported by TreasuryDirect, by October 20, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where weak or pulled-back auction demand (foreign buyers stepping back, hedge fund stress feeding into pricing) shows up versus worlds where auctions clear smoothly or demand holds up.","signal":"Weak 10-year Treasury auction demand","metric":"Bid-to-cover ratio at Treasury's 10-year note auction","threshold":"September 2026 10-year note auction's bid-to-cover ratio","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-10-20","source":"https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/auction-query/","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"October 7 10-year note auction recorded a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.77, above September 9's ratio of 2.71, per rttnews.com and thevaultreport.com.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.45,"worlds_right":2,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.30250000000000005,"brier_control":0.30250000000000005},{"event":"The FRED DGS10 series shows a close at or above 5.10 percent for 2026-10-21.","tests":"Separates a mild Orderly Drift from Cross Currents or Sharp Spike.","signal":"10-year Treasury yield trend into Fed week","metric":"FRED series DGS10, daily close","threshold":"at or above 5.10%","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-21","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","probability":0.48,"probability_control":0.48,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"FRED DGS10 closed at 5.13% on Oct 21, 2026, above the 5.10% threshold, per fred.stlouisfed.org/data/DGS10.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.48,"worlds_right":7,"actual_value":5.13,"actual_label":"5.13% on Oct 21","brier":0.27040000000000003,"brier_control":0.27040000000000003},{"event":"The FRED DGS10 close on 2026-10-21 is higher than its close on 2026-10-19.","tests":"Separates worlds with rising pressure, like Cross Currents or Sharp Spike, from easing worlds, like Near-Miss or Coordinated Calm.","signal":"Short-run change in the 10-year yield","metric":"FRED series DGS10, two-day comparison","threshold":"net increase over the two trading days","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-21","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","probability":0.52,"probability_control":0.52,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"FRED DGS10 closed at 5.15% on Oct 19 and 5.13% on Oct 21, 2026; Oct 21 was lower than Oct 19, per fred.stlouisfed.org/data/DGS10.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.48,"worlds_right":1,"actual_value":5.13,"actual_label":"5.13% Oct 21 vs 5.15% Oct 19","brier":0.27040000000000003,"brier_control":0.27040000000000003},{"event":"CME FedWatch shows the implied probability of a 25 basis point cut at the October 28 meeting below 50 percent, as of 2026-10-20.","tests":"Separates hawkish-hold worlds like Orderly Drift or Sharp Spike from a Dovish Fed easing toward Near-Miss.","signal":"Market pricing of the October 28 Fed decision","metric":"CME FedWatch implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut","threshold":"below 50%","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-10-20","source":"https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html","probability":0.45,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"CME FedWatch showed ~0-1% implied probability of a 25bp cut at the Oct 28 meeting as of Oct 20, well below 50%, per octagonai.co.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.45,"worlds_right":8,"actual_value":1,"actual_label":"~1% cut probability Oct 20","brier":0.30250000000000005,"brier_control":0.30250000000000005},{"event":"FRED series BAMLH0A0HYM2 closes above 380 basis points on 2026-10-21.","tests":"Separates contagion or AI-default worlds like Sharp Spike and Cross Currents from calmer Orderly Drift or Near-Miss.","signal":"Stress in corporate credit tied to AI-related debt","metric":"ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED series BAMLH0A0HYM2)","threshold":"above 380 bps","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-21","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 closed at 3.27% (327 bps) on Oct 21, 2026, below the 380 bps threshold, per fred.stlouisfed.org/data/BAMLH0A0HYM2.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.7,"worlds_right":9,"actual_value":327,"actual_label":"327 bps on Oct 21","brier":0.09,"brier_control":0.09},{"event":"FRED series DCOILWTICO closes above 85 dollars per barrel on 2026-10-21.","tests":"Separates the energy-shock flavored Sharp Spike world from calmer Orderly Drift or Near-Miss worlds.","signal":"Oil price moves tied to an energy shock story","metric":"WTI spot crude oil price (FRED series DCOILWTICO)","threshold":"above $85 per barrel","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-21","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"FRED DCOILWTICO closed at $107.89/barrel on Oct 20, 2026 (latest FRED data near Oct 21), well above the $85 threshold, per fred.stlouisfed.org/data/DCOILWTICO.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.55,"worlds_right":2,"actual_value":107.89,"actual_label":"$107.89/barrel Oct 20","brier":0.20249999999999996,"brier_control":0.20249999999999996}]},{"run_id":"c1e766f9","question":"Temporary Protected Status for tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of Sudanese nationals was set to lapse on October 19, 2026, and DHS has said only that a decision will come at the appropriate time. Will DHS publish a Federal Register notice extending TPS for Ukraine and Sudan by November 30, 2026, or will the status lapse and their work authorization end?","recorded":"2026-10-19","method":"multiverse-5","deadline":"2026-11-30","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"yes/no","calm":110,"rough":-9,"worlds":[{"value":68,"low":42,"high":88},{"value":0.08,"low":0,"high":0.2},{"value":14,"low":5,"high":28},{"value":0.82,"low":0.62,"high":0.94},{"value":0.12,"low":0.03,"high":0.32},{"value":0.58,"low":0.32,"high":0.78},{"value":0.12,"low":0.03,"high":0.28},{"value":0.05,"low":0,"high":0.15},{"value":0.3,"low":0.1,"high":0.6},{"value":0.35,"low":0.1,"high":0.55},{"value":22,"low":8,"high":42},{"value":0.15,"low":0.05,"high":0.35}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"A DHS notice on Ukraine Temporary Protected Status appears on the Federal Register's public inspection list on or before November 20, 2026.","tests":"Separates notice-published worlds from silence or termination worlds.","signal":"Federal Register public inspection listing for a DHS Ukraine TPS notice","metric":"Presence of a DHS Temporary Protected Status Ukraine document on the Federal Register public inspection list","threshold":"document present on the public inspection list by November 20, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-20","source":"https://www.federalregister.gov/public-inspection","probability":0.18,"probability_control":0.18,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A Federal Register document covering Sudan Temporary Protected Status is published or listed for public inspection by November 23, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where Sudan rides along on a joint notice (stopgap, coalition deal) from worlds where Sudan is sacrificed or left out (factional trade, ceasefire termination).","signal":"Federal Register search for a Sudan TPS notice","metric":"Number of published or pre-publication Federal Register documents matching Temporary Protected Status Sudan","threshold":"at least one matching document present by November 23, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-23","source":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Bterm%5D=Temporary+Protected+Status+Sudan","probability":0.18,"probability_control":0.18,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"USCIS's Ukraine Temporary Protected Status webpage shows an updated work permit end date of April 2027 or later by November 23, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where DHS formalizes the extension from worlds of pure silence or termination.","signal":"USCIS Temporary Protected Status Ukraine webpage update","metric":"Posted extension or auto-extension end date on USCIS's official Ukraine Temporary Protected Status page","threshold":"listed end date of April 19, 2027 or later, posted by November 23, 2026","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-23","source":"https://www.uscis.gov/humanitarian/temporary-protected-status/temporary-protected-status-designated-country-ukraine","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"By November 23, 2026, DHS issues a Federal Register notice or public statement addressing Ukraine TPS status while no matching Federal Register notice or public statement addresses Sudan TPS.","tests":"Separates worlds where Ukraine's case is resolved on its own (extended or terminated) while Sudan's status is left unannounced, versus worlds where the two countries are handled together or neither gets any announcement.","signal":"Ukraine gets a solo TPS decision, Sudan doesn't","metric":"Whether DHS announces or publishes any formal action on Ukraine TPS (extension or termination) while issuing no corresponding public action on Sudan TPS","threshold":"Ukraine action present and Sudan action absent (asymmetric treatment)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-23","source":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Bterm%5D=Temporary+Protected+Status","probability":0.15,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"News coverage reports at least one ICE enforcement action targeting Ukrainian or Sudanese TPS holders before November 23, 2026.","tests":"Separates the Ceasefire used to end protection or Shadow pressure and silent lapse tactics worlds from calmer worlds like Quiet auto-extension or Coalition deal.","signal":"ICE enforcement actions against Ukrainian or Sudanese TPS holders","metric":"Reported number of ICE enforcement actions or raids targeting Ukrainian or Sudanese Temporary Protected Status holders","threshold":"one or more reported actions by November 23, 2026","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-23","source":"https://www.ice.gov/newsroom","probability":0.15,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"DHS posts a website statement on Ukraine or Sudan TPS with no matching Federal Register filing by November 23, 2026.","tests":"Separates the El Salvador style silence worlds from worlds where a real notice gets filed.","signal":"DHS website statement without a matching Federal Register filing","metric":"Appearance of an informal DHS news release on Ukraine or Sudan TPS status with no accompanying Federal Register filing","threshold":"statement present with no matching Federal Register filing by November 23, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-23","source":"https://www.dhs.gov/news-releases","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"e1215bad","question":"Trump signed the Graham Act's 500 percent tariff on Russian goods and 100 percent duties on Russia's top oil buyers, then waived both on October 16, 2026, two days before they took effect, while Secretary Rubio asked for 60 days to study their impact. Will the White House let the duties on Russian oil buyers such as India and China take effect by December 31, 2026, and if so, when?","recorded":"2026-10-18","method":"multiverse-4","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"By December 15, 2026 (the 60-day mark from the October 16 waiver), major outlets report, citing named U.S. officials, that Secretary Rubio's review has concluded with a recommendation to reimpose the duties on Russia's oil buyers.","tests":"Separates worlds where Rubio's review pushes toward reimposing the tariffs versus worlds where it is used to justify extending or softening the waiver.","signal":"Rubio review leaks as pro-reimposition","metric":"whether U.S. officials confirm to the press that Rubio's Graham Act review concluded with a recommendation to reimpose the duties, rather than extend the waiver","threshold":"a recommendation to reimpose is publicly reported by officials","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/","probability":0.09,"probability_control":0.09,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The White House signs an executive order reimposing the 100 percent Graham Act tariffs on India and/or China by December 24, 2026.","tests":"Tariffs Reimposed Before Year End or Partial Reimposition worlds from Waiver Holds or Ambiguity Preserved worlds.","signal":"Executive order reimposing the oil buyer tariffs","metric":"Whether the White House signs a new executive order reimposing Graham Act tariffs on Russian oil buyers","threshold":"signed on or before December 24, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.federalregister.gov/","probability":0.15,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"USTR or the White House announces a signed US India trade framework agreement by December 20, 2026.","tests":"Separates Deal Struck or Waiver Holds worlds (India locks in a framework that removes tariff pressure) from Tariffs Reimposed worlds (India walks away from stalled talks).","signal":"US India trade framework signing","metric":"Whether the US and India publicly announce a signed bilateral trade framework addressing Russian oil purchases","threshold":"announced on or before December 20, 2026","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://ustr.gov/","probability":0.2,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"direct","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The EIA's weekly US On-Highway Diesel Fuel Price for the week nearest December 14, 2026 is higher than the reading for the week nearest November 16, 2026.","tests":"Diesel Shortfall or Shock Stack reimposition worlds (rising prices add pressure) from Waiver Holds or Stabilization worlds (stable prices support delay).","signal":"US diesel price movement","metric":"EIA weekly US On-Highway Diesel Fuel Price","threshold":"higher than the mid-November reading (month over month rise)","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-18","source":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm","probability":0.65,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Associated Press's final call shows Democrats winning a majority of US House seats in the November 2026 midterms.","tests":"Separates the Shock Stack reimposition world (election losses stack with other shocks) from Midterm Pivot or Waiver Holds worlds (a split verdict generates too little pressure).","signal":"Midterm election outcome for House control","metric":"Party control of the US House of Representatives after the November 2026 midterm elections, per AP race calls","threshold":"Democrats win House majority","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-10","source":"https://apnews.com/hub/election-2026","probability":0.55,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"ISW or Ukraine's Ministry of Energy report at least one large scale Russian strike on Ukraine's heating or power grid between October 18 and December 20, 2026.","tests":"Separates Shock Stack or Tariffs Reimposed worlds (strikes break the waiver's political cover) from Waiver Holds or Ambiguity worlds (no major escalation removes that trigger).","signal":"Major Russian strike on Ukraine's power grid","metric":"Reports of large scale Russian missile or drone strikes on Ukraine's heating or power infrastructure","threshold":"at least one confirmed large scale strike reported","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessments","probability":0.92,"probability_control":0.92,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"f86fdfd4","question":"With Hurricane Isaias insured loss estimates ranging from roughly $1 billion to $6 billion across Verisk, Cotality and Euler ILS Partners, how will reinsurers and ILS funds set terms for January 1, 2027 renewals before a final industry loss figure is confirmed?","recorded":"2026-10-18","method":"multiverse-4","deadline":"2027-04-30","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"By December 15, 2026, Moody's RMS (or another major catastrophe modeler) publishes an updated Hurricane Isaias industry loss estimate of $3.5 billion or more.","tests":"Separates worlds where higher-end loss estimates get confirmed and push reinsurers toward hardening versus worlds where estimates settle near the lower $2.5-3 billion consensus and renewals stay calm.","signal":"Moody's RMS confirms high-end Isaias loss","metric":"Moody's RMS (or equivalent major modeler) published industry loss estimate for Hurricane Isaias","threshold":"$3.5 billion","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.rms.com/newsroom","probability":0.35,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A major broker's December 2026 renewal outlook report indicates Florida property catastrophe rate guidance of 10 percent or more increase for the January 1, 2027 renewal.","tests":"Separates signal driven hardening from orderly, consensus based renewal.","signal":"Broker renewal outlook pricing guidance","metric":"Property catastrophe rate change guidance for Florida in December 2026 broker renewal outlook reports","threshold":"10% or higher increase guidance","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.artemis.bm/","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index for the January 1, 2027 renewal shows a year on year increase of 10 percent or more.","tests":"Separates a real hardened renewal from a mid-range or soft one.","signal":"Actual January 1 rate on line outcome","metric":"Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index, year on year change at the January 1, 2027 renewal","threshold":"10% or higher year on year increase","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-14","source":"https://www.gccapitalideas.com/","probability":0.15,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation's public board materials disclose a projected policyholder assessment need tied to 2026 storm losses before February 28, 2027.","tests":"Separates visible Citizens strain from an orderly, low drama renewal.","signal":"Florida Citizens stress disclosure","metric":"Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation public board materials on projected policyholder assessment need","threshold":"assessment need disclosed","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-02-28","source":"https://www.citizensfla.com/board-of-governors","probability":0.15,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Artemis.bm reports at least one aggregate catastrophe bond tranche with Isaias-exposed layers confirmed triggered by March 31, 2027.","tests":"Separates a real ILS clawback event from a market that priced fear without confirmed cause.","signal":"Aggregate cat bond trigger confirmation","metric":"Confirmed aggregate catastrophe bond trigger or principal reduction tied to Isaias-exposed Florida wind layers","threshold":"at least one confirmed trigger","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-03-31","source":"https://www.artemis.bm/","probability":0.18,"probability_control":0.18,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation confirms it has opened a formal inquiry into January 1, 2027 reinsurance pricing coordination tied to Hurricane Isaias before April 20, 2027.","tests":"Separates a two-tier market with collusion scrutiny from a clean consensus renewal.","signal":"Regulatory inquiry into renewal pricing coordination","metric":"Formal inquiry by a state insurance regulator into reinsurance pricing coordination tied to Hurricane Isaias","threshold":"inquiry confirmed open","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-04-20","source":"https://www.floir.com/","probability":0.04,"probability_control":0.04,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":"context","warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"b82773b4","question":"Now that Paramount's takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery has closed and Skydance's David Ellison is fielding questions about Trump ties, what changes first for CNN, HBO and the shows people actually watch?","recorded":"2026-10-17","method":"multiverse-3","deadline":"2027-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Paramount Skydance's editorial independence board has published a public report or finding on CNN by January 15, 2027.","tests":"Separates the independence-preserved and stabilizing branches from the soft-pressure-no-proof branch.","signal":"Independence board publishes a public report","metric":"Public report or finding issued by the CNN editorial independence board","threshold":"a public report or finding is issued versus none issued","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-15","source":"https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"By January 15, 2027, Deadline, Variety, or CNN's own statements report at least one round of CNN layoffs, buyouts, or bureau closures tied to the merger's cost pressure.","tests":"Separates worlds where cost pressure visibly lands on CNN itself from worlds where CNN is explicitly shielded or kept intact while cuts fall elsewhere or are avoided entirely.","signal":"CNN absorbs visible staff cuts","metric":"Public reporting of CNN layoffs, buyouts, or bureau closures","threshold":"at least one publicly reported round of CNN cuts","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-15","source":"https://deadline.com/tag/cnn/","probability":0.85,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"By December 15, 2027, trade press (Deadline or Variety) or regulatory filings report that Paramount's film studio has fallen behind the theatrical release quota required by the merger settlement.","tests":"Separates worlds where talent departures or cost-cutting cause Paramount's studio to fall behind its regulatory film quota from worlds where Paramount hits, or is contractually protected on, that quota while cuts land elsewhere.","signal":"Paramount misses its film output quota","metric":"Paramount film studio's compliance with the merger-mandated theatrical release quota","threshold":"below the merger-mandated quota level","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-12-15","source":"https://variety.com/t/paramount/","probability":0.25,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Deadline or Variety reports at least one previously renewed HBO Max original drama series cancelled before October 1, 2027.","tests":"Separates the talent-drain and squeeze branches affecting HBO content from the quiet-integration or independence-preserved branches.","signal":"HBO Max cancels a previously renewed prestige drama","metric":"Count of HBO Max original scripted dramas cancelled after a prior renewal, as reported by entertainment trade press","threshold":"one or more cancellations of previously renewed series","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-10-01","source":"https://deadline.com/tag/hbo-max/","probability":0.75,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"759e9112","question":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win more than 50 percent of valid votes in Brazil's presidential runoff against Lula da Silva on October 25, 2026?","recorded":"2026-10-17","method":"multiverse-3","deadline":"2026-10-25","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":40.9,"rough":58.5,"worlds":[{"value":50.4,"low":48.2,"high":52.6},{"value":51.4,"low":49,"high":53.6},{"value":50.8,"low":47.5,"high":53.5},{"value":47.8,"low":44,"high":51.5},{"value":51.2,"low":47.5,"high":55},{"value":52.1,"low":48.5,"high":55},{"value":51.4,"low":47.5,"high":55},{"value":51.6,"low":47.5,"high":55},{"value":49.4,"low":46,"high":52},{"value":48.7,"low":45.5,"high":52},{"value":48.3,"low":44.5,"high":52.5},{"value":50.3,"low":47,"high":53.5}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The last Datafolha or Quaest poll published on or before 2026-10-18 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at or above 50% of valid vote intentions.","tests":"Separates the Flávio Crosses Fifty Cleanly and Majority Eroded families from the Institutional Calm Brings Lula Near Victory branch.","signal":"Final pre-election poll crosses the majority line","metric":"Datafolha or Quaest poll of valid vote intention for Flávio Bolsonaro","threshold":"at or above 50% of valid votes","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-18","source":"https://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br/","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"Datafolha poll (Oct 16–17, 2026) showed Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% of valid votes vs Lula at 49%, at or above the 50% threshold (https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-final-polls-before-the-vote-lula-flavio-datafolha-quaest-2026/).","settled_on":"2026-10-19","closeness":0.3,"worlds_right":9,"actual_value":51,"actual_label":"Datafolha Oct 16–17: Bolsonaro 51% valid votes","brier":0.48999999999999994,"brier_control":0.48999999999999994},{"event":"A major outlet (Folha, O Globo, or Reuters) reports that TSE or STF issued an order restricting campaign messaging, transport-funding, or voiding electoral irregularities tied to the Flávio-Lula runoff, on or before 2026-10-18.","tests":"Separates worlds where electoral authorities actively intervene beyond routine certification—restricting mass messaging, flagging transport funding, or voiding precincts over shadow-network concerns—from worlds where the count and campaign logistics proceed without any such extra intervention.","signal":"TSE/STF emergency intervention","metric":"Whether a major outlet reports a TSE or STF order restricting campaign messaging, transport funding, or voiding electoral irregularities beyond routine certification","threshold":"at least one such reported TSE/STF intervention","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-18","source":"https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/noticias","probability":0.4,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"TSE issued multiple campaign-restriction orders before Oct 18: suspended Lula's militia ad, barred Flávio's child-abuse ad, ordered WhatsApp channel rules (Oct 16), and ordered Meta equal treatment; reported by AP, Reuters, O Globo, and Folha (https://ground.news/article/brazils-top-court-is-censoring-both-campaigns-before-the-october-25-runoff-heres-what-you-need-to-know_507337).","settled_on":"2026-10-19","closeness":0.4,"worlds_right":2,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.36,"brier_control":0.36},{"event":"A major Brazilian outlet reports a flood, fire, or deadly gang-related attack disrupting campaign momentum in either candidate's regional stronghold, on or before 2026-10-18.","tests":"Separates worlds hit by a disruptive shock in the final stretch—southern floods and Amazon fires, or a deadly gang ambush—from worlds where the campaign's final days run without any such disruptive event.","signal":"Pre-election exogenous shock","metric":"Whether a major outlet reports a natural disaster or deadly security incident disrupting campaign momentum in either candidate's stronghold","threshold":"at least one such reported shock event","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-18","source":"https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"Amazon wildfires tripled in Amazonas from Oct 4 (1,679 fires, +253%), cancelling school classes and disrupting campaign momentum in a key regional area, reported as \"fueling political attacks\" by AP on ~Oct 15 (https://www.clickorlando.com/news/world/2026/10/15/brazil-investigates-amazon-wildfires-that-disrupt-daily-life-and-have-fueled-political-attacks/).","settled_on":"2026-10-19","closeness":0.3,"worlds_right":2,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.48999999999999994,"brier_control":0.48999999999999994},{"event":"A major outlet reports significant coverage of Flávio Bolsonaro's position on amnesty for January 8th defendants, either as an explicit pledge or as a viral dodge moment, on or before 2026-10-18.","tests":"Separates worlds where Flávio's amnesty position becomes a late flashpoint—whether he is forced into a hardline pledge or caught dodging on camera—from worlds where his amnesty stance never becomes a major storyline.","signal":"Amnesty stance flashpoint","metric":"Whether major media report significant coverage of Flávio's amnesty position, as an explicit pledge or a viral dodge","threshold":"at least one such widely reported amnesty-stance moment","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-18","source":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/","probability":0.75,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"Flávio Bolsonaro's amnesty position extensively covered before Oct 18 by Poder360, CNN Brazil, Metropoles, and SBT News, including his explicit pledge to prioritize amnesty for Jan 8 defendants (https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-eleicoes/flavio-bolsonaro-quer-priorizar-agora-projeto-de-anistia-para-o-8-de-janeiro/).","settled_on":"2026-10-19","closeness":0.75,"worlds_right":2,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.0625,"brier_control":0.0625},{"event":"Reuters, AP, or a major Brazilian outlet reports both Flávio Bolsonaro's and Lula's campaigns signing a joint pledge to accept the October 25 result, on or before 2026-10-18.","tests":"Separates the Institutional Calm Brings Lula Near Victory scenario from the sharper conflict scenarios.","signal":"Campaigns sign a joint accept-results pact","metric":"Report of a joint pledge by both campaigns and the election court to accept the October 25 result","threshold":"joint pledge signed and reported","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-18","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/","probability":0.07,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"No report found of both campaigns signing a joint pledge to accept the Oct 25 result before Oct 18; no major outlet (Reuters, AP, Folha, O Globo) reported a bilateral acceptance agreement (https://www.riotimesonline.com/state-department-brazil-election-result-pledge-moraes-2026/).","settled_on":"2026-10-19","closeness":0.93,"worlds_right":11,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.004900000000000001,"brier_control":0.004900000000000001}]},{"run_id":"ffdb40b3","question":"With Polymarket giving Flavio Bolsonaro a 77% chance over Lula before Brazil's October 25 runoff, can prediction markets really call an election voters haven't finished deciding?","recorded":"2026-10-17","method":"multiverse-3","deadline":"2026-10-25","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":40.2,"rough":61,"worlds":[{"value":51.6,"low":49.8,"high":53.5},{"value":47.5,"low":44,"high":51},{"value":50.6,"low":47.5,"high":53.5},{"value":51.2,"low":48.5,"high":54},{"value":48,"low":44,"high":52.5},{"value":50.5,"low":48,"high":53},{"value":51,"low":47,"high":55.5},{"value":51.8,"low":50.3,"high":54.5},{"value":50.8,"low":47.5,"high":53.5},{"value":50.3,"low":47,"high":53.5},{"value":52.3,"low":47.5,"high":57},{"value":51.5,"low":47.5,"high":55.5}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Polymarket's implied probability for Flavio Bolsonaro winning the runoff is below 70 percent at close of trading on 2026-10-18.","tests":"Separates the late-shock or hedging branches from the narrow-overconfidence branch.","signal":"Polymarket odds move off their current level","metric":"Polymarket implied probability for Flavio Bolsonaro winning the runoff","threshold":"below 70 percent","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-10-18","source":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election","probability":0.3,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"Polymarket showed Flávio Bolsonaro's win probability at 77% as of Oct 18, 2026 (Kalshi also showed 78%); not below 70% (https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election).","settled_on":"2026-10-19","closeness":0.7,"worlds_right":7,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.09,"brier_control":0.09},{"event":"The average polling gap between Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva, as compiled by Poder360's poll tracker, is 3 points or less on 2026-10-18.","tests":"Separates the ordinary narrow-win path from a wider, more settled Flavio margin.","signal":"Brazilian polling gap narrows further","metric":"Average gap between Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva across major Brazilian runoff polls","threshold":"3 points or less","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-10-18","source":"https://poder360.com.br/poder-data/","probability":0.6,"probability_control":0.6,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"PoderData (Poder360) poll released Oct 16, 2026 showed Bolsonaro and Lula tied at 50% each; gap was 0 points, at or below 3 points (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-13/brazil-election-lula-narrows-gap-to-bolsonaro-in-poderdata-poll).","settled_on":"2026-10-19","closeness":0.6,"worlds_right":10,"actual_value":0,"actual_label":"PoderData Oct 16: tied 50-50, gap 0 pts","brier":0.16000000000000003,"brier_control":0.16000000000000003},{"event":"Brazil's TSE issues a ruling restoring full WhatsApp campaign-messaging access before October 18, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where restored WhatsApp access lets Lula's campaign claw back Northeast turnout and narrow Flávio's lead, versus worlds where no such ruling features in the campaign's final stretch.","signal":"TSE ruling restores WhatsApp access","metric":"Whether Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) issues a ruling restoring full WhatsApp campaign-messaging access for the runoff","threshold":"ruling issued (occurs = 1, not occurs = 0)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-18","source":"https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/noticias","probability":0.07,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"TSE set restrictive registration rules for WhatsApp campaign channels (requiring formal registration and criteria compliance) rather than restoring full access; this imposed new requirements, not a restoration (https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-court-campaign-channel-rules-runoff-2026).","settled_on":"2026-10-19","closeness":0.93,"worlds_right":10,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.004900000000000001,"brier_control":0.004900000000000001},{"event":"Reuters or Bloomberg Brazil coverage reports a bipartisan amnesty/fiscal guardrail negotiation, or a public rift within Flávio's coalition over amnesty policy, before October 18, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where centrist lawmakers broker a capped amnesty/fiscal deal or Flávio's own coalition visibly cracks over amnesty before the vote, versus worlds where the amnesty question stays quiet and unresolved until after the runoff.","signal":"Amnesty talks or coalition rift surface","metric":"Whether Reuters or Bloomberg Brazil coverage reports either a bipartisan amnesty/fiscal guardrail negotiation or a public rift within Flávio's coalition over amnesty policy","threshold":"such a report exists (occurs = 1, not occurs = 0)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-18","source":"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/","probability":0.4,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"control","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"Reuters Oct 15 covered Bolsonaro gaining endorsements; no bipartisan amnesty/fiscal guardrail negotiation or public rift within Bolsonaro's coalition over amnesty found before Oct 18 (https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2026-10-15/brazils-bolsonaro-racks-up-endorsements-shaping-potential-governing-bloc).","settled_on":"2026-10-19","closeness":0.6,"worlds_right":10,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.16000000000000003,"brier_control":0.16000000000000003}]},{"run_id":"8babcf7a","question":"With a gas station clerk and a nightclub bouncer killed in one weekend and three quarters of voters distrustful of the city's plan, how much room does Mayor Katie Wilson have left to act on crime?","recorded":"2026-10-16","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Seattle City Council has passed an ordinance mandating police camera activation or minimum staffing levels over Mayor Wilson's objection by December 15, 2026.","tests":"Separates Council Overrides Wilson On Core Tools from Wilson Retains Discretion.","signal":"Council mandate on cameras or staffing over Wilson's objection","metric":"Seattle City Council legislative record on public safety ordinances","threshold":"a passed ordinance recorded before the date","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://seattle.legistar.com/Calendar.aspx","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"King County Elections confirms the Wilson recall petition has met the signature threshold for ballot qualification by December 20, 2026.","tests":"Separates extreme crisis paths from partial concession or stabilization paths.","signal":"Recall petition certification","metric":"King County Elections signature verification status for the Wilson recall petition","threshold":"certified signature count meets the legal minimum","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/elections","probability":0.14285714285714285,"probability_control":0.05,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"SPD announces an arrest in either the gas station clerk or the nightclub bouncer homicide case by December 10, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where SPD can point to a visible arrest from worlds where neither killing is resolved by this point (council-driven override worlds, the unity reset, the boxed-in-by-real-world-limits wo.","signal":"Arrest in either homicide case","metric":"whether SPD reports an arrest in the gas station clerk or nightclub bouncer homicide","threshold":"at least 1 arrest reported","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://www.seattle.gov/police/information-and-data/crime-data","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"SPD's crime dashboard records at least one additional homicide in Seattle between October 16 and December 24, 2026.","tests":"Separates the third body crisis path from all calmer paths.","signal":"Additional homicide before year end","metric":"Seattle Police Department crime dashboard homicide count","threshold":"one or more additional recorded homicide in the window","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-24","source":"https://www.seattle.gov/police/information-and-data/crime-dashboard","probability":0.14285714285714285,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Seattle Metro Chamber of Commerce issues a public statement softening its criticism of Mayor Wilson's crime plan by December 15, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where business pressure eases, even conditionally (the boxed-in-still-mayor trade-off, the unity reset with Chamber buy-in) from worlds where business confidence stays shaky or distrustful.","signal":"Chamber softens stance on Wilson","metric":"whether the Seattle Metro Chamber of Commerce issues a public statement easing its criticism of or expressing conditional support for Wilson's public safety plan","threshold":"at least 1 public statement softening criticism","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.seattlechamber.com/news","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"a6f20690","question":"As Houston, Kansas City and Edmond pour millions into roads and sewers while Arvada and other suburbs freeze new data centers, can local infrastructure keep up with the AI boom's hidden costs?","recorded":"2026-10-16","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"In the Census Bureau's Construction Spending report covering November 2026 data, released around January 2027, seasonally adjusted Power category spending is at least two times Highway and Street category spending.","tests":"Separates infrastructure loses direct competition versus voluntary alignment narrowing the gap.","signal":"Data center construction spending keeps outpacing public works spending","metric":"U.S. Census Bureau Value of Construction Put in Place, Power category versus Highway and Street category (seasonally adjusted annual rate)","threshold":"Power spending at least 2.0 times Highway and Street spending","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-13","source":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html","probability":0.3076923076923077,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.3076923076923077,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":11,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"EIA's Electric Power Monthly report shows Texas residential retail electricity price for September 2026, published around December 2026, at least 6 percent higher than September 2025.","tests":"Separates severe bill escalation versus milder cost pass through.","signal":"Household electricity bills rising in a hub region as simulations suggested","metric":"EIA Electric Power Monthly, Texas residential average retail price of electricity, year over year change","threshold":"at least 6 percent year over year increase","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/","probability":0.38461538461538464,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.38461538461538464,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":11,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"BLS Producer Price Index data for ready mix concrete, for November 2026 released around mid December 2026, shows at least a 4 percent year over year increase.","tests":"Separates physical scarcity driven rationing versus manageable material supply.","signal":"Construction material costs staying elevated from data center demand","metric":"BLS Producer Price Index, ready mix concrete commodity series, year over year change","threshold":"at least 4 percent year over year increase","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.bls.gov/ppi/","probability":0.8461538461538461,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.8461538461538461,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":11,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Local government records or news reports confirm at least one additional U.S. city, beyond Arvada, has an active data center construction moratorium or building freeze in place as of 2027-06-30.","tests":"Separates worlds where Arvada's pause becomes a copied template or compounds with other cities being shut out of hyperscaler capital (the template-copying and coalition-exclusion worlds) versus worlds where Arvada stays an isolated outlier while other places lean on permitting speed, disclosure rules, or proj.","signal":"Moratorium spreads to a second suburb","metric":"Count of U.S. cities, beyond Arvada, with an active data center construction moratorium or building freeze","threshold":"at least 1 additional city","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.nlc.org/resource/data-center-moratorium-tracker/","probability":0.23076923076923078,"probability_control":0.92,"probability_worlds":0.23076923076923078,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":11,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"ERCOT's public grid condition reports show at least one Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 or higher explicitly attributed to data center or large load growth, issued before 2027-01-31.","tests":"Separates worlds with acute, load-driven grid strain versus worlds where growth stays more orderly or is cushioned by coalition deals, corridor incentives, or disclosure reforms (the coalition-speedup, cor.","signal":"ERCOT emergency alert tied to data center load","metric":"ERCOT public Energy Emergency Alert (EEA Level 2 or higher) citing data center or large load growth","threshold":"EEA Level 2 or higher, at least once","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-31","source":"https://www.ercot.com/news/releases","probability":0.23076923076923078,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.23076923076923078,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":11,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Texas Water Development Board drought monitor lists a major data center county at mandatory water restriction stage before 2027-09-30.","tests":"Separates physical scarcity collapse versus manageable water supply.","signal":"Drought forcing visible water restrictions in a major data center county","metric":"Texas Water Development Board drought status, mandatory restriction stage for a county with major data center development","threshold":"mandatory restriction stage reached","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-09-30","source":"https://www.twdb.texas.gov/waterplanning/drought/index.asp","probability":0.23076923076923078,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.23076923076923078,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":11,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"05cf0160","question":"With WWF's Living Planet Report showing a 73% drop in monitored wildlife since 1970, but tigers up more than 70% and green turtles recovering, can more species rebound before the UN's Yerevan biodiversity summit this month?","recorded":"2026-10-15","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2030-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Yerevan COP17 final declaration, as published on the CBD website, commits to maintaining or increasing dedicated, financed anti-poaching and marine-enforcement funding for tiger, turtle, and tuna programs through 2030, rather than leaving such funding unspecified or voluntary, by October 31, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where tiger/turtle gains stay protected because enforcement money keeps flowing (binding pledges with real finance reallocation, or anti-corruption reforms that fund rangers) from worlds where those same flagship programs lose dedicated funding and start cracking under renewed poach.","signal":"Flagship species enforcement funding holds","metric":"whether the Yerevan declaration locks in dedicated, financed anti-poaching and marine-enforcement funding for tiger, turtle, and tuna programs (rather than leaving it voluntary)","threshold":"explicit financed commitment (not voluntary) for flagship-species enforcement","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-31","source":"https://www.cbd.int/conferences","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Yerevan COP17 final text, posted on the CBD website, keeps the halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030 target as a binding commitment rather than a voluntary review item.","tests":"Separates the lobbying-blocked and compound-shock branches from the cooperative and stabilizer branches.","signal":"Does the 2030 target stay binding or get softened","metric":"Status of the halt and reverse by 2030 target in the final text","threshold":"binding commitment versus voluntary review","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-31","source":"https://www.cbd.int","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Global Biodiversity Framework Fund's disbursement tracker, hosted by the Global Environment Facility, shows cumulative disbursements at or above 10 billion dollars by January 10, 2027.","tests":"Separates fast-moving finance branches from Pledges Made Money Still Leaks and collapse branches.","signal":"Does pledged conservation money actually move","metric":"Cumulative disbursement total from the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund (GBFF)","threshold":"at or above 10 billion dollars cumulative","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://www.thegef.org/what-we-do/topics/biodiversity/global-biodiversity-framework-fund","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.04,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"WWF and ZSL's next Living Planet Report, published at livingplanetindex.org, reports a global decline figure better than 70% since 1970.","tests":"Separates Real Progress Still Short and Managed Decline branches from Flagship Wins Systemic Gap Widens and collapse branches.","signal":"Does the headline 73 percent figure actually improve","metric":"Global Living Planet Index decline figure in WWF and ZSL's next Living Planet Report","threshold":"decline figure improves to better than 70% (less severe than 73%)","direction":"down","resolves":"2028-10-15","source":"https://www.livingplanetindex.org","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Global Tiger Forum's next range-wide census, or the IUCN Red List update, reports a wild tiger population above 6,000 individuals.","tests":"Tests whether the flagship tiger win keeps compounding (Flagship Wins Habitat Lock-in) or stalls under finance and habitat pressure.","signal":"Does the tiger recovery keep compounding or stall","metric":"Range-wide wild tiger population count","threshold":"above 6,000 wild tigers globally","direction":"up","resolves":"2029-12-01","source":"https://www.globaltigerforum.org","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The CBD Secretariat's national plan tracker shows 70% or more of Parties have submitted updated biodiversity plans with financed enforcement provisions by June 30, 2030.","tests":"Separates systemic-fix branches from Habitat Lock-in and Shadow Capture branches where enforcement money never reaches the ground.","signal":"Does enforcement funding reach the national level","metric":"Share of CBD Parties with updated national biodiversity plans including financed enforcement provisions","threshold":"70% or more of Parties","direction":"up","resolves":"2030-06-30","source":"https://www.cbd.int/nbsap","probability":0.14285714285714285,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"dd5c6dc3","question":"Now that Paramount's takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery has closed and Skydance's David Ellison is fielding questions about Trump ties, what changes first for CNN, HBO and the shows people actually watch?","recorded":"2026-10-15","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Between October 15, 2026 and January 13, 2027, Paramount Skydance announces a price increase of 10% or more for any HBO Max or Paramount+ subscription tier, as reported by Variety, Deadline, or a company press release.","tests":"Separates worlds where debt pressure forces a steep price hike that squeezes or drives away subscribers, versus worlds where pricing stays flat or rises only modestly.","signal":"Streaming price hike size","metric":"announced percentage increase in HBO Max or Paramount+ subscription price","threshold":"10% or more","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-13","source":"https://variety.com","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Between October 15, 2026 and January 13, 2027, at least one CNN vice president level or above editorial staffer departs, as reported by Status or Variety.","tests":"Separates soft trust erosion versus independence holding cleanly under strain.","signal":"Senior CNN staff departure","metric":"Count of VP level or above CNN editorial departures reported in trade press","threshold":"one or more departures","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-13","source":"https://www.status.news/","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.7,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Between October 15, 2026 and January 13, 2027, Moody's or S&P issues a downgrade or negative outlook revision for Paramount Skydance's corporate debt.","tests":"Separates financial pressure forcing asset sales versus manageable debt in the calm path.","signal":"Credit rating action on Paramount Skydance","metric":"Moody's or S&P corporate credit rating or outlook for Paramount Skydance","threshold":"downgrade or negative outlook change","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-13","source":"https://www.moodys.com/","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Between October 15, 2026 and January 13, 2027, the FCC publicly confirms it has opened an inquiry or review into Paramount Skydance's compliance with the CNN editorial-independence provisions of the merger consent decree, as reported by the FCC or outlets such as Reuters or Variety.","tests":"Separates worlds where a pressure episode or advertiser flight prompts regulators to actively review or monitor CNN's independence, versus worlds where no regulatory inquiry is triggered.","signal":"FCC opens CNN firewall inquiry","metric":"whether the FCC publicly confirms an inquiry or review into CNN editorial-independence compliance under the merger consent decree","threshold":"an inquiry or review is opened (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-13","source":"https://www.fcc.gov","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.05,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Between October 15, 2026 and January 13, 2027, at least one major advertiser is publicly reported by Ad Age, Adweek, or a similar outlet to have paused or pulled advertising spend from CNN following a Trump-related coverage controversy.","tests":"Separates worlds where a coverage or pressure incident visibly spooks advertisers into pulling back from CNN, versus worlds where advertiser spending holds steady or even increases.","signal":"Advertiser pullback from CNN","metric":"public reporting of a major advertiser pausing or pulling spend from CNN after a Trump-related coverage controversy","threshold":"at least one advertiser confirmed to pause or pull spend","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-13","source":"https://adage.com","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"23fff4b6","question":"With Syracuse axing 93 majors and Loyola Chicago reviewing 71 more as the college age population shrinks, how many more schools will cut majors before the 'enrollment cliff' bottoms out?","recorded":"2026-10-15","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2031-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Moody's Ratings' annual outlook report for US higher education, published by 31 December 2026, states a negative outlook for the sector.","tests":"Separates Orderly Consolidation (outlook improves toward stable) from Cascading Crisis (negative outlook persists or worsens).","signal":"Ratings agencies keep the sector on a negative outlook","metric":"Moody's Ratings annual outlook report for US higher education","threshold":"outlook rated negative, not stable or positive","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://ratings.moodys.com/sector-in-depth/us-higher-education","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Higher Ed Dive's closures tracker lists 15 or more nonprofit four-year college closures for calendar year 2026 by 5 January 2027.","tests":"Separates Cascading Crisis Triggers Closures (high count) from Orderly Consolidation Within Strained Capacity (low count).","signal":"More colleges show up on public closure trackers before year end","metric":"Higher Ed Dive college closures tracker, cumulative nonprofit four-year closures announced in calendar year 2026","threshold":"15 or more closures logged","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-05","source":"https://www.highereddive.com/topic/mergers-acquisitions/","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center's fall 2026 report, due by 15 January 2027, shows first-time freshmen at four-year private nonprofit colleges down year over year.","tests":"Tests whether the demographic cliff is already biting broadly, feeding the faster-cut branches, or still concentrated at a few schools.","signal":"First look at fall 2026 freshmen numbers","metric":"National Student Clearinghouse Research Center fall 2026 enrollment estimates, year over year change in first-time freshmen at four-year private nonprofit colleges","threshold":"any year over year decline","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-13","source":"https://www.studentclearinghouse.org/nscresearchcenter/","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A cumulative national tracker records more than 2200 eliminated degree programs since 2026, published by 2029-12-31.","tests":"Separates worlds where the national cut count blows past 2200 years ahead of the cliff's end (the closure-shock stampede; the building-driven closures; the faster, promise-breaking cliff; the cascade into closures) from worlds where the cumulative total stays below that mark through the late 2020s (.","signal":"National tally jumps past 2200 early","metric":"cumulative number of eliminated degree programs nationwide since 2026, as recorded by a national higher-ed tracker","threshold":"2200","direction":"up","resolves":"2029-12-31","source":"https://www.highereddive.com/","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"NCES Digest of Education Statistics reports fewer than 3,900 degree-granting postsecondary institutions nationally for academic year 2029-30, published by 30 June 2030.","tests":"Separates Physical Infrastructure Drives Elimination and Cascading Crisis from Orderly Consolidation, where institution counts hold roughly steady.","signal":"The total number of degree-granting colleges keeps shrinking","metric":"NCES Digest of Education Statistics, total degree-granting postsecondary institutions","threshold":"below 3,900 institutions","direction":"down","resolves":"2030-06-30","source":"https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A cumulative national tracker records more than 2,000 eliminated degree programs since 2026, published by 1 December 2031.","tests":"Separates the severe branches (Cascading Crisis, Narrative Shift) from Orderly Consolidation Within Strained Capacity.","signal":"A cumulative national tally of cut programs crosses the severe threshold","metric":"Higher Ed Dive or SHEEO cumulative tracker of eliminated degree programs since 2026","threshold":"more than 2,000 cumulative eliminated programs","direction":"up","resolves":"2031-12-01","source":"https://www.highereddive.com/","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"f628b249","question":"With the newly introduced Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act requiring data centers to pay their own transmission costs and reworking environmental review rules, will local governments actually get faster projects or just new bills?","recorded":"2026-10-14","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2028-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The U.S. House of Representatives holds a recorded floor vote on the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act by January 7, 2027.","tests":"Separates the bill collapse branch (Bills Arrive, Speed Does Not) from branches where BAAJA survives in some form.","signal":"House floor vote on BAAJA","metric":"Whether the U.S. House of Representatives holds a recorded floor vote on BAAJA","threshold":"a recorded floor vote occurs (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-07","source":"https://www.congress.gov/search?q=Bipartisan+American+Affordability+and+Jobs+Act","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.04,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"FERC's eLibrary shows a new Notice of Proposed Rulemaking docket addressing large load or data center incremental transmission cost allocation, posted by January 12, 2027.","tests":"Separates the Stabilization and Advance Coordination branches (clear early rule) from the Lock-in Race and Shadow Workaround branches (rule lags, grandfathering hardens).","signal":"FERC rulemaking docket opens","metric":"Presence of a new FERC Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on data center or large load incremental transmission cost allocation","threshold":"docket opened (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-12","source":"https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/search","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"FERC's eLibrary docket shows an interim or final rule on data center transmission cost allocation that explicitly grandfathers pre-existing interconnection or service agreements from the new cost rules by 2027-12-31.","tests":"Separates worlds where early movers and existing contracts lock in advantages under a grandfathering clause from worlds where no such carve-out appears and all projects face the same new cost.","signal":"FERC rule includes grandfathering clause","metric":"whether FERC's data center transmission cost-allocation rule (interim or final) contains an explicit provision exempting already-executed interconnection or service agreements from the new cost-allocation requirements","threshold":"explicit grandfathering provision present in the rule text","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-12-31","source":"https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/search","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.09,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The number of active local data center moratoriums reported by a public tracker (such as NCSL or Data Center Dynamics) is lower on June 30, 2027 than on October 14, 2026.","tests":"Separates Advance Coordination and Speed Gains branches (moratoriums lift) from Regional Winners and Losers and Paperwork Speeds Construction Stalls branches (moratoriums persist).","signal":"Moratorium count trend","metric":"Count of active local data center moratoriums tracked by a public policy tracker","threshold":"net decrease in reported moratorium count","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.ncsl.org/energy/state-data-center-legislation","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"FRED series APU000072610 reads more than 5 percent above its October 2026 level by December 2027.","tests":"Separates Speed Gains with Partial Cost Shift (ratepayers absorb some cost) from Stabilization and Advance Coordination branches where bills stay contained.","signal":"Residential electricity price trend","metric":"FRED series APU000072610, US city average residential electricity price per kilowatt hour","threshold":"more than 5 percent above the October 2026 level","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-12-15","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610","probability":0.6428571428571429,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A federal circuit court docket shows an accepted challenge to FERC's data center transmission cost allocation grandfathering rule by September 30, 2027.","tests":"Separates the Lock-in Race branch (grandfathering holds, early movers protected) from the Shadow Workaround branch where loopholes get challenged and closed.","signal":"Grandfather clause litigation","metric":"Whether a federal court accepts a legal challenge to FERC's cost allocation rule's grandfathering provisions","threshold":"challenge accepted or docketed (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-09-30","source":"https://www.courtlistener.com/","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"a7330c28","question":"With a new study counting nearly 183,000 giant tortoises on Seychelles' Aldabra atoll, decades after fewer than 1,000 survived, can this recovery model be copied for other endangered island species before their populations crash again?","recorded":"2026-10-14","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"individuals","calm":227000,"rough":50000,"worlds":[{"value":189000,"low":177000,"high":198000},{"value":174000,"low":156000,"high":184000},{"value":176000,"low":162000,"high":183000},{"value":186000,"low":160000,"high":205000},{"value":151000,"low":118000,"high":172000},{"value":184000,"low":165000,"high":196000},{"value":179000,"low":167000,"high":188000},{"value":177000,"low":160000,"high":185000},{"value":162000,"low":138000,"high":177000},{"value":172000,"low":152000,"high":182000},{"value":120000,"low":85000,"high":152000},{"value":165000,"low":146000,"high":178000}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Before 2027-01-12, the Seychelles Islands Foundation, a Seychelles government ministry, or a major donor publicly reports a funding shortfall, freeze, or interruption specifically affecting Aldabra's invasive species control work, rather than announcing a new funding commitment.","tests":"Separates worlds where political upheaval, a cabinet reshuffle, or donor pullback actually interrupts Aldabra's funding from worlds where funding stays steady or any wobble is absorbed before becoming a reported gap.","signal":"Funding gap reported, not a pledge","metric":"public disclosure of a funding shortfall or freeze for Aldabra's predator-control program","threshold":"a funding shortfall, freeze, or gap is publicly disclosed","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-12","source":"https://www.sif.sc","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Seychelles Nation newspaper (nation.sc) or the Seychelles Islands Foundation reports at least one new invasive predator incursion on Aldabra Atoll before 2027-01-12.","tests":"Separates the reserve-absorbs-shock branch from the recruitment-damage and funding-collapse branches.","signal":"Predator incursion reports","metric":"News or official reports of rat or cat incursions reaching previously clean Aldabra shoreline","threshold":"at least one new incursion report appears","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-12","source":"https://www.nation.sc","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Seychelles Islands Foundation or IUCN confirms documented breeding at a non-Aldabra tortoise translocation site before 2027-04-14.","tests":"Separates the model-partly-travels branch from scenarios where copycat efforts stall.","signal":"Translocation breeding confirmation","metric":"Confirmed breeding success at a tortoise translocation site outside Aldabra","threshold":"documented breeding confirmed at a translocation site","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-04-14","source":"https://www.sif.sc","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Before 2027-01-12, the Seychelles Islands Foundation, Exeter University, or IUCN publishes a new population estimate for Aldabra's giant tortoises that is lower than the study's count of 183,000.","tests":"Separates worlds where a cyclone, drought, or funding collapse quickly drags the tortoise count down from the record 183,000 figure from worlds where the population holds steady, plateaus, or keeps edging upward near that level.","signal":"Population count drops below the headline figure","metric":"next official population estimate for Aldabra giant tortoises","threshold":"183,000","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-12","source":"https://www.sif.sc","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"735c8050","question":"After Kelly Clarkson's dispute with Brooklyn's Art of Play went viral and its owner reports threats and doxxing, will celebrity callouts of small shops keep escalating into real safety and business risk faster than platforms can moderate them?","recorded":"2026-10-14","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Art of Play's Google Business average rating is at or above 4.0 stars as of 2026-11-15.","tests":"Separates the calmer reputational-pressure and fast-reversal branches from the harassment-outpaces-moderation branch, where ratings stay depressed.","signal":"Shop rating recovery","metric":"Art of Play's public Google Business rating","threshold":"at or above 4.0 stars","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-15","source":"https://www.google.com/search?q=art+of+play+brooklyn+google+reviews","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"At least one new celebrity-versus-small-business viral harassment incident is reported by a major US outlet between 2026-10-14 and 2027-01-12.","tests":"Distinguishes the copycat-wave branch (pattern spreading) from the contained, one-off incident branches.","signal":"Copycat incident emergence","metric":"Count of reported celebrity callout versus small business incidents covered by major US outlets","threshold":"at least one reported incident","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-12","source":"https://news.google.com/search?q=celebrity%20called%20out%20small%20business%20harassment","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.8,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A lawsuit or formal legal complaint related to the Art of Play dispute is filed in a US court or with law enforcement by 2026-12-31.","tests":"Tests whether the legal-remedy lever, shown as slow and rare across our runs, actually activates in this case.","signal":"Legal action filed","metric":"Presence of a filed lawsuit or formal legal complaint tied to the Art of Play dispute","threshold":"filing occurs","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.courtlistener.com/","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Meta, TikTok, or X publishes a policy update specifically addressing creator-triggered harassment of small businesses by 2027-04-14.","tests":"Separates the copycat-forces-systemic-change branch from branches where platforms add only minor tools without structural reform.","signal":"Platform policy change","metric":"Public announcement of a creator harassment or small-business protection policy by a major social platform","threshold":"policy update published","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-04-14","source":"https://about.fb.com/news/","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"45023963","question":"With the US and Iran formally signing a 14-point memorandum this week and Putin offering to mediate in the Middle East, could the deal actually reduce the shadow conflict, or is it mostly symbolic?","recorded":"2026-10-14","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The IAEA's safeguards report for its November or December 2026 Board of Governors meeting states inspectors have full access to all declared Iranian nuclear sites.","tests":"Separates the real-compliance branch from the paper-only or collapse branches, where IAEA access stalls or degrades.","signal":"IAEA report on Iran site access","metric":"IAEA safeguards report language on access to declared Iranian nuclear sites","threshold":"full access confirmed rather than disputed or denied","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.iaea.org/newscenter","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The US Congress passes legislation or a resolution authorizing sanctions relief under the Iran MOU by January 12, 2027.","tests":"Separates cooperative-track branches, where funding moves, from the branch where reconstruction cash stays legally stuck.","signal":"Congress acts on sanctions relief","metric":"US congressional legislation authorizing sanctions relief tied to the Iran MOU","threshold":"legislation passed versus not passed","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-12","source":"https://www.congress.gov","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"UKMTO records at least one Houthi-attributed attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden between October 14, 2026 and November 14, 2026.","tests":"Distinguishes the full-compliance branch, where Houthis go quiet, from branches where harassment continues underneath the headlines.","signal":"Houthi attack on Red Sea shipping","metric":"UKMTO incident reports in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden","threshold":"at least one incident reported","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-14","source":"https://www.ukmto.org","probability":0.6428571428571429,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"ACLED records at least one Israeli strike on a Hezbollah-linked target in Lebanon between October 14, 2026 and November 14, 2026.","tests":"Separates the calm-Lebanon branch from the branches where Israeli independence keeps the shadow conflict alive, including the collapse scenario.","signal":"Israeli strike in Lebanon","metric":"ACLED-recorded Israeli strikes on Hezbollah-linked targets in Lebanon","threshold":"at least one recorded strike","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-14","source":"https://acleddata.com","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Public reporting confirms at least $10 billion disbursed from the reconstruction fund to Iran by March 14, 2027.","tests":"Separates branches where money actually flows from the branch where funding stalls under congressional or investor pressure.","signal":"Reconstruction fund disbursement","metric":"Confirmed disbursement from the $300 billion reconstruction fund to Iran","threshold":"at least $10 billion disbursed","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-03-14","source":"https://www.reuters.com","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"By November 14, 2026, credible public reporting (leaked IAEA draft, official statement, or wire-service report) confirms an unresolved access dispute or restricted inspector access at an Iranian nuclear site, distinct from the later formal November/December Board of Governors finding.","tests":"Separates worlds where an early access dispute, leaked draft, or degraded cooperation surfaces from worlds where inspections and.","signal":"Early leak or dispute over IAEA access","metric":"Public reporting (news coverage, leaked documents, or official statements) describing an unresolved dispute over inspector access to Iranian nuclear sites, ahead of the formal Board of Governors report","threshold":"existence of confirmed reporting on an unresolved access dispute","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-14","source":"https://www.iaea.org/newscenter","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"ede3f2a8","question":"With the US and Iran formally signing a 14-point memorandum this week and Putin offering to mediate in the Middle East, could the deal actually reduce the shadow conflict, or is it mostly symbolic?","recorded":"2026-10-13","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The IAEA Director General's report, published before 2026-12-15, confirms that inspectors conducted at least one unannounced inspection of Fordow or another declared Iranian enrichment site during November or December 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where technical committees and expanded access give verification real teeth (Strait reopens under a workable toll regime, proxy restraint holds) from worlds where inspection access stays partial, hollowed-out, or nonexistent even as the MOU survives on paper.","signal":"IAEA gains real unannounced access","metric":"whether IAEA inspectors actually carry out an unannounced inspection at a declared Iranian enrichment site (not just a scheduled or symbolic visit)","threshold":"at least one confirmed unannounced inspection","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/reports","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Public reporting from major wire services (e.g., Reuters, AP) confirms that Israel has conducted a military strike on an Iranian nuclear facility, such as Fordow, before 2026-12-20.","tests":"Separates worlds where Israel actually strikes an Iranian nuclear site, shattering the MOU or forcing Tehran to unleash proxies, from worlds where Israel keeps its strike option loaded but holds back, letting the fragile thaw or managed stalemate continue.","signal":"Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear site","metric":"whether Israel carries out a military strike on an Iranian nuclear facility such as Fordow","threshold":"at least one confirmed strike on a declared nuclear facility","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://apnews.com/hub/israel","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"ACLED's November 2026 data records 15 or more Houthi-attributed attacks in Yemen or the Red Sea shipping lanes.","tests":"Separates contained proxy-restraint branches from the weaponized or escalation branches.","signal":"Houthi attack tempo","metric":"ACLED-recorded Houthi-attributed attacks in Yemen and the Red Sea for November 2026","threshold":"15 or more attacks in a single month","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://acleddata.com/explorer/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Congress.gov records a Senate floor vote or committee markup on the US-Iran memorandum before 2026-11-30.","tests":"Separates a path toward real ratification from domestic gridlock and stalemate.","signal":"US Senate action on the memorandum","metric":"Senate floor vote or formal committee markup on the US-Iran memorandum, tracked via Congress.gov","threshold":"any recorded vote or formal markup occurs","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-30","source":"https://www.congress.gov/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.22,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"EIA or shipping trackers report a Strait of Hormuz transit disruption lasting more than 72 hours before 2026-12-20.","tests":"Separates the structural breakdown and blockade branch from all branches where the Strait stays open.","signal":"Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption","metric":"EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints assessment of Strait of Hormuz tanker transit","threshold":"disruption lasting more than 72 hours","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"302d3550","question":"After Starship's first orbital flight and a packed week of SpaceX launches, how fast does the commercial space race accelerate into 2027?","recorded":"2026-10-13","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"SpaceX completes at least two Starship orbital test flights between 2026-10-13 and 2027-01-10.","tests":"Separates the steady-ramp and logistics-capped worlds from the grounded-stall world.","signal":"Starship near-term flight cadence","metric":"Number of Starship orbital test flights launched","threshold":"at least 2 flights","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://www.faa.gov/space/stldata","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.38,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"At least one major commercial satellite operator publicly announces adding Blue Origin, Arianespace, or another non-SpaceX launch provider to its contract portfolio (explicitly citing diversification away from reliance on SpaceX) by 2027-01-10.","tests":"Separates worlds where customers or a consortium visibly spread bets across multiple launch providers after supply or reliability shocks, versus worlds where the market stays consolidated around SpaceX.","signal":"Operators hedge away from SpaceX","metric":"whether a major commercial satellite operator publicly diversifies launch contracts to a non-SpaceX provider","threshold":"at least 1 public diversification announcement","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://spacenews.com/","probability":0.6428571428571429,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The FAA opens a mishap investigation that grounds Starship flights for more than 30 days between 2026-10-13 and 2027-01-10.","tests":"Separates the grounded-stall and cascading-delay worlds from all calmer branches.","signal":"Raptor or heat shield mishap investigation","metric":"FAA mishap investigation grounding Starship flights","threshold":"grounding exceeding 30 days","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://www.faa.gov/newsroom","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.27,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"NASA's official Artemis schedule page lists Artemis III with a no-earlier-than date after 2027-12-31.","tests":"Separates the promises-outpace-performance and logistics-capped worlds from the steady-ramp world.","signal":"NASA's public Artemis III schedule","metric":"NASA's official Artemis program schedule page target date for Artemis III","threshold":"target date moves past end of 2027","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/artemis/","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Jonathan's Space Report lists fewer than 200 Starlink V3 satellites in orbit as of 2027-09-30.","tests":"Separates the steady-ramp and competitive-pressure worlds from the grounded-stall world.","signal":"Starlink V3 satellite deployment pace","metric":"Count of Starlink V3 satellites in orbit","threshold":"fewer than 200 satellites","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-09-30","source":"https://planet4589.org/space/jsr/","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"NASA publicly announces additional funding or a contract modification formally designating Blue Origin's Blue Moon as a backup or alternate Human Landing System provider for Artemis by 2027-11-15.","tests":"Separates worlds where safety reviewers or new HLS competition push NASA to formally fund Blue Origin as a real backup, versus worlds where SpaceX remains Artemis's effectively sole lander provider.","signal":"NASA formally backs Blue Origin as HLS backup","metric":"whether NASA formally funds or contractually designates Blue Moon as a backup Human Landing System provider","threshold":"formal NASA funding/contract designation occurs","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-11-15","source":"https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/artemis/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"fd6aa062","question":"With the 30-year mortgage rate climbing to 7.4% this week and Redfin showing homes sitting longer on the market, will prices and sales keep stalling through 2026, or is a thaw finally near?","recorded":"2026-10-13","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending December 17, 2026 is at or below 7.00% or at or above 8.00%.","tests":"Separates the world where a fresh geopolitical shock pushes rates up toward 8% and the world where a recession forces the Fed to cut fast, from the majority of worlds where the rate stays roughly between 7.2% and 7.5% all year.","signal":"Mortgage rate breaks out of its band","metric":"Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed mortgage rate","threshold":"7.00% (low) or 8.00% (high)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-17","source":"https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Redfin's national share of listings with a price drop, four-week average ending around December 20, 2026, is at or above 23%.","tests":"Distinguishes the seller-capitulation and regional-fracture branches from the steady stall branch where cuts hold near 21%.","signal":"Share of listings with price cuts","metric":"Redfin Data Center national share of for-sale listings with a price drop, four-week rolling average","threshold":"at or above 23%","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/","probability":0.6428571428571429,"probability_control":0.6,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"NAR's Pending Home Sales Index for October 2026, released in late November 2026, is down more than 8% year-over-year.","tests":"Separates worlds where pending sales fall harder than the roughly-8%-below-last-year baseline from worlds where the decline holds near or less than that baseline or starts recovering (patchwork or regional thaw).","signal":"Pending sales fall deeper than last year's gap","metric":"NAR Pending Home Sales Index, year-over-year percent change for October 2026","threshold":"more than 8% year-over-year decline","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-11-25","source":"https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index year-over-year change for September 2026, per FRED, is below 0.0%.","tests":"Separates worlds where national prices actually slip negative from worlds where prices stay flat to modestly positive nationally.","signal":"National price index turns negative","metric":"Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year change","threshold":"0.0%","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-11-24","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.28,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December 2026 is lower than its November 2026 reading.","tests":"Separates worlds where builder confidence keeps deteriorating through year-end from worlds where local buydowns and concessions let sentiment stabilize or tick up (patchwork or regional thaw).","signal":"Builder sentiment keeps sliding","metric":"NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, month-over-month change","threshold":"below the November 2026 reading","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-16","source":"https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.52,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The 4-week moving average of U.S. initial jobless claims, per FRED, is above 250,000 for the week ending December 12, 2026.","tests":"A clear rise supports the recession-shock branch, where the freeze breaks unevenly through job losses rather than a rate thaw.","signal":"Labor market stress as a recession trigger","metric":"Initial jobless claims, seasonally adjusted, 4-week moving average (FRED series ICSA)","threshold":"above 250,000","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-12","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA","probability":0.14285714285714285,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"79efbeab","question":"After a Houthi missile attack killed at least 12 people and injured over 300 at Riyadh's international airport, how far could the renewed Saudi-Houthi conflict escalate, and could it drag in US forces or spike oil prices again?","recorded":"2026-10-12","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":-5,"rough":52.6,"worlds":[{"value":11,"low":6,"high":16},{"value":17,"low":8,"high":29},{"value":16,"low":7,"high":28},{"value":5,"low":1,"high":12},{"value":28,"low":15,"high":42},{"value":7,"low":3,"high":15},{"value":16,"low":7,"high":29},{"value":27,"low":14,"high":40},{"value":18,"low":8,"high":32},{"value":11,"low":4,"high":20},{"value":14,"low":6,"high":24},{"value":13,"low":5,"high":23}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The EIA Brent spot price for December 18, 2026 closes above $80 per barrel.","tests":"Distinguishes a sustained elevated oil plateau (infrastructure damage or spillover branches) from a restraint-driven easing back toward baseline.","signal":"Oil price plateau versus retreat","metric":"EIA Brent spot price, dollars per barrel","threshold":"above $80 per barrel","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-18","source":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrteD.htm","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.38,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The US Department of Defense publicly confirms at least one direct airstrike on Houthi targets in Yemen between October 12, 2026 and December 20, 2026.","tests":"Distinguishes the limited US strikes branch (largest single cluster) from containment paths with no US entry.","signal":"Direct US military entry","metric":"Confirmed US Department of Defense airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen","threshold":"at least one confirmed strike","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.42,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"IMF PortWatch daily transit data for the Bab al-Mandeb Strait shows a weekly average below 30 vessels per day at any point before December 15, 2026.","tests":"Distinguishes the Red Sea spillover and strait disruption branch from scenarios where shipping keeps flowing normally.","signal":"Red Sea shipping disruption","metric":"Daily vessel transit counts through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait","threshold":"below 30 vessels per day weekly average","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://portwatch.imf.org/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"ACLED records fewer than 3 Houthi missile or drone attacks on Saudi Arabian territory between November 1, 2026 and December 20, 2026.","tests":"Distinguishes a truce or restraint path from a sustained slow burn or renewed escalation.","signal":"Houthi attack tempo on Saudi Arabia","metric":"ACLED recorded Houthi missile or drone attacks on Saudi Arabian territory","threshold":"fewer than 3 recorded attacks","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://acleddata.com/explorer/","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency or State Department announces a new interceptor missile sale or transfer to Saudi Arabia before November 15, 2026.","tests":"Distinguishes a cooperative containment path with allied resupply from an interceptor depletion crisis path.","signal":"Saudi air defense resupply","metric":"US or allied interceptor missile sale or transfer announcements to Saudi Arabia","threshold":"at least one new announced transfer","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-15","source":"https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"cc17a500","question":"With weekly jobless claims hovering near historic lows even as Amazon, Nike, Microsoft and Oracle keep announcing fresh cuts, what does the gap between layoff headlines and unemployment data reveal about the US job market heading into 2027?","recorded":"2026-10-12","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-03-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"thousands of new claims per week","calm":165,"rough":445,"worlds":[{"value":210,"low":193,"high":238},{"value":305,"low":255,"high":365},{"value":278,"low":245,"high":320},{"value":225,"low":200,"high":255},{"value":345,"low":300,"high":410},{"value":238,"low":212,"high":292},{"value":275,"low":235,"high":325},{"value":265,"low":245,"high":300},{"value":250,"low":225,"high":285},{"value":245,"low":215,"high":285},{"value":265,"low":235,"high":310},{"value":258,"low":228,"high":300}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The FRED ICSA initial jobless claims figure for the week ending January 2, 2027 is above 225,000.","tests":"Separates the hidden-damage-stays-low path from the broad-layoffs-push-claims-up path early in the window.","signal":"Initial claims tick up early in 2027","metric":"Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims, seasonally adjusted (FRED series ICSA)","threshold":"above 225,000","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-09","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The FRED CCSA continuing claims figure for the week ending December 26, 2026 is above 1,900,000.","tests":"Tests whether long-term unemployment is quietly building even while headline claims look calm.","signal":"Continuing claims climb, signaling longer unemployment spells","metric":"Continuing jobless claims, seasonally adjusted (FRED series CCSA)","threshold":"above 1,900,000","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-08","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The EIA U.S. average retail diesel price for the week of January 4, 2027 is above $4.00 per gallon.","tests":"Flags whether the external-shock scenario, where an energy spike turns freezes into real layoffs, is in motion.","signal":"Diesel prices stay elevated into the new year","metric":"U.S. average retail diesel price, EIA weekly report","threshold":"above $4.00 per gallon","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-06","source":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The FRED ICSA initial jobless claims figure for the week ending March 6, 2027 is above 260,000.","tests":"Tests whether broad-based layoffs materialize by the end of Q1 2027 versus staying muted near historic lows.","signal":"Claims cross the mid-200s plateau by spring","metric":"Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims, seasonally adjusted (FRED series ICSA)","threshold":"above 260,000","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-03-12","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The FOMC lowers its target federal funds rate range at its March 2027 meeting by at least 25 basis points.","tests":"Signals whether the Fed has judged the broader softening real rather than just a calm headline number.","signal":"The Fed cuts rates to cushion a weakening job market","metric":"Federal Open Market Committee target federal funds rate decision","threshold":"cut of 25 basis points or more","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-03-18","source":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Combined WARN notices filed in California, New York, Texas, Florida and Illinois for January through March 2027 exceed 50,000 workers.","tests":"Separates quiet, masked layoffs that avoid formal filings from a broad, visible layoff wave.","signal":"WARN layoff notices pile up across big states","metric":"Aggregate WARN Act layoff notices filed across major states, tracked via the Department of Labor","threshold":"above 50,000 workers","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-03-20","source":"https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/layoffs/warn","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.7,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"99d4e22a","question":"With AAA reporting the first ever $4-plus national average gas price in October and crude oil back above $90 a barrel after Hurricane Isaias, will pump prices and winter heating costs keep climbing into 2027?","recorded":"2026-10-12","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-03-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"dollars per gallon","calm":2.96,"rough":6.6,"worlds":[{"value":4.38,"low":4.15,"high":4.6},{"value":4.58,"low":4.35,"high":4.85},{"value":4.58,"low":4.3,"high":4.9},{"value":3.55,"low":3.3,"high":3.95},{"value":5.1,"low":4.55,"high":6.2},{"value":3.95,"low":3.78,"high":4.18},{"value":4.58,"low":4.3,"high":4.92},{"value":4.65,"low":4.35,"high":5.05},{"value":4.68,"low":4.4,"high":4.95},{"value":4.15,"low":3.9,"high":4.45},{"value":4.72,"low":4.42,"high":5.08},{"value":4.74,"low":4.48,"high":5.05}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"AAA's national average retail price for regular gasoline is at or above $4.50 per gallon on any day between 2026-10-12 and 2027-01-10.","tests":"Distinguishes the structural plateau and supply-shock branches from the diplomatic easing branch.","signal":"National gas average crosses a higher threshold","metric":"AAA national average retail price for regular gasoline","threshold":"at or above $4.50 per gallon","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://gasprices.aaa.com/","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"EIA's Northeast residential heating oil price is at or above $4.50 per gallon in any weekly report published between 2026-10-12 and 2026-12-31.","tests":"Distinguishes the downstream fuel-pain (diesel and heating oil) branch from the plateau and easing branches.","signal":"Northeast heating oil breaks a key level","metric":"EIA Northeast residential No. 2 heating oil retail price","threshold":"at or above $4.50 per gallon","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.42,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The FRED DCOILWTICO WTI crude oil spot price is above $85 per barrel on 2026-12-15.","tests":"Separates the structural and supply-shock branches (crude holding near $90-plus) from the cooperative easing branch (crude sliding toward the mid-$70s).","signal":"Crude oil stays elevated or slides","metric":"WTI crude oil spot price, FRED series DCOILWTICO","threshold":"above $85 per barrel","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.62,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"OPEC+'s official December 2026 meeting communique announces a production increase of at least 500,000 barrels per day.","tests":"Distinguishes the cooperative easing branch from the OPEC-discipline-driven plateau and supply-shock branches.","signal":"OPEC+ adds meaningful output","metric":"OPEC+ announced production quota change","threshold":"increase of at least 500,000 barrels per day","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/28.htm","probability":0.14285714285714285,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.14285714285714285,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":1,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The U.S. Department of Energy announces a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of at least 10 million barrels before 2027-01-05.","tests":"Separates branches that include a policy relief valve from those where no SPR release occurs.","signal":"US taps the emergency oil stockpile","metric":"DOE Strategic Petroleum Reserve release announcement, total barrels","threshold":"at least 10 million barrels","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-05","source":"https://www.energy.gov/ceser/strategic-petroleum-reserve","probability":0.07142857142857142,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.07142857142857142,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":0,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"AAA's national average retail price for regular gasoline is at or above $4.25 per gallon on 2027-03-24.","tests":"Distinguishes the stubborn plateau and supply-shock branches from the stabilization or drift-down branch.","signal":"Spring gas prices still elevated","metric":"AAA national average retail price for regular gasoline","threshold":"at or above $4.25 per gallon","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-03-24","source":"https://gasprices.aaa.com/","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"5bf41f80","question":"With early voting starting soon and Michael Whatley's campaign pulling TV ads while Republican super PACs redirect tens of millions elsewhere, is the GOP already writing off North Carolina's Senate seat three weeks before election day?","recorded":"2026-10-12","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2026-11-03","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"NCSBE's early voting report dated October 26, 2026 shows registered Democrats outpacing registered Republicans among in-person early ballots cast by more than 8 percentage points.","tests":"Separates the early-voting lock-in and disarray branches from the floor-holding branch.","signal":"Early voting party gap widens","metric":"North Carolina State Board of Elections early voting statistics, share of in-person ballots cast by registered Democrats minus share cast by registered Republicans","threshold":"Democratic share minus Republican share of early in-person ballots exceeds 8 points","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-26","source":"https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/absentee-data","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"NCSBE data (via WBTV Oct 19, 2026) showed ~45% of in-person early ballots from Democrats vs ~20% Republicans as of Oct 17, a gap of ~25 pp, well above 8 pp, per wbtv.com.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.786,"worlds_right":10,"actual_value":25,"actual_label":"~25pp Dem margin as of Oct 17","brier":0.045918367346938785,"brier_control":0.48999999999999994},{"event":"FEC independent expenditure records show Senate Leadership Fund filing new ad buys for the Kansas Senate race between October 12 and October 26, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where SLF's redirected money is explicitly shown paying off or being protected in Kansas, versus worlds where no such Kansas reallocation is reported or confirmed.","signal":"SLF money reappears in Kansas","metric":"Senate Leadership Fund independent expenditure filings for the Kansas Senate race","threshold":"any new filing (greater than $0)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-26","source":"https://www.fec.gov/data/independent-expenditures/","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"SLF confirmed ongoing Kansas ad buys within the Oct 12-26 window per their Oct 23 press release and FEC pre-election filings, consistent with the ~$8.2M Kansas buy announced Oct 2, per senateleadershipfund.org.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.286,"worlds_right":3,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.5102040816326531,"brier_control":0.022500000000000006},{"event":"The Cook Political Report upgrades its North Carolina Senate race rating to Solid Democratic, its most decisive category, by October 26, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where Cooper's win becomes a landslide-level blowout versus worlds where it remains a clear but moderate, mid-single-digit margin.","signal":"Cook upgrades NC to Solid Democratic","metric":"Cook Political Report's race rating category for the North Carolina Senate race","threshold":"Solid Democratic (as opposed to Likely Democratic or a less certain rating)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-26","source":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"Cook Political Report upgraded NC Senate to 'Likely Democrat' on Oct 6, 2026, stopping short of 'Solid Democratic,' per ncpoliticalnews.com and cookpolitical.com.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.214,"worlds_right":2,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.6173469387755102,"brier_control":0.12249999999999998},{"event":"The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Cooper leading Whatley by 7 points or more as of October 26, 2026.","tests":"Separates the severe and shock-driven landslide branches from the mid single digit floor-holding branch.","signal":"Polling gap stays wide or widens","metric":"RealClearPolitics polling average margin in the North Carolina Senate race","threshold":"Cooper polling average lead of 7 points or more","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-26","source":"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2026/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_whatley_vs_cooper-9999.html","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"RCP polling average showed Cooper leading Whatley by +8.5 to +10.6 points across Oct 2026 snapshots, well above the 7-point threshold, per realclearpolling.com.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.786,"worlds_right":10,"actual_value":10.6,"actual_label":"Cooper +10.6 (RCP avg, 9/27-10/20)","brier":0.045918367346938785,"brier_control":0.20249999999999996},{"event":"No Trump rally or new seven-figure Republican ad buy for Whatley in North Carolina is reported by major outlets before October 26, 2026.","tests":"Separates the disarray and committed-retreat branches from a late-stabilization scenario.","signal":"No visible GOP rescue effort appears","metric":"Public reporting on a Trump rally, surprise ad buy, or coordinated last-minute Republican push for Whatley","threshold":"absence of any reported rally or new large-scale ad buy for Whatley","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-26","source":"https://www.politico.com/news/2026-midterms","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"Trump held a rally for Whatley in Greenville, NC on Oct 20, 2026, and PAC Securing American Greatness contributed ~$2.2M for Whatley, both reported before Oct 26, per ncnewsline.com.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.214,"worlds_right":2,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.6173469387755102,"brier_control":0.42250000000000004},{"event":"At least one major outlet reports named or anonymous Republican infighting over the North Carolina pullback before October 26, 2026.","tests":"Separates the fractured-retreat branch from the coordinated-triage branch.","signal":"Open GOP blame-shifting becomes public","metric":"Reported instances of Republican officials or PAC sources anonymously blaming each other for the North Carolina pullback","threshold":"at least one credible news report documenting internal GOP blame-shifting","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-26","source":"https://www.axios.com/politics-policy","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"Washington Post headlined 'GOP has pulled North Carolina money, but Trump rallies for Whatley' and Axios reported the pullback as a sign Republicans don't think Whatley can win, both framing Republican strategic infighting, per washingtonpost.com and axios.com.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.286,"worlds_right":3,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.5102040816326531,"brier_control":0.022500000000000006}]},{"run_id":"eccfa887","question":"Viral listicles cataloguing Gen Z and Gen Alpha's 'warning signs,' from vaping to screen anxiety to no eye contact, are spreading across Yahoo and BuzzFeed this week. Is this new evidence or the same generational panic every cohort recycles?","recorded":"2026-10-12","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Google Trends US weekly interest score for 'Gen Z warning signs' is below 10 for the week ending 2026-12-06.","tests":"Separates quick fade (panic dissipates) from the conflict-becomes-content or embedding branches, which would keep interest elevated.","signal":"Search interest in the panic topic cools off","metric":"Google Trends US weekly interest score for the search term 'Gen Z warning signs'","threshold":"below 10 on the 0-100 Google Trends scale","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-06","source":"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=Gen%20Z%20warning%20signs&geo=US","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"By 2026-11-10, BuzzFeed or Yahoo publishes a follow-up article that quotes a named researcher, psychologist, or clinician directly disputing the 'warning signs' claims within their own coverage.","tests":"Separates worlds where the outlets themselves actively pair the claims with researcher pushback or youth voices in their coverage from worlds where any correction stays external to the outlets, gets absorbed into a feud/content cycle, or never surfaces in the original publishers' own pages.","signal":"Outlet quotes a named researcher pushing back","metric":"whether BuzzFeed's or Yahoo's own follow-up coverage names and quotes a researcher, psychologist, or clinician disputing the warning-signs claims","threshold":"first named-researcher quote appears in the outlets' own coverage","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-10","source":"https://www.buzzfeed.com/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A verifiable news report confirms a US school district or employer HR program cites these listicle claims in official training or curriculum material by 2027-01-10.","tests":"Distinguishes the panic-embeds-into-informal-practice branch from the fade and correction branches.","signal":"The claims get cited in a real institution","metric":"Documented news report of a US school district or employer HR program citing 'Gen Z warning signs' listicle claims in training or curriculum material","threshold":"at least one documented citation (binary)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://news.google.com/search?q=%22Gen%20Z%20warning%20signs%22%20school%20OR%20HR","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A TikTok parody or counter meme hashtag responding to the warning signs listicle shows over 5 million displayed views by 2026-11-15.","tests":"Tests how strong the satire-and-mockery cooling effect is versus the conflict-becomes-content path.","signal":"Gen Z pushback outruns the original story","metric":"TikTok hashtag view count for a Gen Z or Gen Alpha parody or counter meme responding to the warning signs listicle","threshold":"above 5 million displayed views","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-15","source":"https://www.tiktok.com/tag/genzwarningsigns","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"No US state legislature or public health agency guidance document cites generational warning signs screen time claims by 2027-04-12.","tests":"Checks the low-probability tail where the panic reaches formal legislation or clinical guidance rather than just informal practice.","signal":"No formal policy citation emerges over the longer run","metric":"US state legislative record or public health agency guidance referencing generational screen time or behavior warning claims","threshold":"zero documented citations in formal legislative or agency text","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-04-12","source":"https://www.ncsl.org/search?q=gen+z+screen+time+warning+signs","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"cd4e3d1c","question":"As retailers build storefronts inside Roblox and Fortnite to reach Gen Alpha before they ever visit a store, will in-game shopping become a real sales channel in the next year, or stay a marketing gimmick that never converts to purchases?","recorded":"2026-10-12","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The FTC publishes an enforcement action, settlement, or proposed rule specifically addressing in-game purchases by minors on platforms like Roblox or Fortnite by January 9, 2027.","tests":"Separates Parental Approval Bottleneck Holds / Consent Rules Freeze the Channel versus the other branches.","signal":"FTC or regulator action on kids' in-game payments","metric":"Public FTC enforcement action, settlement, or proposed rule on minors' in-game purchases","threshold":"at least one formal FTC action published","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-09","source":"https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Roblox Corporation or Epic Games publicly announces discontinuation or reduction of a physical-goods checkout or commerce feature by January 9, 2027.","tests":"Separates in-Game Retail Abandoned or Orphaned versus Real Sales Channel Emerges.","signal":"Platform rolls back a commerce feature","metric":"Public announcement of discontinuation or reduction of physical-goods checkout tools on Roblox or Fortnite","threshold":"any public rollback announcement","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-09","source":"https://corp.roblox.com/newsroom","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"By January 9, 2027, a trade publication such as Digiday, Ad Age, or Retail Dive reports that at least one retailer from the NRF Top 100 Retailers list has paused or cut by 50 percent or more its paid media spend on Roblox or Fortnite storefronts, citing weak conversion, fraud, or ROI concerns.","tests":"Separates worlds where early weak-conversion data triggers rapid ad-budget flight from gaming storefronts toward TikTok Shop, Amazon, or physical retail from worlds where retailers hold steady or increase their in-game ad spend.","signal":"Retailer slashes gaming ad spend early","metric":"Whether a major US retailer announces a pause or a cut of 50% or more in its paid media spend on Roblox or Fortnite storefronts","threshold":"cut of 50% or more, or full pause, in paid media spend","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-09","source":"https://digiday.com/marketing/","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"eMarketer or a comparable analyst firm publishes a lowered forecast for gaming commerce ad spend share, versus its prior estimate, by January 9, 2027.","tests":"Separates Channel Stalls at Awareness Layer / Abandoned versus Real Sales Channel Emerges.","signal":"Analyst forecast on gaming commerce ad spend moves down","metric":"eMarketer or comparable analyst forecast for gaming/social commerce ad spend share","threshold":"a downward revision versus the most recent prior published estimate","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-09","source":"https://www.emarketer.com/topics/category/retail-ecommerce","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Walmart, Target, or a comparable mass retailer discloses a specific sales or conversion figure for its Roblox or Fortnite storefront in a Q4 FY2026 earnings call by February 20, 2027.","tests":"Separates Real Sales Channel Emerges / Verified but Modest versus silence implying Stalls at Awareness Layer.","signal":"A major retailer discloses hard in-game sales numbers","metric":"Explicit disclosure of Roblox or Fortnite storefront sales or conversion figures in a retailer's quarterly earnings call","threshold":"any specific disclosed figure, not just traffic or impressions","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-02-20","source":"https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom","probability":0.07142857142857142,"probability_control":0.07,"probability_worlds":0.07142857142857142,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":0,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A named third-party measurement firm publishes an audited in-game-to-purchase conversion rate for a major retail campaign, reporting it below 2 percent, by June 30, 2027.","tests":"Separates Early Measurement Kills Channel Momentum versus Verified but Modest Conversion Channel.","signal":"Independent audit of in-game conversion rates","metric":"Third-party measurement firm (such as Comscore or Kantar) published conversion rate for a major in-game retail campaign","threshold":"audited conversion rate below 2 percent","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.comscore.com/Insights","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"509a7bd8","question":"After Blackbird Spyplane traced J Crew's new Vans campaign photos to an AI image generator, will shoppers treat undisclosed AI 'nostalgia' as a dealbreaker or just shrug and keep buying?","recorded":"2026-10-12","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-03-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Google Trends weekly US search interest for 'J Crew AI' reaches at least 40 (0-100 scale) in any week between 2027-01-01 and 2027-03-17.","tests":"Separates worlds where a second viral flare-up drags attention back up from worlds where the story fades once in the initial news cycle and never spikes again.","signal":"Second wave of 'J Crew AI' search spikes","metric":"Google Trends US weekly search interest for 'J Crew AI' (0-100 scale)","threshold":"40","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-03-17","source":"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=J%20Crew%20AI&geo=US","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.05,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The FTC publishes or is reported to have issued informal guidance, a warning/inquiry letter, or another non-binding public statement about AI-generated imagery disclosure in advertising (short of a formal rule) before 2027-03-24.","tests":"Separates worlds where regulators take some public, even informal, notice of the AI-disclosure issue from worlds where regulators stay silent or explicitly stand down without issuing any statement.","signal":"FTC issues informal AI-disclosure guidance","metric":"Whether the FTC publicly issues non-binding guidance, a letter, or a statement on AI-image disclosure in ads","threshold":"any public FTC statement issued (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-03-24","source":"https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"At least two of Vans, Todd Snyder, or Buck Mason publish a public AI-imagery disclosure policy before 2026-12-31.","tests":"Separates coalition and Market Fragments branches versus the no-action shrug branch.","signal":"Rivals move fast to brand themselves as human-made or disclosed-AI","metric":"Public AI-imagery disclosure policy published by rival heritage apparel brands","threshold":"two or more brands publishing a disclosure policy","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.retaildive.com/topic/marketing/","probability":0.07142857142857142,"probability_control":0.05,"probability_worlds":0.07142857142857142,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":0,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Similarweb's estimated monthly visits to jcrew.com for December 2026 are at least 5 percent below December 2025's estimate.","tests":"Separates Market Fragments and Trust Damaged branches versus the sales-held-flat shrug branch.","signal":"J Crew's holiday traffic shows a real dip rather than a flat result","metric":"Similarweb estimated monthly visits to jcrew.com","threshold":"5 percent or more year over year decline","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-09","source":"https://www.similarweb.com/website/jcrew.com/","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Google Trends US search interest for 'vintage J Crew' averages above 20 (0-100 scale) for the four weeks ending 2027-02-28.","tests":"Separates contagion and Market Fragments branches where a durable vintage shift persists.","signal":"A durable slice of shoppers quietly shifts toward true vintage pieces","metric":"Google Trends US search interest index for 'vintage J Crew'","threshold":"average above 20 on a 0-100 scale","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-02-28","source":"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=vintage%20J%20Crew&geo=US","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A named J.Crew Group executive (CEO or other C-suite leader) issues a public apology specifically addressing the AI-generated photography controversy, as reported by a major business or fashion outlet, before 2027-03-24.","tests":"Separates worlds where J.Crew leadership eventually delivers an explicit personal apology (even if late, amid resignation or scandal escalation) from worlds where the company's response stays limited to policy changes, reframing, or silence without a named executive apologizing.","signal":"Named J Crew executive publicly apologizes","metric":"Whether a named J.Crew Group executive issues a public apology for the AI photography controversy","threshold":"public apology issued (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-03-24","source":"https://www.businessoffashion.com","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.08,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"96088647","question":"As McDonald's leans harder into AI powered menu pricing to defend its affordability pitch, will dynamic pricing for fast food spread to rivals like Yum Brands before diners or regulators push back?","recorded":"2026-10-12","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The FTC's public cases/press-release page lists a formal enforcement action, an emergency injunction filing, or a published sector-wide warning targeting algorithmic or AI-based food pricing by June 30, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where a court verdict, viral incident, or multi-sector contagion pushes the FTC into emergency injunctions or sector-wide warnings from worlds where the FTC closes its probe quietly, sticks to guidance, or relies on private letters with no public action.","signal":"FTC takes public enforcement action","metric":"Whether the FTC publicly escalates against algorithmic food pricing (formal complaint, emergency injunction, or published sector-wide warning), as opposed to closing its probe quietly, issuing only guidance, or using private letters","threshold":"at least 1 public enforcement action, injunction, or sector-wide warning","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.22,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Yum Brands' earnings call transcript or an official press release explicitly states the company has paused, shelved, or pulled back an AI-based dynamic pricing pilot at KFC, Taco Bell, or Pizza Hut by September 15, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where lawsuits, state bans, infrastructure failures, or internal franchisee splits push Yum into a public pullback from worlds where Yum keeps piloting cautiously or races ahead with rollout without ever announcing a retreat.","signal":"Yum publicly pauses AI pricing push","metric":"Whether Yum Brands' investor communications explicitly state it has paused, shelved, or pulled back an AI-based dynamic pricing pilot at any chain, versus continuing to pilot or expand it without such a statement","threshold":"explicit public statement of pause, shelving, or pullback","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-09-15","source":"https://investor.yum.com","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"McDonald's Q1 2027 earnings call does not describe its AI pricing tool as downgraded to advisory only or paused.","tests":"Separates Embedded But Constrained Adoption from Regulatory Shock Halts Adoption.","signal":"McDonald's own language about its pricing tool","metric":"Description of the AI pricing tool's status (expanded, maintained, downgraded, or paused) in McDonald's Q1 2027 earnings call","threshold":"no downgrade or pause announced","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-04-30","source":"https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/investors","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"At least two US states have enacted laws restricting algorithmic food pricing by December 15, 2027.","tests":"Separates Backlash Stalls Before Full Normalization and Regulatory Shock from the Negotiated Middle Ground branch.","signal":"State legislation restricting algorithmic food pricing","metric":"Number of US states with enacted laws restricting algorithmic or dynamic food pricing, per state legislature trackers","threshold":"two or more states with enacted laws","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-12-15","source":"https://www.ncsl.org/technology-and-communication","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"b491a719","question":"As GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic cause stomach trouble for millions of users, will the rush toward fiber and gut health supplements reshape the supplement aisle faster than drugmakers can respond?","recorded":"2026-10-12","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"FDA's warning letters database lists at least one new letter citing GLP-1-related fiber or probiotic supplement claims between October 12, 2026 and January 10, 2027.","tests":"Separates the supply-and-regulatory-brake and hype-crisis branches (fast enforcement) from the quieter orderly-consolidation branch (slow or no enforcement).","signal":"FDA warning letters targeting digestive supplements tied to GLP-1 claims","metric":"Count of new FDA warning letters citing fiber or probiotic supplement claims linked to GLP-1 relief, per FDA's warning letters database","threshold":"at least one new letter","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://www.fda.gov/inspections-compliance-enforcement-and-criminal-investigations/warning-letters","probability":0.6428571428571429,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Crunchbase records at least one funding round of $20 million or more for a U.S. fiber or gut health supplement startup between October 12, 2026 and January 10, 2027.","tests":"Separates independent-brand-led branches from the pharma-alliance consolidation branch where independents get starved of capital.","signal":"Venture funding into independent fiber and gut health startups","metric":"Largest publicly disclosed funding round for a U.S. fiber or gut health supplement startup, as tracked on Crunchbase","threshold":"at least $20 million","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://www.crunchbase.com","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"By January 10, 2027, a major telehealth platform publicly launches or begins marketing its own GLP-1 companion fiber or probiotic supplement product.","tests":"Separates worlds where hype, forum-driven demand, or a counterfeit-product scare push telehealth platforms to launch their own companion supplement lines as part of a fast, messy reshuffle, from worlds where the aisle changes mainly through retailers, independents, or formal pharma-retailer alliance.","signal":"Telehealth platform launches GLP-1 companion supplement","metric":"whether a major telehealth company (e.g., Hims & Hers, Ro) publicly launches or heavily promotes its own fiber or probiotic supplement line aimed at GLP-1 users","threshold":"launch/marketing announcement made (yes/no)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-10","source":"https://www.hims.com/newsroom","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly announces, via press release or SEC filing, a branded GLP-1 companion fiber or probiotic supplement product by June 30, 2027.","tests":"Confirms the orderly-consolidation-around-established-players branch versus scenarios where pharma stays on the sidelines.","signal":"Pharma companion supplement product launch","metric":"Press release or SEC filing from Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly announcing a branded GLP-1 companion fiber or probiotic supplement","threshold":"official product announcement","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany","probability":0.6428571428571429,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"FDA's recall database lists at least one Class I or II recall of a probiotic or fiber supplement marketed for GLP-1-related digestive relief by June 30, 2027.","tests":"Flags the gray-market, hype-driven crisis branch where contamination and recalls trigger a trust collapse.","signal":"Probiotic or fiber supplement recall linked to contamination","metric":"FDA recall database listing for a Class I or II recall of a probiotic or fiber supplement marketed for digestive relief","threshold":"at least one Class I or II recall","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.fda.gov/safety/recalls-market-withdrawals-safety-alerts","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A pharmaceutical company or major retailer publicly announces acquisition of an independent fiber or probiotic supplement brand by September 30, 2027.","tests":"Marks the shift from early independent-brand gains toward consolidation around established players.","signal":"Acquisition of an independent fiber or probiotic brand by pharma or big retail","metric":"Public M&A announcement of an independent fiber or probiotic supplement brand acquired by a pharmaceutical company or major retailer","threshold":"at least one acquisition announcement","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-09-30","source":"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"e7262212","question":"Now that Suno's new AI model is trained on music licensed from Warner, BMG and Believe, does that settle the lawsuits over AI generated music, or just start the next fight over who gets paid?","recorded":"2026-10-11","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts has issued a ruling, partial or final, on the fair use question in the Universal/Sony v. Suno case by January 9, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where litigation stays open and unresolved from worlds where a court decision forces either settlement or escalation.","signal":"Court ruling on the core fair use question","metric":"Docket status of UMG and Sony Music Entertainment v. Suno in U.S. District Court, District of Massachusetts","threshold":"any substantive ruling issued vs. no ruling issued","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-09","source":"https://www.courtlistener.com/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Suno, Warner Music Group or BMG has published a specific numeric royalty rate for AI generated tracks on an official company site or press release by January 9, 2027.","tests":"Separates the quieter payment negotiation path from the legitimacy-cracks-under-disclosure path.","signal":"Public royalty disclosure from Suno or a licensing partner","metric":"Published per-stream or per-track royalty rate for AI generated music from Suno, Warner Music Group or BMG","threshold":"specific published rate vs. continued vague revenue language","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-09","source":"https://wmg.com/news/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.1,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Suno has publicly announced a delay, rollback, or restriction of a previously launched model feature due to legal, regulatory, or reputational pressure by January 9, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where Suno visibly pulls back, throttles, or restricts a launched feature from worlds where it keeps expanding unchecked.","signal":"Suno rolls back a launched feature","metric":"whether Suno publicly announces a delay, rollback, or restriction of a previously launched AI-music feature (e.g., v6) citing legal, regulatory, or reputational pressure","threshold":"a public announcement of feature delay/rollback/restriction","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-09","source":"https://suno.com/blog","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.28,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"At least one non-US regulator (such as Germany's GEMA, the European Commission, or another national copyright authority) has publicly opened a formal inquiry, enforcement action, or service restriction against Suno over AI-generated music by April 11, 2027.","tests":"Separates worlds where foreign regulators actively press Suno (GEMA's German win triggering an EU-wide threat and partial European retreat, foreign regulators demanding answers amid a multiplying legal fight) from worlds where regulatory pressure stays absent or purely domestic.","signal":"Foreign regulator opens inquiry into Suno","metric":"whether a non-US government regulator opens a formal inquiry, enforcement action, or service restriction against Suno over AI-generated music","threshold":"formal inquiry, enforcement action, or service restriction announced","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-04-11","source":"https://www.gema.de/en/press/","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Universal Music Group has publicly announced a licensing settlement with Suno by April 11, 2027.","tests":"Separates the mostly-settled-lawsuits path from the ones where Universal and Sony keep litigating regardless of Warner's deal.","signal":"Universal Music Group licensing settlement","metric":"Official announcement of a licensing agreement between Universal Music Group and Suno","threshold":"announced settlement vs. continued active litigation","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-04-11","source":"https://www.universalmusic.com/press-releases/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"At least two of Spotify, Apple Music, or TikTok have announced a shared or aligned AI music labeling policy by January 9, 2027.","tests":"Separates the industry truce path with a shared template from the patchwork path where platforms splinter further.","signal":"Platform wide AI labeling standard","metric":"Joint or coordinated AI content labeling policy announced by Spotify, Apple Music, or TikTok","threshold":"coordinated policy announced vs. platforms remaining on separate, inconsistent rules","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-09","source":"https://newsroom.spotify.com/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"941bb8ea","question":"While the music press chases this week's viral drops, why are decades old or veteran R&B acts, from Michael Jackson to Jill Scott to Tamia, actually running the charts right now?","recorded":"2026-10-11","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"weeks per trailing 52-week period","calm":54.8,"rough":-3.3,"worlds":[{"value":27,"low":21,"high":33},{"value":24,"low":16,"high":32},{"value":27,"low":19,"high":34},{"value":34,"low":26,"high":42},{"value":4,"low":1,"high":9},{"value":34,"low":27,"high":41},{"value":28,"low":20,"high":36},{"value":34,"low":26,"high":42},{"value":14,"low":8,"high":21},{"value":30,"low":23,"high":38},{"value":36,"low":27,"high":46},{"value":42,"low":34,"high":48}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"On the Billboard R&B Streaming Songs chart dated November 14, 2026, the song at #1 was originally released 15 or more years earlier.","tests":"Separates structural dominance stories from the coexistence or fragmentation stories where new tracks regularly reach #1.","signal":"Catalog track still sits at number one on the R&B streaming chart","metric":"Age of the #1 song on Billboard's R&B Streaming Songs chart","threshold":"age of #1 track at least 15 years","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-14","source":"https://www.billboard.com/charts/rnb-streaming-songs/","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"On the Billboard Adult R&B Airplay chart dated December 19, 2026, at least 3 of the top 10 songs are 15 years old or older.","tests":"Separates radio-driven entrenchment stories from stories where listener fragmentation is already weakening catalog's radio grip.","signal":"Old songs still crowd adult R&B radio's top 10","metric":"Count of songs 15+ years old in the top 10 of Billboard's Adult R&B Airplay chart","threshold":"3 or more of top 10 songs aged 15+ years","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-19","source":"https://www.billboard.com/charts/adult-r-and-b-songs/","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"On the Billboard R&B Streaming Songs chart dated January 2, 2027, the song at #1 was originally released 15 or more years earlier.","tests":"Separates confirms or breaks the pattern from the November snapshot, pointing toward sustained dominance versus an early fragmentation signal.","signal":"A second snapshot confirms catalog's streaming chart grip into the new year","metric":"Age of the #1 song on Billboard's R&B Streaming Songs chart","threshold":"age of #1 track at least 15 years","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-02","source":"https://www.billboard.com/charts/rnb-streaming-songs/","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Between January 1, 2027 and June 30, 2027, tracks 15 or more years old hold Billboard's R&B Streaming Songs #1 spot for at least 13 of those 26 weeks.","tests":"Separates the majority-dominance stories (systematic default and lock-in) from the coexistence and fragmentation stories where catalog holds under half the weeks.","signal":"Half-year tally of catalog weeks at number one","metric":"Cumulative weeks a 15+ year old track held #1 on Billboard's R&B Streaming Songs chart, January to June 2027","threshold":"13 or more of 26 weeks held by a 15+ year old track","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-07-07","source":"https://www.billboard.com/charts/rnb-streaming-songs/","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"In the 52 weeks ending December 25, 2027, tracks 15 or more years old hold Billboard's R&B Streaming Songs #1 spot for 30 or more weeks.","tests":"Distinguishes the high-dominance lock-in stories (roughly 30 to 42+ weeks) from coexistence (around 24 to 28 weeks) and fragmentation (as low as 4 to 14 weeks).","signal":"Full trailing-year tally checks the headline claim before the window closes","metric":"Cumulative weeks a 15+ year old track held #1 on Billboard's R&B Streaming Songs chart, trailing 52 weeks ending December 2027","threshold":"30 or more of 52 weeks held by a 15+ year old track","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-12-24","source":"https://www.billboard.com/charts/rnb-streaming-songs/","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.2,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"a95e188c","question":"With YouGov polling showing independent Dan Osborn essentially tied with Republican Senator Pete Ricketts just as Trump campaigns in the state, can Osborn flip deep red Nebraska in November without running as a Democrat?","recorded":"2026-10-10","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2026-11-03","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Cook Political Report lists the Nebraska Senate race as 'Toss Up' (not a Republican-leaning category) on 2026-10-20.","tests":"Separates the genuinely tied scenario from the hidden-turnout-holds-Ricketts scenario.","signal":"Cook Political Report race rating shift","metric":"Cook Political Report's published rating for the Nebraska Senate race","threshold":"rating moves to Toss Up or more competitive","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-20","source":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings","probability":0.9285714285714286,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.9285714285714286,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":12,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"Cook Political Report rated the Nebraska Senate race 'Likely Republican' as of Oct 20, 2026, not 'Toss Up,' per cookpolitical.com.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.071,"worlds_right":0,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.8622448979591837,"brier_control":0.12249999999999998},{"event":"A major prediction market's contract for Osborn to win the Nebraska Senate seat trades above 40 percent implied probability on 2026-10-24.","tests":"Separates the Osborn-flips scenario from the stays-tied or Ricketts-holds scenarios.","signal":"Prediction market pricing for Osborn","metric":"Implied probability of an Osborn win on a major prediction market","threshold":"above 40 percent implied probability","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-24","source":"https://polymarket.com","probability":0.8571428571428571,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.8571428571428571,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":11,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"Polymarket showed Osborn at ~26-28% implied probability of winning the Nebraska Senate seat as of mid-to-late October 2026, below the 40% threshold, per polymarket.com.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.143,"worlds_right":1,"actual_value":28,"actual_label":"~28% Osborn odds (Polymarket)","brier":0.7346938775510203,"brier_control":0.12249999999999998},{"event":"The RealClearPolling average for the Nebraska Senate race shows Osborn ahead of Ricketts by any margin, crossing from trailing or tied into a lead, as of 2026-10-24.","tests":"Separates worlds where turnout and favorability shifts push Osborn into an outright polling lead from worlds where the contest stays tied, Ricketts' hidden turnout edge holds, or Ricketts stays nominally ahead.","signal":"Polling average flips to Osborn lead","metric":"RealClearPolling average margin between Osborn and Ricketts (positive means Osborn ahead)","threshold":"0 points (tied to leading)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-10-24","source":"https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/nebraska/2026/osborn-vs-ricketts","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.4,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"Multiple aggregators (FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ) showed Ricketts leading Osborn by +1 to +2.4 points as of Oct 24, 2026; no polling average showed Osborn ahead, per fiftyplusone.news.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.714,"worlds_right":9,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":0.08163265306122448,"brier_control":0.16000000000000003},{"event":"Nebraska Secretary of State early voting data shows non-Republican registered voters at 45 percent or more of returned ballots as of 2026-10-26.","tests":"Separates the early-vote-locks-in-Osborn-edge scenario from the hidden-Republican-turnout scenario.","signal":"Early vote party composition","metric":"Share of returned early ballots not registered Republican","threshold":"45 percent or more of returned early ballots","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-26","source":"https://sos.nebraska.gov/elections","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"ambiguous","outcome_note":"Official Nebraska SOS party-breakdown data for returned general-election early ballots as of Oct 26, 2026 was not publicly available in searchable sources at time of review.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A public poll released on or before 2026-10-17 shows Ricketts' net favorability at negative 15 points or worse, below the negative 10 baseline.","tests":"Separates worlds where an external shock (a badly timed Trump rally remark or a wartime fuel/fertilizer price spike squeezing farmers) actively deepens Ricketts' unpopularity from worlds where his negative 10 favorability simply holds steady, recovers, or is offset by a hidden Republican turnout edg.","signal":"Ricketts' favorability sinks further","metric":"Ricketts' net favorability (favorable minus unfavorable) in a public poll","threshold":"-15","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-10-17","source":"https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/nebraska/ricketts","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.35,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"Most recent public poll found (Osborn-commissioned, August 2026) showed Ricketts net favorability at –10 (44% favorable, 54% unfavorable); no October 2026 poll showing –15 or worse found (https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/nebraska-senate-independent-dan-osborn-pete-ricketts).","settled_on":"2026-10-19","closeness":0.786,"worlds_right":10,"actual_value":-10,"actual_label":"Ricketts net fav –10 in Aug 2026 poll (latest)","brier":0.04591836734693877,"brier_control":0.12249999999999998}]},{"run_id":"e15ca378","question":"As private equity and conglomerates keep buying up indie beauty labels, will the consumer backlash documented this week by BeautyMatter and Clutch's loyalty survey actually hurt sales, or is the outrage just noise that fades by the holidays?","recorded":"2026-10-10","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2026-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":8.74,"rough":-1.05,"worlds":[{"value":5.4,"low":4,"high":6.4},{"value":3.8,"low":2,"high":5.2},{"value":2.8,"low":1.2,"high":4.4},{"value":4.8,"low":3.3,"high":6.4},{"value":2.4,"low":0.8,"high":4.6},{"value":4.3,"low":2.6,"high":6.1},{"value":4.3,"low":2.1,"high":6.4},{"value":2.3,"low":0.6,"high":4},{"value":2.8,"low":1,"high":4.6},{"value":4.3,"low":2.5,"high":6},{"value":4.2,"low":1.8,"high":6.8},{"value":4.6,"low":3,"high":6.1}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey report covering November 2026, for Health and Personal Care Stores, shows year over year sales growth below 4.0 percent when released in December 2026.","tests":"Separates the fade-and-fine world from the dented-growth and portfolio-contagion worlds.","signal":"Official retail data shows whether health and personal care spending slowed into the holidays","metric":"U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Health and Personal Care Stores (NAICS 446), year over year percent change","threshold":"below 4.0% year over year growth","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-23","source":"https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"WWD, Glossy, or BeautyMatter reports before 2026-11-20 that at least one indie beauty acquisition's earnout payout was reduced, missed, or renegotiated because of underperformance tied to the consumer backlash.","tests":"Separates worlds where backlash visibly hits deal economics and valuations from worlds where deals hold up throu.","signal":"Backlash-driven earnout miss reported","metric":"whether trade press reports an acquisition earnout being reduced, missed, or renegotiated due to backlash-linked underperformance","threshold":"at least 1 reported case","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-20","source":"https://wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"WWD, Glossy, or BeautyMatter reports before 2026-12-10 that a founder who had been pushed out, sidelined, or silent after an acquisition publicly returns to a brand-facing role, such as a new ad campaign, interview, or spokesperson appearance.","tests":"Separates worlds where trust is rebuilt through a visible founder comeback (cooperative deal rewrites, finance reversing course and putting the founder back on camera, private founder networks forcing retention) from worlds where founders stay exited, silent, or sidelined through the holidays (backl.","signal":"Sidelined founder publicly reinstated","metric":"whether a founder previously pushed out or silent after an acquisition publicly returns to a brand-facing role","threshold":"at least 1 reported reinstatement","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-12-10","source":"https://www.glossy.co/beauty/","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Glossy, WWD, Modern Retail, or Business of Fashion reports before 2026-11-10 documented evidence, such as Amazon Beauty bestseller movement or TikTok Shop sales data, that consumers have already switched away from a specific backlash-named acquired brand rather than merely posting complaints.","tests":"Separates worlds where switching happens fast and is already measurable in e-commerce data (outrage rerouting dollars within days, the inference becoming self-fulfilling before announcements, portfolio contagion pushing defectors to Amazon and TikTok Shop, finance's internal override triggering imme.","signal":"Early hard evidence of real switching","metric":"whether trade press documents concrete sales-data evidence of consumers switching away from a named acquired brand, as opposed to only online complaints","threshold":"at least 1 documented case","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-10","source":"https://www.modernretail.co/vertical/beauty/","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"BeautyMatter, Glossy, or WWD report before 2026-12-24 that a beauty acquisition includes publicly disclosed founder veto or retention linked earnout terms.","tests":"Separates the cooperative deal structure path from the finance-overrides-founders path.","signal":"Deal attorneys and acquirers publicly commit to founder protection terms before year end","metric":"Trade press coverage (BeautyMatter, Glossy, or WWD) of a beauty acquisition announcing founder veto or retention linked earnout terms","threshold":"at least one publicly disclosed deal with founder protection terms","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://beautymatter.com/","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"f699b1cc","question":"Will lawsuits over covert recording and the 'creep glasses' backlash slow demand for Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses and its new $1,299 AI-powered VR glasses, or will consumer purchase intent keep holding steady through 2027?","recorded":"2026-10-09","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-12-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"A US federal or state court docket shows an injunction requiring Meta to disable or materially restrict Ray-Ban camera recording by 2027-01-07.","tests":"Separates the camera-line-frozen branch from the contained-backlash and market-split branches.","signal":"A real court order forcing Meta to limit recording, not just a pending lawsuit","metric":"Presence of a US court injunction requiring Meta to disable or materially restrict camera recording on Ray-Ban smart glasses, as searchable via court record databases","threshold":"an injunction order appears on a public docket","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-01-07","source":"https://www.courtlistener.com","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.05,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A media or legal tracker documents bans or restrictions on camera-enabled smart glasses at 5 or more distinct US venues, institutions, or jurisdictions by 2027-01-07.","tests":"Separates worlds where bans accelerate quickly beyond a few courts and pubs into schools, transit, airports, or widespread venue de-shelving from worlds where restrictions stay narrowly confined to a handful of courts an.","signal":"Bans spread past courts and pubs","metric":"count of distinct US venues, institutions, or jurisdictions (courts, pubs, schools, transit systems, airports, etc.) reporting bans or restrictions on camera-enabled smart glasses","threshold":"5 or more distinct venues/institutions","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-07","source":"https://www.reuters.com/technology/","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Google Trends shows US search interest for 'creep glasses' staying below an index score of 20 for the week of 2027-01-04.","tests":"Separates the narrative-driven market-split branch from the backlash-contained branch.","signal":"Online narrative intensity around 'creep glasses' fading or escalating","metric":"Google Trends US search interest index (0 to 100 scale) for the term 'creep glasses'","threshold":"below an index score of 20","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-07","source":"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=creep%20glasses","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A major competitor (Apple, Google, Samsung, or Snap) publicly launches a consumer smart glasses product marketed primarily around privacy or safety features by 2027-06-30.","tests":"Separates worlds where rivals explicitly roll out privacy-first or safety-branded glasses to peel off trust-sensitive buyers from worlds where Meta keeps its position without a dedicated privacy-brande.","signal":"Rival launches privacy-branded smart glasses","metric":"whether a major competitor publicly launches a consumer smart glasses product marketed primarily on privacy or safety features","threshold":"at least one such launch occurs","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.theverge.com/smart-glasses","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"An industry smart glasses market tracker reports Meta's unit market share falling below 50% by 2027-06-30.","tests":"Separates the market-split-by-trust branch from Meta retaining category dominance.","signal":"Rivals visibly taking share with privacy-branded glasses","metric":"Meta's unit market share of the smart glasses category, as reported in industry tracker data","threshold":"below 50% unit share","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.idc.com/trackers","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"A consumer purchase-intent survey tracker shows US intent for Meta smart glasses below 45% by 2027-09-30.","tests":"Separates calm or contained branches from strained-to-severe demand branches.","signal":"Consumer purchase intent surveys showing a real pullback rather than recovery","metric":"Share of US consumers reporting positive purchase intent for Meta smart glasses in consumer survey trackers","threshold":"below 45% positive purchase intent","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-09-30","source":"https://conjointly.com","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.3,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"9a5c2824","question":"After the UK's 1 October 2026 package of 31 sanctions hits Russia's shadow fleet LNG vessels ahead of winter, will European and UK gas prices rise measurably by January 2027, or will shadow fleet rerouting absorb the impact?","recorded":"2026-10-08","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-01-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The ICE Dutch TTF front-month futures settlement price is up 15% or more from its 30 September 2026 close on 1 December 2026.","tests":"Separates an early rerouting-absorbs outcome from scenarios where bottlenecks or cooperation squeeze supply quickly.","signal":"Early price jump on sanctions fallout","metric":"ICE Dutch TTF front-month futures settlement price, percent change from its 30 September 2026 close","threshold":"15% or more above the 30 September 2026 close","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-01","source":"https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.18,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"EU aggregated gas storage fill level, per AGSI+, is below the five-year seasonal average on 15 December 2026.","tests":"Separates scenarios where bottlenecks and cold weather genuinely bind from ones where buffers and alternative cargoes cushion the market.","signal":"Storage draining faster than a normal winter","metric":"EU aggregated gas storage fill level, as published by Gas Infrastructure Europe's AGSI+ platform","threshold":"below the five-year seasonal average","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-15","source":"https://agsi.gie.eu/","probability":0.6428571428571429,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The UK OFSI consolidated sanctions list names more than 31 shadow fleet LNG vessels by 5 January 2027.","tests":"Separates the multilateral cooperation branch, where enforcement keeps widening, from branches where enforcement stalls or goes selective.","signal":"Sanctions enforcement keeps expanding or stalls","metric":"Number of vessels designated on the UK OFSI consolidated sanctions list tied to shadow fleet LNG shipping","threshold":"more than 31 vessels designated","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-01-05","source":"https://sanctionssearchapp.ofsi.hmtreasury.gov.uk/","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The Council of the EU formally adopts its 22nd sanctions package targeting Russia's shadow fleet LNG vessels on or before 15 November 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where the UK and EU sanctions land together and cooperation closes the re-flagging loophole (prices climb steadily toward a severe premium) from worlds where the EU package slips by about a month, letting vessels re-flag to Russian registry and evade enforcement before combined pres.","signal":"Whether the EU's own shadow-fleet sanctions package lands on schedule or gets delayed, separating worlds where cooperation closes loopholes quickly from worlds where a late EU package lets Russia re-flag vessels before enforcement bites","metric":"Formal adoption date of the EU's 22nd sanctions package targeting Russia's shadow fleet, as published by the Council of the EU","threshold":"15 November 2026 (on-time adoption vs. delay past this date)","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2026-11-15","source":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia/","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.25,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The ICE Dutch TTF front-month futures settlement price is below 10% above its 30 September 2026 close on 24 January 2027.","tests":"Confirms the rerouting-absorbs branch versus all scenarios with measurable or severe price pressure.","signal":"Final check on whether rerouting kept prices calm","metric":"ICE Dutch TTF front-month futures settlement price, percent change from its 30 September 2026 close","threshold":"under 10% above the 30 September 2026 close","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-01-24","source":"https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.55,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"f62a8de3","question":"After Jaguar's 2024 rebrand drew mockery and dealer pushback, the brand just unveiled a $130,000 electric GT. Will the car actually sell, or does the earlier backlash still define how buyers in 2026 see the brand?","recorded":"2026-10-08","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2027-03-31","question_outcome":null,"scale":null,"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"Jaguar or JLR corporate communications publicly disclose a Type 01 reservation count of at least 2,000 units by 2026-12-31.","tests":"Separates stabilizing or cooperative paths, where Jaguar leads with real numbers, from the paths where silence lets the backlash narrative fill the gap.","signal":"Jaguar publicly shares Type 01 order numbers","metric":"Publicly disclosed Type 01 reservation or pre-order count","threshold":"at least 2,000 disclosed reservations","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://media.jaguar.com","probability":0.07142857142857142,"probability_control":0.05,"probability_worlds":0.07142857142857142,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":0,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":false,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Tata Motors' Q3 FY2026-27 earnings call confirms continued Jaguar funding with no strategic review announced, by 2026-11-15.","tests":"Separates paths where Tata freezes capital or opens a review from paths where it keeps backing the relaunch.","signal":"Tata commits fresh capital rather than opening a review","metric":"Tata Motors / JLR earnings call commentary on Jaguar capital allocation","threshold":"no restructuring or strategic review announced","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-11-15","source":"https://www.tatamotors.com/investors/","probability":0.7142857142857143,"probability_control":0.85,"probability_worlds":0.7142857142857143,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":9,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"JLR confirms Type 01 production at Solihull remains on its originally announced schedule, with no delay announced, as of 2026-12-20.","tests":"Separates delay driven or supply squeeze scenarios from baseline and cooperative recovery scenarios.","signal":"Solihull production stays on schedule","metric":"Confirmed Type 01 production timeline at Solihull plant","threshold":"no delay announcement","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-20","source":"https://media.jaguar.com","probability":0.6428571428571429,"probability_control":0.65,"probability_worlds":0.6428571428571429,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":8,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The count of active Jaguar franchised dealers in the UK, per Jaguar's retailer locator or SMMT data, falls below 40 by 2027-03-20.","tests":"Separates dealer collapse or isolation scenarios from paths where the dealer network stabilizes.","signal":"UK Jaguar dealer count keeps shrinking","metric":"Number of active Jaguar franchised dealers in the UK","threshold":"below 40 active UK dealers","direction":"down","resolves":"2027-03-20","source":"https://www.smmt.co.uk","probability":0.2857142857142857,"probability_control":0.45,"probability_worlds":0.2857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":3,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Elon Musk posts on X or is quoted in major media mocking or criticizing Jaguar's Type 01 launch at least once between 2026-10-08 and 2027-03-20.","tests":"Separates worlds where a safety scare or leaked-numbers narrative reignites outside mockery (prototype fire compounds backlash, late reservation leak keeps mockery alive) from worlds where the launch proceeds without renewed celebrity pile-on (cooperative rebound, clean stabilizing launch, or isolat.","signal":"High-profile public mockery resumes","metric":"whether Elon Musk publicly criticizes or mocks the Type 01 launch on X or in a reported interview","threshold":"0 to at least 1 public mocking statement","direction":"crosses","resolves":"2027-03-20","source":"https://twitter.com/elonmusk","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.5,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]},{"run_id":"fb5b5dd7","question":"With Fed minutes released on 7 October 2026 showing most officials expect another rate increase this year despite Trump's objections, will the Fed actually hike again at its 27 to 28 October meeting, days before the midterm elections?","recorded":"2026-10-08","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":"2026-10-28","question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":3.4261852771698167,"rough":5.080722084245275,"worlds":[{"value":4,"low":3.75,"high":4.25},{"value":4.4,"low":4.1,"high":4.6},{"value":4.375,"low":4.125,"high":4.625},{"value":4.5,"low":4.25,"high":4.75},{"value":4.5,"low":4.25,"high":4.75},{"value":4.5,"low":4.25,"high":4.75},{"value":4.4,"low":4.1,"high":4.85},{"value":4.4,"low":4.1,"high":4.65},{"value":4.5,"low":4.25,"high":4.75},{"value":3.88,"low":3.63,"high":4.13},{"value":4.4,"low":4.1,"high":4.7},{"value":4.375,"low":4.125,"high":4.625}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"The BLS Core CPI year-over-year figure for September 2026, released around October 14, 2026, is above 3.0 percent.","tests":"Sticky core inflation above this level supports the hike-anyway or stagflation-shock branches; a cooler reading supports the hold-then-December branch.","signal":"September inflation reading stays hot or cools","metric":"BLS Consumer Price Index, core year-over-year change, September 2026 data","threshold":"above 3.0 percent year-over-year","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-14","source":"https://www.bls.gov/cpi/","probability":0.7857142857142857,"probability_control":0.82,"probability_worlds":0.7857142857142857,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":10,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"BLS September 2026 CPI release (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm): all items less food and energy rose 2.6 percent over the past 12 months, not above 3.0 percent.","settled_on":"2026-10-17","closeness":0.214,"worlds_right":2,"actual_value":2.6,"actual_label":"Core CPI 2.6% y/y, BLS Sept 2026","brier":0.6173469387755102,"brier_control":0.6723999999999999},{"event":"The CME FedWatch Tool's implied probability of a hike at the October meeting, as of October 20, 2026, is above 50 percent.","tests":"Odds above 50 percent lean toward the Fed Hikes in October Despite Opposition branch; odds below lean toward the October Hold branches.","signal":"Market-implied odds of an October hike","metric":"CME FedWatch Tool implied probability of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27 to 28 FOMC meeting","threshold":"above 50 percent implied probability","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-20","source":"https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.18,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"CME FedWatch showed hike probability at ~13-17% as of Oct 20, 2026, far below the 50% threshold, per octagonai.co.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.643,"worlds_right":8,"actual_value":15,"actual_label":"~13-17% hike probability Oct 20","brier":0.12755102040816327,"brier_control":0.0324},{"event":"The FRED 10 Year Treasury rate (DGS10) closes above 4.5 percent on any trading day between October 8 and October 20, 2026.","tests":"A yield spike above this level would support the October Hold Triggers Credibility Damage branch over a calmer hold or a clean hike.","signal":"Treasury yields spike on politicization fears","metric":"10 Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (FRED series DGS10)","threshold":"above 4.5 percent","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-20","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","probability":0.5,"probability_control":0.97,"probability_worlds":0.5,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":6,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"hit","outcome_note":"FRED DGS10 ranged from 5.09% to 5.24% throughout Oct 8-20, 2026, with every close above 4.5%, per fred.stlouisfed.org/data/DGS10.","settled_on":"2026-10-26","closeness":0.5,"worlds_right":6,"actual_value":5.09,"actual_label":"5.09% lowest in window (Oct 16)","brier":0.25,"brier_control":0.0009000000000000016},{"event":"The FRED 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026, released October 15, 2026, is above 230,000.","tests":"Claims above this level support the dovish-hold branches; claims staying low supports the hike-anyway or stagflation-shock branches.","signal":"Labor market softening ahead of the meeting","metric":"Initial jobless claims, 4-week moving average (FRED series IC4WSA)","threshold":"above 230,000","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-10-15","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.6,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":true,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"resolved","outcome":"miss","outcome_note":"FRED IC4WSA (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA): 4-week average for week ending 2026-10-10 is 198,500, well under 230,000.","settled_on":"2026-10-17","closeness":0.429,"worlds_right":5,"actual_value":198500,"actual_label":"4-wk avg claims 198,500, week ending Oct 10","brier":0.32653061224489793,"brier_control":0.36}]},{"run_id":"ce653852","question":"As a Wall Street Journal-sourced report on family estrangement over politics, religion and identity spreads through local papers this week, will national survey data by the end of 2026 show adult child estrangement rising faster than in the past decade?","recorded":"2026-10-08","method":"multiverse-2","deadline":null,"question_outcome":null,"scale":{"unit":"%","calm":26,"rough":39,"worlds":[{"value":28.5,"low":26.5,"high":31},{"value":28,"low":24,"high":32},{"value":29,"low":23,"high":35},{"value":23.5,"low":20,"high":27},{"value":27,"low":24,"high":31},{"value":26,"low":21,"high":31},{"value":30,"low":23,"high":38},{"value":31,"low":26,"high":36},{"value":30,"low":25,"high":36},{"value":29,"low":25,"high":34},{"value":27,"low":23,"high":32},{"value":31,"low":26,"high":36}]},"map":null,"series":null,"predictions":[{"event":"By December 31, 2026, a nationally representative US survey or research report explicitly shows point-in-time (current) parent-child estrangement flat or lower than the prior year even as lifetime cumulative ever-estranged prevalence rises.","tests":"Separates worlds where economic pressure, a viral reconciliation story, or a malpractice backlash visibly slow new ruptures even though the ratchet-style lifetime number still climbs, versus worlds where no such current-vs-lifetime split is reported and the rise looks uniform.","signal":"Current-rate vs lifetime-rate divergence reported","metric":"Year-over-year change in point-in-time (current) parent-child estrangement prevalence, as distinct from lifetime cumulative estrangement, in a national survey or research report","threshold":"0 percentage points year-over-year change in current-rate measure","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/family-relationships/","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.12,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":null,"kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"The first published 2026 national estrangement survey reports cumulative ever-estranged prevalence at or above 30 percent by December 31, 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where widened definitions (hidden financial ties, extended family network counted) push the headline number well past the old high-20s baseline, versus worlds where the uptick stays modest and lands in the high-20s.","signal":"Survey crosses 30 percent mark","metric":"Cumulative ever-estranged prevalence reported in the first published 2026 national survey","threshold":"30 percent","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.wsj.com/us-news/family-estrangement-2026","probability":0.35714285714285715,"probability_control":0.33,"probability_worlds":0.35714285714285715,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":4,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"Google Trends weekly search interest index for family estrangement (United States) falls below 20 for the week of December 28, 2026.","tests":"Distinguishes a short-lived attention spike (most scenarios) from a sustained narrative wave that keeps driving labeling behavior.","signal":"Whether public attention to the story is already fading","metric":"Google Trends weekly relative search interest index for the term family estrangement in the United States","threshold":"below 20 on the 0-100 scale","direction":"down","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=family%20estrangement&geo=US","probability":0.5714285714285714,"probability_control":0.75,"probability_worlds":0.5714285714285714,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":7,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"By December 31, 2026, a published report or major news article explicitly credits church-based or therapist-led reconciliation programs with slowing new parent-child estrangements during 2026.","tests":"Separates worlds where churches and therapists built visible reconciliation infrastructure that measurably dented new ruptures, versus worlds where the dominant story stays relabeling, definitional fights, or cascading family rifts with no credited reconciliation push.","signal":"Reconciliation programs get public credit","metric":"Whether a major news article or research report explicitly credits structured reconciliation efforts (church-based programs, therapist protocol changes) with reducing new parent-child estrangement starts in 2026","threshold":"at least one such published report or article","direction":"up","resolves":"2026-12-31","source":"https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases","probability":0.21428571428571427,"probability_control":0.05,"probability_worlds":0.21428571428571427,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":2,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"calm","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null},{"event":"By June 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed study or major research-institute brief concludes most of the 2026 estrangement increase reflects broader definitions rather than new ruptures.","tests":"Tests whether the relabeling and definitional-inflation branches (combined about 50 percent) get formally confirmed after the fact.","signal":"Whether researchers later conclude the rise was mostly measurement, not behavior","metric":"Publication of a peer-reviewed study or major research-institute brief characterizing the 2026 estrangement trend","threshold":"an explicit published conclusion attributing the rise mainly to measurement or definitional change","direction":"up","resolves":"2027-06-30","source":"https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/family-relationships/","probability":0.42857142857142855,"probability_control":0.15,"probability_worlds":0.42857142857142855,"probability_headline":"worlds","worlds_yes":5,"worlds_voted":12,"severe_side":"severe","kind":null,"warned":null,"splits":true,"pointed":null,"status":"pending","outcome":null,"outcome_note":null,"settled_on":null,"closeness":null,"worlds_right":null,"actual_value":null,"actual_label":null,"brier":null,"brier_control":null}]}]},"anchored":{"rule":"Every brief completed on the production system that starts from market data is listed here. None can be removed. Its likelihood came from that data, so it is scored apart and never counted in the sections above.","runs":0,"predictions":0,"resolved":0,"pending":0,"hit_rate":null,"tripwires":{"signposts":0,"warned":{"yes":0,"of":0},"splits":{"yes":0,"of":0},"pointed":{"yes":0,"of":0},"direct":{"signposts":0,"pointed":{"yes":0,"of":0}},"context":{"signposts":0,"pointed":{"yes":0,"of":0}},"runs":{"pointed_right":0,"of":0}},"maps":{"judged":0,"covered":{"yes":0,"of":0},"sharp":{"yes":0,"of":0},"partitioned":{"yes":0,"of":0},"success":{"yes":0,"of":0}},"brier":{"n":0,"mean":null,"coin_baseline":0.25,"n_paired_with_control":0,"mean_paired":null,"control_mean_paired":null},"severity_lean":{"counted":0,"misses":0,"severe_side_misses":0,"calm_side_misses":0,"lean":null},"entries":[],"market_check":{"points":0,"settled":0,"right":0,"share":null}}}